Hero World Challenge: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Win Simulations

Only 20 golfers are teeing it up this week for the Hero World Challenge at Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas.

That includes Tiger Woods. Woods, though, said his game is "rusty" -- albeit pain-free.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Albany Golf Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,449 yards (around 70 yards longer than the average par 72)
• Average Green Size: 4,500 square feet (small)
• Green Type: Bermuda
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -16, -18, -18, -20, -18
• Recent Cut Lines: N/A (no-cut event)

Albany Golf Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie or Better Rate

Hero World Challenge Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

This is going to be a week where the daily fantasy pick and the betting pick at the top don't quite coincide. Viktor Hovland is +400 to win, and his game is pretty impeccable right now. He's won here two straight years, and it's clear he treats this event seriously.

Scottie Scheffler (+450) still has putting concerns, so he's not as "safe" from a lineup standpoint as Hovland is, yet his long-term data says he's the better outright bet because of his upside.

Other than that, value is tight, but Rickie Fowler (+2200) deserves a look. He's played the event well, historically, has good form, and is liked by the model.

Long shots are pretty much non-existent this week, yet Keegan Bradley (+3000) has the right game to play well here in his second start at Albany.

Reports around Will Zalatoris (+4000) are promising, though. He has reportedly shot 63-65-64 recently, so while he doesn't fit my usual process of following the model, there's appeal.

Hero World Challenge Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data. Golf betting odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Hero World Challenge DFS Studs

Viktor Hovland ($11,500 | +400)

It's hard to make a case against Viktor Hovland, who has won the past two starts at Albany -- his only two at the course. Hovland also won the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship events before two top-fives on the DP World Tour.

Hovland's got it all going, and he clearly takes this event seriously enough to win.

Scottie Scheffler is a great pivot away from Hovland, but Scheffler's putting puts him more into game theory pivot territory when compared to Hovland's pristine game.

Max Homa ($11,100 | +800)

I like Collin Morikawa ($10,800), but he's coming off of a back injury and hasn't been playing much golf.

So Max Homa gets a boost here among the other favorites. Homa won his most recent start in South Africa and has been playing some of the best golf on the planet. He's a top-six ball-striker and putter in the field over the past 50 rounds.

Others to Consider:

• Scottie Scheffler ($11,400 | +450)
• Cameron Young ($10,000 | +1600)

Hero World Challenge DFS Mid-Range Plays

Rickie Fowler ($9,500 | +2200)

Fowler won this event back in 2018 and has largely played well here: 3rd, T3, win, T5, and 9th in five starts.

Fowler's only start since the TOUR Championship was a T64 at the ZOZO Championship, but that's not necessarily indicative of much. Fowler is fifth in the field in strokes gained: tee to green over the past 50 rounds.

Tony Finau ($9,100 | +2200)

Finau ranks fourth in strokes gained: tee to green over the past 12 months and seventh over the past six months. He just is ice-cold with the putter.

Finau's splits from 5 to 15 feet are decent, and he's got some solid distance putting splits. We've also seen solid play from him at Albany. We have to remember that it's a small field, but he has finished 2nd, T10, T7, and 7th over the past four iterations.

Others to Consider:

• Jordan Spieth ($9,800 | +2200)
• Sam Burns ($9,200 | +2200)

Hero World Challenge DFS Value Plays

Brian Harman ($9,000 | +3000)

Harman's past-50-round putting leads the field, and that's definitely something we can cling to because he's such a good long-term putter. His ball-striking ranks him 15th, though, which isn't as ideal.

Still, we've seen him play well even after winning The Open while having positive irons and putting. He hasn't played Albany before.

Keegan Bradley ($8,800 | +3000)

Keegan Bradley has had just one start at Albany: a 15th-place result back in 2019.

But Bradley's had a lot of recent success and has gained strokes from approach play in six straight measured events. He's also adding a lot of distance off the tee, which is never a negative.

My model is highest on Bradley of anyone with a sub-$9,000 salary.

Others to Consider:

• Justin Rose ($8,600 | +4000)
• Will Zalatoris ($8,400 | +4000) - Returning from back surgery with reasons to believe he's healthy. Upside is big, but there's risk.

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.