Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Dinger Tuesday 4/21/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Austin Riley
• Mickey Moniak
• Jorge Soler

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Braves at Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET

We went to the Atlanta Braves last night for a homer bet, and Matt Olson came through for us.

Tonight, I'm going back to the Braves and taking Austin Riley.

Riley is up against lefty Foster Griffin, a 30-year-old who is in the midst of his first full campaign in the big leagues. Griffin has been decent so far, amassing a 4.00 SIERA, but he's not missing many bats (9.7% swinging-strike rate).

Riley is hammering lefties across 2026's small sample, racking up a .499 wOBA in the split. He put up a 51.4% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage a season ago, and Riley has three jacks over his last 24 plate appearances.

Once Griffin is gone, he'll hand the keys to a Washington Nationals bullpen that is third-worst in xFIP (4.90), so Riley should have good matchups all night.

Mickey Moniak to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Padres at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

The Colorado Rockies are at home against a right-hander, and that pushes me toward Mickey Moniak's HR prop.

A former No. 1 overall pick in the MLB Draft, Moniak finally found some footing at the MLB level last year, hitting 24 homers and posting a .348 wOBA in his first season with the Rockies. He's been even better so far in 2026, producing a .408 wOBA, 40.5% hard-hit rate and 61.9% fly-ball rate.

Moniak killed it at Coors versus righties last year, registering a .396 wOBA in the split. Today, he'll be up against Randy Vasquez, who recorded a 5.43 SIERA last year and gave up a 47.5% fly-ball rate to lefty bats.

Jorge Soler to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Blue Jays at Angels, 9:39 p.m. ET

Patrick Corbin is throwing tonight for the Toronto Blue Jays, and it's a great matchup for Jorge Soler.

Since the start of 2023, Corbin has surrendered 1.40 homers per nine innings with a 5.51 expected ERA. While Corbin's overall numbers improved in 2025, he still wasn't all that good. Last year, right-handed hitters got to him for a .337 wOBA and 38.5% fly-ball rate.

Soler owns top-of-the-scale raw power and is off to a nice start this year, generating a .358 wOBA and five bombs through his first 87 plate appearances. With the platoon advantage against a meh pitcher, Soler can leave the yard tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.