Heat vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Jan. 17

Heat vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center -- Miami, Florida
• Coverage: FDSSUN, FDSOK, KWTV, and WPLG

The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) are heavily favored (-10.5) to continue a five-game win streak when they visit the Miami Heat (21-20) at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 17, 2026 at Kaseya Center. The matchup airs on FDSSUN, FDSOK, KWTV, and WPLG. The matchup's over/under is set at 235.5.

Heat vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Heat vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (61.1%)

Heat vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Thunder have put together a 21-21-0 record against the spread this season.
• The Heat have played 41 games, with 23 wins against the spread.
• Thunder games have gone over the total 21 times out of 41 chances this season.
• Heat games this season have eclipsed the over/under 48.8% of the time (20 out of 41 games with a set point total).
• Oklahoma City has done a better job covering the spread at home (12-11-0) than it has in road games (9-10-0).
• The Thunder have eclipsed the over/under in 12 of 23 home games (52.2%), compared to nine of 19 road games (47.4%).
• Miami has performed better against the spread at home (12-9-0) than on the road (11-8-1) this year.
• In 2025-26 a lower percentage of the Heat's games have finished above the over/under at home (47.6%, 10 of 21) compared to on the road (50%, 10 of 20).

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.6 points, 6.3 assists and 4.4 rebounds.
• Chet Holmgren's numbers on the season are 17.9 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game, shooting 57.5% from the field and 37.4% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.4 made 3-pointers.
• Ajay Mitchell averages 14.2 points, 3.5 boards and 3.6 assists, shooting 48.4% from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc, with 1.1 made 3-pointers per game.
• Jalen Williams is averaging 17.2 points, 4.8 boards and 5.7 assists. Defensively, he averages 1.4 steals and 0.4 blocked shots.
• Cason Wallace is averaging 7.3 points, 3 boards and 2.1 assists.

Heat Leaders

• Norman Powell averages 23.9 points for the Heat, plus 3.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists.
• Per game, Bam Adebayo provides the Heat 17 points, 9.5 boards and 2.7 assists. He also averages 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks.
• The Heat are getting 11.7 points, 9.9 boards and 0.5 assists per game from Kel'el Ware.
• Per game, Andrew Wiggins provides the Heat 15.8 points, 4.9 boards and 2.8 assists, plus 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks.
• The Heat are receiving 6.1 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game from Dru Smith.

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