Is There Value in the Last Unbeaten Team Market?

We're less than two weeks away from Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season but there's still plenty of time to check out FanDuel Sportsbook's season specials market.

While Super Bowl futures are at the front of everyone's minds, what about something with way less importance but with much better odds?

The last unbeaten team market.

Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles won their first eight games to finish as the NFL's last unbeaten team despite being as high as +1400 to do so before the season.

Clearly, there is value to be had, but where?

Let's take a look at the market on FanDuel before we check out the recent trends and then dive into some of my favorite candidates to be the last unbeaten team in the 2023-24 NFL season.

Last Unbeaten Trends

Here's how the last unbeaten team has fared over the past five years, starting with last year's Eagles.

The last unbeaten team has started with at least seven wins in each of the last five years. Though we've seen an occasional 3-0 start get it done, since 2000, the average win total for the last unbeaten team is 8.6 wins.

For our purposes, we'll be citing the strength of schedule (SOS) for teams based purely on the first 10 weeks.

Looking at the NFL win totals from FanDuel, we use the same regression process used in Brandon Gdula's Ranking All 32 NFL Schedules piece to rank each team's schedule in terms of average opponent strength (by expected point differential), sorted from easiest to hardest.

Below, I dive into some of the more popular names and values in the last unbeaten team market.

Check out numberFire's NFL Team Rankings and FanDuel Research's win-total analysis for an in-depth preview of all 32 NFL teams.

Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs (+750)

• nF Ranking: 1st
• Week 1-10 SOS: 22nd
• Longest 2022 Streak: 5 (twice)

Last year's Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs are a deserving favorite despite the 11th-toughest schedule in the first 10 weeks. They have some brutal road games early, notably against the Jaguars in Week 2 and Jets in Week 4, but if they can get through those first four weeks unscathed they'll be in good shape.

They do have to face Miami's blazing-fast offense a week after suffering through the thin air in Denver, but that's not until Week 9. The Chiefs have the added benefit of a Week 10 bye and given Patrick Mahomes' track record, it wouldn't shock anyone to see them be the last undefeated team standing.

Philadelphia Eagles (+850)

• nF Ranking: 2nd
• Week 1-10 SOS: 9th
• Longest 2022 Streak: 8

Last year's last unbeaten team carries the second-shortest odds to do it again in 2023. Overall, the Eagles have a tougher schedule in 2023, but that doesn't really rear its head until the second half.

Philly could easily start the season 5-0 but things get much tougher from there. Road dates with the Jets in Week 6 and the Commanders in Week 8 won't come easy, nor will home affairs with the Dolphins and Cowboys. They, too, have a Week 10 bye. Philly did it last year, and with a cakewalk in the first month, they're as good of a bet as any to repeat as the last unbeaten team.

Buffalo Bills (+900)

• nF Ranking: 3rd
• Week 1-10 SOS: 7th
• Longest 2022 Streak: 7

The Buffalo Bills haven't started better than 4-0 in the Josh Allen era, but boy do things shape up nicely for them if they can get past the Jets in Week 1. After that, they have a string of home games against 2022 playoff teams from Weeks 4-6 and a road date with the Patriots in Week 7 -- all of which are winnable.

They have the easiest schedule through the first 10 weeks of any of the favorites, and, while it likely won't happen, I'm dreaming of a Week 9 battle in Cincinnati for the last unbeaten crown.

Cincinnati Bengals (+900)

• nF Ranking: 5th
• Week 1-10 SOS: 10th
• Longest 2022 Streak: 8

The Cincinnati Bengals may have started 0-2 last season, but they still managed to rack up the second-longest winning streak (8) in the league before the season was done. Joe Burrow's preseason injury certainly makes this a risky bet, but it's looking like he may be ready for Week 1.

If they can get past a tough first two weeks, the Bengals could run the table until two massive games against the 49ers and Bills in Weeks 8 and 9.

San Francisco 49ers (+1000)

• nF Ranking: 4th
• Week 1-10 SOS: 12th
• Longest 2022 Streak: 10

No, the San Francisco 49ers weren't the last unbeaten team last season, but they did amass 10 straight wins -- the longest winning streak of the 2022-23 season.

The 49ers have a relatively light schedule to open the season, although, traveling to Pittsburgh is never a fun way to kick things off. If they can get past the Cowboys at home and then survive two road dates with the Browns and Vikings, their Week 8 matchup with the Bengals could very well decide who the last undefeated team is.

Longshots

Baltimore Ravens (+1400)

• nF Ranking: 8th
• Week 1-10 SOS: 3rd
• Longest 2022 Streak: 4

Of the top 10 teams in numberFire's Power Rankings, the Baltimore Ravens have far and away the easiest first 10 weeks. They do have an incredibly tough road matchup with the Bengals in Week 2, but after that, they don't play a team that made the playoffs last season until Week 9 when they host the Seattle Seahawks.

It's not hard to envision a world where Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league this season. In addition to beefing up their receiving core, the Ravens installed an entirely new offense -- one that has Lamar Jackson poised to return to MVP form. A healthy Lamar makes the Ravens a real threat to start the season hot, and they're a real value compared to the other elite teams in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints (+2100)

• nF Ranking: 14th
• Week 1-10 SOS: 2nd
• Longest 2022 Streak: 3

The New Orleans Saints have a lot going for them to start the season hot, and that starts with their schedule. The Saints only play three teams that made the playoffs in their first 10 weeks. One, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, project to be one of the worst teams in the league, and another, the Minnesota Vikings, don't scare anyone. A home date with the Jacksonville Jaguars will be tough, but that's not until Week 7.

While New Orleans does have to travel to Green Bay and New England early, neither venue is nearly as tough to play in when the weather is still warm. Having a serviceable quarterback (Derek Carr) should do wonders for their offense and their defense returns

Atlanta Falcons (+3300)

• nF Ranking: 23rd
• Week 1-10 SOS: 1st
• Longest 2022 Streak: 2

Expecting the Atlanta Falcons to take a leap this season is a major ask, but their schedule makes them an enticing dark horse to be the last unbeaten team. Like the Saints, the Falcons benefit from playing in the NFC South -- projected to be one of the worst divisions in football. They do have to travel to Detroit in Week 3 and Jacksonville in Week 4, but they otherwise have an easy road in the first 10 weeks.

The Falcons have a ton of young pieces on offense that they've invested a ton of early draft capital in. Their defense remains a major question mark, but a soft opening schedule should alleviate that to an extent. They're certainly underdogs to be the last unbeaten team, but it's not out of the question.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.