The 2023-24 NFL season is less than two months away, which means it's time to start preparing for fantasy football drafts!

With the start of Baltimore Ravens' training camp just days away, let's take a look at running back J.K. Dobbins, who finished last season with the second-most rushing yards on Baltimore despite missing eight games.

J.K. Dobbins Overview

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 74.20 points
2023 Projected Points: 173.21 points
numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: RB25
2023 Projected Stats:

• 238.02 carries
• 1,073.45 rushing yards
• 7.17 rushing touchdowns
• 23.57 receptions
• 165.55 receiving yards
• 1.42 receiving TDs

J.K. Dobbins 2023 Fantasy Outlook

Post-Hype Discounts and the Difficulty of Injury Recovery

Dobbins entered the NFL with high expectations after the Ravens selected him in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft. Since then, he has been productive, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 258 attempts, but a combination of injuries and backfield competition has prevented him from having a truly impactful fantasy season.

While Dobbins missed the entire 2021-22 season with a torn ACL, LCL, and meniscus, he still had a decently high ADP heading into last season with the expectation that he would be ready for Week 1.

He ended up making his season debut in Week 3, playing four games, and then going back on injured reserve after opting for a clean-up procedure to "speed up his recovery". He returned in Week 14 and was very impactful over a four-game stretch, averaging 14.3 carries and 99.3 rushing yards (6.96 yards per carry) per game.

However, his production came too late to change the narrative around his fantasy season. Dobbins did not pay off at his preseason ADP and is now viewed as injury prone after two seasons impacted by the same injury.

Entering this season, that narrative is unlikely to change after Dobbins was placed on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list on July 21st.

The truth is that the road back from a serious knee injury is a long one. Despite having less recovery time than Dobbins did heading into last season, New York Jets running back Breece Hall has an ADP of 30.8 with the expectation that he will be ready for Week 1. Hall's skill set and involvement in the passing game give him a much higher ceiling, but the injury risk is similar. Being "ready" to play and being able to perform consistently at an elite level, week in and week out, are two different things.

Barring additional news surrounding his placement on the PUP list, Dobbins is now nearly two full years removed from his knee injury and should be as healthy as he has been at any point since his rookie season. The combination of his placement on the PUP list and the Ravens' decision to sign veteran running back Melvin Gordon to a one-year deal should cause his average draft position to decline even further in the coming weeks.

Potential Changes in 2023

The Ravens' offense is expected to undergo a major shift this season after bringing in Todd Monken as offensive coordinator. Monken is expected to run a more pass-heavy offense in what would be a drastic change for a Baltimore side that has operated as a run-first team under Greg Roman during the Lamar Jackson era.

This offseason, Baltimore signed Jackson to a record-breaking extension and used significant resources to bring in wide receiver Odell Beckham and rookie first-round draft pick Zay Flowers. Combined with tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Rashod Bateman, who was removed from the reserve/did not report list on July 23rd, the Ravens' offense will enter the season with the most talented group of pass-catchers Jackson has ever worked with.

All of this bodes well for Dobbins, who should benefit from a more efficient offense. If Baltimore can effectively operate a more pass-heavy game plan, it will prevent defenses from being able to key in on the run game as frequently as they have in the past.

Dobbins will still have to split work with Jackson and Gus Edwards and remains unlikely to be significantly involved in the passing game. But these changes should result in increased efficiency on the touches he does receive and more scoring opportunities overall.

Opportunity Cost: Where is Dobbins Being Drafted?

There is an opportunity cost to every draft pick in fantasy football. When you choose to draft a player, you are also choosing to give up the opportunity to draft other players with similar average draft positions (ADP). Thinking about these tradeoffs as you maneuver through a draft can help you build a better roster.

Dobbins is currently the 24th running back coming off the board in FanDuel's best-ball contests. On FantasyPros, his best-ball ADP is 55.3.

Selecting Dobbins at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers D.J. Moore, Drake London, and Christian Watson, running back Dameon Pierce, and quarterback Justin Herbert.

Moore has years of proven production in the NFL, but the Chicago Bears' offense could limit his volume. Although London has similar volume concerns in the Atlanta Falcons' run-heavy offense, he did impress on the limited opportunities as a rookie. Watson has the chance to ascend in year two but there is plenty of uncertainty with Jordan Love under center.

While Pierce performed well as a rookie, the outlook for the Houston Texans' offense remains uncertain after an offseason full of changes. Herbet looks primed for success after the Los Angeles Chargers brought Kellen Moore in to run the offense, but his lack of rushing upside leaves little room for error at his current draft position.

Final Verdict

With Dobbins set to open training camp on the PUP list, there are better options available at his current draft position. The wide receivers being selected near him, particularly London and Watson, offer upside as young ascending players with breakout potential. Both have downside scenarios, but the talent is there to overcome them.

Herbert is a fine selection over Dobbins in this range, as well, depending on how you want to approach the quarterback position. While he lacks rushing upside, the additions of Kellen Moore and rookie first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston, put the pieces in place for Herbert to access a sky-high ceiling.

But the longer Dobbins remains on the PUP list, the further his ADP should decline. He is eligible to come off the list at any time during training camp. Eventually, he will reach a range where his potential upside is worth the risk.

Some players see their ADP rise after they are activated off the PUP list, but that may not be the case for Dobbins. Drafters are especially skeptical after the past two years and may not trust his ability to stay on the field, even with positive news.

While being skeptical is understandable, the truth remains that Dobbins will be a full two years removed from his initial injury by Week 1. When healthy, he is the primary ball carrier on an offense that has plenty of reasons for optimism this season, and he has demonstrated the ability to be an impactful fantasy player as recently as the end of last season.

Wait for Dobbins' draft position to decline further based on recent news, but if reports around his knee look positive once he's activated off the PUP list, don't be afraid to bet on his talent and role in this Ravens offense.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.