Fantasy Football: What Is Patrick Mahomes' Ceiling in 2024?

When people discuss who the best real-life quarterback is in today's NFL, you'll receive little to no pushback when Patrick Mahomes' name comes up.

Mahomes has helped lead the Kansas City Chiefs to three Super Bowl titles in the last five campaigns -- including the last two -- all while earning two AP NFL MVPs and three Super Bowl MVPs. Still just 28 years old, it's safe to say he will finish his career as one of the all-time greats to play the position.

As one might expect, his play has led to a ton of success in fantasy football, as well. Since becoming a starter in 2018, Mahomes has led all quarterbacks in total fantasy points twice (2018, 2022) and has never finished worse than QB8 over those six seasons, per FantasyPros.

However, there's just one problem. Mahomes may have won last year's Super Bowl, but he's also coming off his worst statistical season as a starter.

While Mahomes averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in the previous five campaigns, he produced just 18.4 per game in 2023, which ranked 11th among QBs who made at least eight starts. He didn't have many spike weeks, either, reaching 20-plus points five times and 25-plus points only twice in 16 starts.

A healthy year helped him still finish as the QB8 in total points, but he wasn't the difference-maker drafters were hoping as last year's QB1 in average draft position (ADP).

Despite that underwhelming return on investment, Mahomes' draft stock hasn't dipped much entering the 2024 campaign. He's generally being drafted as the QB3 with an ADP at roughly pick 40 overall.

Is Mahomes still worthy of such a high draft pick? Let's dig into whether he can capture the ceiling he's exhibited in past seasons.

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Outlook

Mahomes' 2023 Season

Looking at what went wrong for Mahomes last year is a good place to start, and what's notable straight away was his dip in passing efficiency.

Among qualified starters in 2023, the KC quarterback ranked 19th in passing yards per attempt (7.0) and 18th in adjusted passing yards per attempt (6.9). Per NextGenStats, he also sat 14th in expected points added per drop back (0.03).

In contrast to this, when Mahomes finished as the QB1 in 2022 and averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game, he was second in yards per attempt (8.1) and adjusted yards per attempt (8.5), and he was first in expected points added per drop back (0.22).

Mahomes also didn't throw deep as often last season, showing a 7.5 aDOT in 2022 -- a below-average mark to begin with -- and then dropping to 6.6 in 2023. Last year's aDOT was the fifth-lowest among qualified QBs.

He also posted his worst touchdown rate (4.5%) and interception rate (2.3%) since becoming a starter. In all, it was a pedestrian campaign by his standards pretty much across the board.

So, what changed in 2023? If we're looking for a scapegoat, Mahomes' supporting cast -- or lack thereof -- is the clear candidate.

Whereas Mahomes was able to withstand the departure of star wideout Tyreek Hill in 2022 behind a banner year from tight end Travis Kelce, Kelce wasn't able to duplicate that production last season. Whether it was because of increased defensive attention, a natural decline at age 34, or both, Kelce would average a career-worst 10.6 yards per reception, falling short of 1,000 yards for the first time since 2015 and scoring his fewest touchdowns (5) since 2019.

That left a mostly unproven wide receiver corps to pick up the slack, and outside of the emergence of Rashee Rice in the second half of the season, the group as a whole failed to move the needle. Overall, Kansas City pass-catchers would lead the league with 44 drops and a 7.3% drop rate, per Pro Football Reference.

The Chiefs no doubt noticed these shortcomings and made some key offseason additions to their offense. Should we expect that to be enough to boost Mahomes' fantasy stock to its previous heights?

Restocking the Cupboard

Kansas City signed free agent Marquise Brown in March and then drafted Xavier Worthy with their first round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, a pair of key additions that should immediately boost our optimism in Mahomes. Both wideouts will add field-stretching speed to the WR room and will go a long way toward getting Mahomes' paltry aDOT out of the cellar.

While injuries paired with inefficient quarterbacking held back Brown in the past two campaigns with the Arizona Cardinals, he achieved career highs in receiving yards (1,008), receptions (91), and targets (146) as a WR1 in his final year with the Baltimore Ravens in 2021.

Worthy's main claim to fame is his record-setting 4.21 seconds in the 40-yard dash at this year's NFL combine. Although it remains to be seen how he'll perform as a rookie, it's exciting to envision how Mahomes might be able to take advantage of such tantalizing speed.

Add in the aforementioned Kelce and Rice, and this should be a much more competent group of weapons for Mahomes compared to 2023. PFF ranks Kansas City's pass-catchers as the 16th-best unit, which isn't amazing, but a league-average group would still be a step up over an offense that rotated between Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore as starting wideouts -- none of whom recorded even 500 receiving yards last year.

Mahomes should also benefit from a strong offensive line in 2024. Establish the Run ranks this unit fourth while PFF places them seventh.

Lastly, if there's one positive to take from last season, it's that Mahomes may have been unlucky in the touchdown department -- but maybe not in the way you would expect.

Per FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula, Mahomes is a positive regression candidate for touchdowns in 2024. Mahomes had a -5.8 TD differential between expected touchdowns (xTD) and how many he actually scored in 2023, and most of that underperformance actually came through rushing.

Last season, he averaged 4.7 carries per game, resulting in career highs in rushes (75) and rushing yards (389), yet he scored zero touchdowns on the ground compared to 4.3 xTD. It wasn't like he didn't get carries inside the 20-yard line, either, owning a solid 18.3% red zone rush share (12th-best among QBs). Mahomes had scored at least two rushing touchdowns in each of the previous five seasons.

While he's far from being one of the elite rushers at the position, it's a reminder that Mahomes does bring some value with his legs, and that production could even go up this year.

Patrick Mahomes' Fantasy Football Projection

Checking in with numberFire's model, which assumes playing all 17 games, Mahomes is pegged for 4,595.4 passing yards, 33.1 passing TDs, and 9.2 interceptions while adding in 83.4 rushes for 413.0 yards and 3.3 scores on the ground.

That's enough to prop up Mahomes as the QB4 while being just a hair behind the projected QB3, Lamar Jackson, in total fantasy points. This mirrors the consensus ADP, which shows both players going right around pick 40.

Excluding an injury-shortened campaign, it's quite possible that 2023 represents the worst-case scenario for Mahomes as a fantasy quarterback, and it really feels like there's nowhere to go but up. An improved WR group, strong offensive line, and positive TD regression all point to a bounce-back year -- not to mention that Kansas City should be winning a whole lot of games in 2024.

On FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs' win total is set at 11.5, which is tied for the highest mark with the San Francisco 49ers. And according to the NFL passing props, Mahomes is expected to be a big part of that success, owning the shortest odds for both the most regular season passing yards (+700) and most regular season passing TDs (+550).

Overall, the immense rushing upside of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts -- who are both strong candidates to score double-digit rushing TDs again -- bring about a floor/ceiling combo in fantasy that has them firmly entrenched as the top options at the position.

But once those guys are off the board, Mahomes looks like a rather attractive option at QB3 or QB4, and we shouldn't be surprised if he's back at the top of the fantasy leaderboards when it's all said and done.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.