How Worried Should You Be About Kenneth Walker III in Fantasy This Season?

With training camps opening this week, it's time to start preparing for fantasy drafts.

Today, let's look at Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, who led the Seahawks in every major rushing category as a rookie last season and is expected to be one of the first 16 running backs taken in fantasy drafts this year.

What's his fantasy football outlook for 2023?

Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Football Projection

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 175.50 points
2023 Projected Points: 201.01 points
numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: RB16
2023 Projected Stats:

• 267 carries
• 1,213 rushing yards
• 9.0 rushing touchdowns
• 27 receptions
• 186.3 receiving yards
• 1.2 receiving touchdowns

Kenneth Walker III 2023 Fantasy Outlook

A Promising Rookie Season

Walker was selected with the 41st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Following Rashaad Penny's serious leg injury in Week 5, Walker stepped into a featured role and never looked back, finishing the season with 228 carries for 1,050 yards (4.6 yards per attempt) and 9 rushing touchdowns, with 27 receptions on 35 targets for 165 receiving yards.

He was especially impactful at generating explosive runs, earning Pro Football Focus' second-highest breakaway percentage (45.8%) among 58 eligible running backs (minimum 70 carries). His PFF rushing grade (83.5) ranked 18th, and he recorded the third-most plays of 15-plus rushing yards (17).

Those big plays are huge for fantasy, and they helped him finish as the half-PPR RB16 (RB14 by points per game).

Walker's passing-game production wasn't overly impressive, but he was involved. He led all Seahawks' running backs in targets and receptions. Further improvement and involvement this year would be a massive plus for his fantasy outlook.

Entering the 2023-24 season, Walker will be dealing with several changes. But on an individual level, his career is off to a promising start, and he's one of the centerpieces of Seattle's offense.

Potential Changes in 2023

The offseason brought three key changes for Walker. First, Rashaad Penny joined the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency. Second, the Seahawks drafted wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of April's draft. Third, Seattle drafted running back Zach Charbonnet in the second round of April's draft.

The departure of Penny is offset by the arrival of Charbonnet, but the difference for Walker is that he is now the most established running back on the team. While Charbonnet was drafted highly, his arrival is not necessarily an indication that the Seahawks are uncertain about Walker's ability to lead their rushing attack. Following Penny's departure, the Seahawks were very thin at running back, and some depth was needed.

Charbonnet is expected to be the 1B to Walker's 1A. numberFire's projections reflect that, forecasting Charbonnet to handle 106.9 carries and see 23.1 targets this season.

Smith-Njigba's addition to the offense is a massive plus for Walker. The first wide receiver off the board, Smith-Njigba's addition significantly boosts Seattle's passing-game potential. Along with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks now have one of the best pass-catching trios in the NFL. From a fantasy perspective, figuring out the target breakdown between those three is difficult, but when it comes to Walker, we don't have to worry about that.

Walker benefits from the sum of the passing game's production. The more defenses are forced to key in on the passing game, the easier it should be for Walker to do what he does best: rip off explosive runs. The more productive Seattle's passing game is, the more scoring opportunities Walker should have. In fantasy football, Walker provides us with a way to capitalize on the Seahawks' offense without having to worry about the target breakdown between Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba.

Where is Walker Being Drafted?

There is an opportunity cost to every draft pick in fantasy football. When you choose to draft a player, you are also choosing to give up the opportunity to draft other players with similar average draft positions (ADP). Thinking about these tradeoffs as you maneuver through a draft can help you build a better roster.

Walker is currently the 16th running back coming off the board in FanDuel's best-ball contests. Per FantasyPros' ADP, Walker is the RB14 and 34th overall.

Selecting Walker at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers such as Terry McLaurin and Christian Watson, running backs such as Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones, tight end T.J. Hockenson, and quarterback Justin Fields.

Walker checks out pretty favorably when you compare him to those players.

McLaurin is an established fantasy force but is dealing with a tremendous amount of uncertainty at quarterback with Sam Howell under center. Watson is coming off an impressive rookie season, but the switch to Jordan Love at QB clouds the picture in a young, inexperienced passing game.

Mixon's individual metrics haven't been impressive, but he has a valuable role in one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Jones has been a consistent fantasy contributor for years, but he has significant backfield competition from A.J. Dillon and the Green Bay Packers' offense could be less effective if Love stumbles in his first season as the starter.

Hockenson is trending in the right direction after his 2022 trade to the Minnesota Vikings but could have increased target competition with the arrival of first-round rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison.

Fields' prolific rushing production fueled a breakout fantasy season last year, but questions about his passing production -- and the Chicago Bears' offense as a whole -- still need to be answered.

Final Verdict

An uncertain pass-game outlook and the addition of Zach Charbonnet are legitimate concerns for Walker. His ability to generate explosive plays is fantastic, but if Charbonnet siphons away targets and short-yardage opportunities, Walker could be relying solely on those types of plays for the majority of his fantasy production. How many touches Charbonnet handles will be a major factor in Walker's fantasy production this season.

If Charbonnet fails to establish himself as a consistent option and Walker settles into a high-volume role, the sky could be the limit for Walker. His big-play prowess pairs perfectly with the improved outlook for the Seahawks' passing game. If he commands the lion's share of goal-line work, Walker could be the primary beneficiary of the Seahawks' offseason additions.

At his ADP, Walker is a fine selection. His situation is not without risk, but he has the upside to exceed his current draft position. Mixon has a more secure role in a better offense but doesn't offer the same ceiling as Walker does if things break Walker's way this season.

As the more established running back, Walker should have every opportunity to start the season well and remain Seattle's primary option.

Regardless of how you expect the Seahawks' backfield to shake out this season, one thing is certain -- you shouldn't leave your drafts without one of their running backs. If Walker does disappoint because Charbonnet handles more work than expected, the rookie is likely an excellent selection at his current ADP of 104.0.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.