Michigan-Penn State: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Big Ten Battle

Week 11 offers multiple matchups of top-25 teams but perhaps none as contentious as the game awaiting in State College.

In one of the most anticipated Big Ten clashes of the season, the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines and No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions are set to rumble this weekend in Happy Valley. This meeting will provide high-end talent, unraveling drama and major College Football Playoff ramifications.

Currently, Michigan and Penn State both find themselves within the top 10 of the latest CFP rankings. That means each institution enters this Saturday's contest with their respective national title hopes very much alive.

At 9-0, the Wolverines are currently favored to go on the road and defeat the Nittany Lions. However, that will obviously prove easier said than done.

With kickoff at PSU swiftly approaching, let's dive into the odds and lines, keeping an emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Michigan at Penn State Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline and Total

Kickoff: Saturday (Nov. 11), 12 p.m. ET on FOX

Spread: Michigan -4.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

• Michigan: -215
• Penn State: +176

Total: 45.5 (-105/-115)

Michigan at Penn State Matchup Analysis

Let us not kid ourselves, here -- this conference matchup has been circled on the calendar since the respective schedules were released.

Entering 2023, the Big Ten -- one of the proudest football circuits in America -- was largely seen as a three-horse race: Michigan, PSU and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Fast forward to now, and those three programs are the only Big Ten representatives on the current CFP standings (all within the top 10, too).

Simply, if Penn State hopes to keep their current playoff hopes alive (nine-to-one odds to make the college football playoff, per FanDuel Sportsbook), they'll need to top Michigan at home. The Nittany Lions, sitting at 8-1 overall, suffered their lone blemish this year against the aforementioned Ohio State at The 'Shoe. If PSU can upset the Wolverines in Happy Valley, that will make next week's rankings one not to miss.

Of course, no informed soul is expecting Michigan to go down lightly. Despite the majority of the headlines in Ann Arbor pertaining to an alleged illegal sign-stealing investigation, U-M has continued to dominate on the field. Not only are the Wolverines undefeated, but they have won their nine contests in 2023 by an average margin of 34 PPG.

Since renouncing independence for the Big Ten in 1993, Penn State and Michigan have competed in 26 head-to-head games on the gridiron. Through that span, the Wolverines hold the edge, winning 16 of those 26 matchups, including the past two. For the most recent meeting in State College (2021), the Maize and Blue won a 21-17 chess match.

This Saturday's game will feature myriad talented players but just one Heisman Trophy hopeful: Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The junior signal-caller has been a master of precision in 2023, showing 21 total touchdowns and the second-best QBR (92.3) in the nation right now. At FanDuel Sportsbook, McCarthy yields a +1600 clip in the Heisman market.

Returning home following a statement victory at the Maryland Terrapins, Penn State regained their confidence with a 50-piece. As it stands now, the Nittany Lions are a top-six team in FBS in scoring offense (40.2 PPG) and scoring defense (11.9 PPG).

Like Michigan, PSU is also led by a talented passer. With a staggering 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, quarterback Drew Aller has been dealing all season. Still, as alluded to, both defenses will come ready to play in this one.

Allowing just 6.7 PPG in 2023, Michigan has been the most dominant defense in the country. Defensive back Mike Sainristil has already nabbed three interceptions while D-lineman Josaiah Stewart leads the team with 6.5 tackles for a loss.

On the other side, the Lions -- namely defensive end Adisa Isaac (6.5 sacks) and linebacker Curtis Jacobs (5 TFL) -- will look to keep Michigan tailback Blake Corum out of the end zone. The shifty runner has already scored 16 touchdowns this year.

Michigan at Penn State Best Bet

Under 45.5 (-115)

Initially, I was a strong proponent of the Nittany Lions against the spread (ATS) here. However, that number has fallen from +5.5 to +4.5 between Tuesday and Wednesday. Considering how close these conference foes are on numberFire's power rankings (U-M is first in FBS while Penn State is fourth), I have been deterred into a play on the total instead: under 45.5.

I understand that 45 with a hook is far from the highest figure on the board, but I believe this one could play out in stalemate style. With respect to the offensive-minded head coaches in Jim Harbaugh and James Franklin, I think the defenses might be in a more favorable spot this Saturday in Happy Valley.

Not that these players aren't used to it, but it will be cold and cloudy in State College this weekend -- temperatures will be around 40 degrees for kickoff. In a conference rivalry game, I can see these two offenses starting slowly. After all, that is what occurred in this matchup last time Penn State hosted. As mentioned, on that day in November 2021, Michigan reigned supreme, 21-17.

Both sides are heading into their toughest game of the season to this point -- especially for Michigan. Genuinely, I think the defenses here are ahead of the offenses. On ESPN's latest SP+ rankings, the Wolverines' defense is tops in the nation (9.7 rating) while PSU's defensive unit is fourth (12.2).

With familiar foes showcasing top defenses in less-than-ideal weather, under 45.5 is my best bet; let's hope for a "three yards and a cloud of dust" type of contest!

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.