Mississippi-Georgia: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Top-10 SEC Clash
An under-the-lights, cross-divisional SEC matchup between two top-10 teams is on tap for Saturday. It doesn't get much more exciting than that.
The Mississippi Rebels (No. 9) will venture into the undefeated Georgia Bulldogs' (No. 2) territory and look to hand the defending national champions their first loss of the season.
These teams haven't squared off since 2016, when the Rebels pummeled the Bulldogs after losing 10 straight of their previous matchups.
Georgia is three wins away from completing a flawless regular season, but with Saturday will come their stiffest competition yet. The Bulldogs have faced just one currently-ranked opponent, which came in last week's 30-21 victory over the Missouri Tigers.
Ole Miss has had a tougher go of it. They defeated ranked opponents -- the LSU Tigers and Tulane Green Wave -- in impressive fashion but sacrificed their first and only loss to the 13th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (now ranked 8th) earlier this season.
A win for Ole Miss would all but solidify a New Year's Six bid, while a win for Georgia would inch them that much closer to another year of season-long perfection.
The game kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET and can be watched on ESPN.
All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Mississippi at Georgia Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Spread: Georgia -10.5 (-110)
- Total: 58.5
- Moneyline:
- Georgia: -450
- Mississippi: +340
Mississippi at Georgia Matchup Analysis
Georgia hasn't lost a football game in 704 days and hasn't lost at their home fortress Samford Stadium in 1,488 days, so it's clear as day why they are the home favorites this Saturday.
The Bulldogs tout the second-best rank in college football (behind the Michigan Wolverines), and though Ole Miss also finds itself in the top-10 ranks, Georgia leads the way in many key categories.
According to The Power Rank, Georgia's predicted margin of victory against an average team stands at 21.12 (fourth), while Ole Miss has a 13.11 predicted margin of victory (16th).
Ole Miss allows 365.7 yards per game (59th), while Georgia has allowed just 282.2 per game (ninth-least). They are, however, gaining pretty similar ground on offense -- Ole Miss averages 478.9 yards per game (12th) and Georgia is a bit ahead of them with 493.0 (sixth).
Perhaps the biggest discrepancy between these two teams is their ability to convert on third downs. Georgia boasts the fourth-best third-down conversion percentage in the FBS, while Ole Miss falls way behind at the 97th spot.
They are similarly good (and bad) on defense. Georgia allows the third-lowest third-down conversion percentage, while Ole Miss ranks 77th in this regard.
It would be quite an upset for Ole Miss to walk into Georgia's domain and hand the 'Dogs their first loss since 2021, but perhaps this is a more evenly matched game than the aforementioned numbers may indicate.
According to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, Georgia ranks 13th overall while Ole Miss is right behind them in the 15th spot. Ole Miss has already taken down a team in numberFire's top 12, while Georgia has yet to even face a squad that ranks in the top 20.
For Ole Miss to escape Saturday with a victory, they will need to get those third-down conversion numbers up, among other things. But I think Lane Kiffin and the Rebels can make more noise than the spread gives them credit for.
Mississippi at Georgia Best Bet
Mississippi +10.5 (-110)
Three out of nine Georgia games have been kept within 10 points this season, and I think Ole Miss is primed to do just that on Saturday.
The Bulldogs' storied success at home shows that the Athens edge is the real deal, but this team has yet to prove that they can eviscerate top-ranked opponents. Though they hammered a then-ranked Kentucky Wildcats team earlier in the season, the Wildcats were met with three straight losses that proved their mediocracy.
Last week, Georgia matched up against 14th-ranked Missouri in Athens, and the Tigers were able to keep the game within nine.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss has had a difficult enough schedule to afford them some street credit. In fact, ColleyRankings has Ole Miss (eighth) a hair above Georgia (ninth) by their numbers, which place a large emphasis on strength of schedule.
Look for Quinshon Judkins to make a splash against a 54th-ranked Georgia rush defense. Only four running backs have reached the end zone more times than Judkins this season (12 TDs), and he could fare well against a Bulldogs D that allows 3.73 yards per rush (40th).
Jaxson Dart and his offense have been anything but sloppy this season. The Rebels average 0.6 giveaways per game (fourth-fewest), while Georgia averages 1.1 per game (36th). A fast-paced and high-intensity game could see Ole Miss force some big turnovers, which could work wonders if siding with them to cover.
Though this game may seem like Georgia's win for the taking, I feel confident that Ole Miss can keep things fairly close.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.