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Fantasy Football Week 9 News, Injuries, Role Changes, and Snap Rates

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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Fantasy Football Week 9 News, Injuries, Role Changes, and Snap Rates

Week 9 was another where injuries were -- unfortunately -- the main character. And they happened to players who are the focal points within their respective offenses.

Whenever this happens, you have to be wary about offensive efficiency. Yes, another player may get more volume, but efficiency matters, too, and if the offense is derailed, that increased volume might be nullified.

Thus, it's important to dig into these injuries and consider both sides of the coin to decide how we should handle players impacted going forward.

Let's start there, outlining those key injuries before delving into some happier subjects such as role changes and more.

All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target mor than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Key Injuries to Track Entering Week 10

Dak Prescott

It has been a nightmare season for the Dallas Cowboys already, and things got worse Sunday with Dak Prescott sustaining a hamstring injury. Owner Jerry Jones said he was "concerned" about the injury, so we should expect some missed time.

Cooper Rush relieved Prescott and had about league-average efficiency on 25 drop backs. Back in 2022 -- in a five-game stint as starter -- Rush averaged -0.04 Passing Net Expected Points per drop back (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric). That was a good chunk below average, so this would obviously be a downgrade to everybody involved.

In that time, though, Rush did funnel work to CeeDee Lamb. Lamb handled 31.5% of Rush's targets in 2022. That number was 20.0% Sunday, though Lamb was banged up and did miss a few snaps as a result.

All things considered, Lamb would obviously be startable in season-long without Prescott, but he'd be a tough DFS play until his salary comes way down. And Rush starting would kill the appeal in the secondary players, Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson. We'll touch on the backfield in the role change section.

Drake London

The other side of that game also had a key injury with Drake London leaving early with a hip injury. It's not expected to be serious, but we should still plan as if London will miss time.

Kirk Cousins still shredded even without London, averaging 0.46 Passing NEP per drop back. That's at least encouraging for the team's outlook, even if we should downgrade them if London misses time.

Unsurprisingly, Darnell Mooney stepped into a big role. He turned 9 targets into 88 yards and a touchdown, pushing his season-long target share to 24.4%. Mooney was already respectable there with a great downfield role, so he would get a big bump up if London were to miss time. He'd be a no-thought season-long starter and a key DFS option, as well.

The other big usage spike went to Bijan Robinson. Robinson set a new season high with seven targets, allowing him to rack up 145 yards from scrimmage. Reduced offensive efficiency would ding Robinson, but the potential for more targets is seemingly enough to nullify that. Robinson's stock is neutral at worst.

Kyle Pitts underwhelmed with just one target, but I'd still boost him in the event of a London absence. His production was fluky before as it was dependent on broken plays, but they'd likely scheme up more looks for him without London. He's a high-quality season-long play and a DFS target without London.

AJ Brown

A.J. Brown left Week 9 with a knee injury, and head coach Nick Sirianni had no update on Brown's status after the game.

If Brown sits, it's a huge downgrade to the offense. In his three-game absence earlier this year, the Philadelphia Eagles scored 21, 15, and 16 points, though one of those was also without DeVonta Smith. Not having Brown while left tackle Jordan Mailata is on injured reserve would mean the team would be playing without two of its best offensive pieces, which would be enough to downgrade Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley at least a bit.

Smith had double-digit targets in his two games without Brown despite leaving one of those early due to an injury of his own. He has made some insane catches recently, so he's playing good ball. Thus, if Brown misses time, we should be aggressive with Smith in all formats even if Dallas Goedert is able to return.

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Nov 10 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Chris Olave

Chris Olave sustained a scary concussion, his second in a short timeframe. He was reportedly in good spirits after the game, but it seems very likely he misses time. This would torpedo what little fantasy value Derek Carr had with Rashid Shaheed also out.

It should also hurt Alvin Kamara with offensive efficiency likely to decrease, but Kamara's usage was insane after Olave's injury. He finished with 29 carries and 9 targets for 215 yards from scrimmage.

It's hard to bank on that as they won't be facing the Carolina Panthers every week. And we should still downgrade Kamara a bit, especially with the season slipping away from the New Orleans Saints. This just helps buoy him until they decide to conserve him for 2025.

Mason Tipton is the next receiver up, but the tight ends -- Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson -- entice me more. Johnson ran the second most routes on the team (behind Tipton) and has shown upside in the past. He's at least a streaming consideration.

As for Hill, in addition to a rushing touchdown, he had a season-high 5 targets for 41 yards. This offense might have to go full gimmick with all the injuries at receiver, and Hill would benefit if that were to happen.

Keon Coleman

Keon Coleman got banged up late for the Buffalo Bills and left with a brace on his wrist. It's a tough break for a player who was coming off consecutive strong games.

The Bills played this one without Amari Cooper, also due to a wrist injury. Thus, Sunday's usage will change even if Coleman misses time due to Cooper's likely return. But Dalton Kincaid's role was really nice.

Kincaid led the team with 10 targets. It resulted in just 32 yards, but it easily could have been more as Kincaid had a pair of deep targets. His deep target share for the season is up to 21.6%, and he has multiple deep targets in three of the past five games.

Kincaid had a 20.3% target share in two games with Cooper, so he should still be viable even if both Cooper and Coleman are healthy. But if one of them is out, he'll be someone worth buying.

Darius Slayton

As odd as it may seem, Darius Slayton could well be one of the guys we referenced earlier where an absence would lower expectations for the entire offense.

I think I'd actually downgrade Malik Nabers if Slayton misses time due to a concussion.

Volume hasn't been the issue for Nabers. He had 11 more targets Sunday, pushing his target share to 37.2% in the games he has played. Those targets just haven't been efficient.

Nabers finished with 59 yards, his third time this year with double-digit targets and less than 80 yards. He and Daniel Jones just haven't been able to connect for big plays, and taking Slayton out of the offense would decrease the odds that changes.

We can and should still start Nabers every week in season-long. It's just important to keep expectations in check should Slayton miss time because increased volume may not do a ton to bolster Nabers' stock.

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Nov 10 2:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Erick All

Erick All Jr. has shown flashes this year, but now the Cincinnati Bengals fear that All tore his ACL. It'd be a bummer to lose a fun, young tight end tied to a quarterback we can trust.

All's final snap came in the second quarter, meaning this injury may have helped catapult Mike Gesicki to his 100-yard day. Gesicki had 73 yards and both of his touchdowns in the second half, though he still ran just 10 routes on 19 second-half drop backs.

Gesicki is super limited as a blocker, so we should expect Drew Sample to mix in and fill some of All's role. Plus, this production came with Tee Higgins sidelined once again.

As a result, I'll want to be somewhat skeptical of Gesicki in the short run. But All's injury should make us more receptive if Gesicki keeps earning targets, especially once Higgins is back.

Fantasy Football Role Changes

Chase Brown

With Zack Moss set to miss time to a neck injury, Sunday was our first glimpse at Chase Brown in a featured role.

He checked every box.

Brown lit it up with 157 yards from scrimmage on 27 carries and 5 targets while playing 78.9% of the snaps. He also handled 8 of 16 red-zone chances. It's a truly massive role.

The Bengals' offensive line isn't very good, so Brown is unlikely to ever be hyper-efficient. Other than that, he's set to become an elite fantasy back if he can keep this up while Moss is out.

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Nov 8 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

De'Von Achane

De'Von Achane's role had already been great alongside Tua Tagovailoa. But it got even better Sunday.

Achane played a season-high 68.3% of the snaps, likely aided in part by a Raheem Mostert fumble. Achane had 12 carries, 8 targets, and 6 of 10 red-zone chances for the team en route to a 121-yard, 2-touchdown day.

Tagovailoa was extremely efficient Sunday, boosting overall expectations for the team. When you add that with Achane's improved role, he's one of the most desirable fantasy backs in the league in all formats.

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Nov 12 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Rico Dowdle

As mentioned above, we have to downgrade all Cowboys if Dak Prescott misses games.

The timing on that is brutal after Rico Dowdle finally separated in the backfield.

With Ezekiel Elliott inactive, Dowdle played 71.6% of the snaps, turning 12 carries and 6 targets into 107 yards from scrimmage. He also had 4 of 9 red-zone chances.

That's featured-back usage.

Even if Prescott is healthy, we'd still want to keep expectations for Dowdle in check because it's unlikely this team ever excels at running the ball. And if Prescott is out, it'll be extra hard to trust Dowdle. But if Dowdle can maintain this kind of usage until Prescott returns, we'll finally have a usable fantasy back on this team.

Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne was the focal point to start in Week 9, but things quickly shifted toward Tank Bigsby.

In the first quarter, Etienne out-snapped Bigsby, eight to four. But Etienne dropped a pass in the second quarter that was eventually intercepted and then played just four snaps in the second half.

Bigsby wound up leading the team in snaps at 54.9%, up from Etienne's mark of 31.4%. D'Ernest Johnson mixed in for 21.6% of the snaps.

Bigsby finished with just 22 yards, so this shift is likely to fly under the radar. As long as you can stomach buying into an offense that may be in full-blown sell mode entering the deadline, Bigsby is a worthy target.

As for Etienne, he should be on season-long benches as long as you have somewhat palatable alternatives.

Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's key hangup in fantasy has always been yardage upside.

Whew, buddy, did he give that narrative the middle finger on Sunday.

Without D.K. Metcalf, Smith-Njigba turned 13 targets into 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. Five of his 13 targets were deep, and two were in the red zone.

It was masterful usage.

Now, the Seattle Seahawks head into their bye, and it's likely Metcalf is available after that. We should still be high on Smith-Njigba.

In games with Metcalf this year, Smith-Njigba has a 20.1% overall target share with 23.1% of the deep targets. That's not an amazing role, but it's fine. And now that the team has seen he can do something like this, it's possible he improves upon those marks when Metcalf is back. This is just one of those eye-popping performances that should alter the way you view a player.

We don't want to just assume Smith-Njigba is now a WR1 or anything. But we should bump our view of him, especially from a ceiling perspective.

The Jets' Pass-Catchers

As bad as the vibes were for the New York Jets entering the week, they were just as good for Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams after their Thursday victory.

Both Adams and Wilson had 90-plus yards and a touchdown. Adams had three deep targets after getting just two across his first two games. Both finished with a target share above 30%.

With Allen Lazard on injured reserve, these are the clear top two pass-catchers on the team, and Aaron Rodgers treated them as such. Stock is rising on both players with the Jets still alive for the postseason.

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Nov 10 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Commanders' Pass-Catchers

Jayden Daniels threw just 22 times Sunday in another victory, so this has flown a bit under the radar. But Noah Brown remains the clear No. 2 pass-catcher on the team.

In three games with Daniels since returning from injury, Brown actually leads the team with a 23.3% target share, besting Terry McLaurin at 20.9%. Brown also has multiple deep targets in each of those games.

McLaurin's still the top guy here by a wide margin. But Brown's doing enough to be a consideration in season-long, and he can be in play for DFS in the right game scripts where Daniels has to throw a bit more.

Additional Notes

  • The Minnesota Vikings eased T.J. Hockenson into action, playing him on 45.1% of the snaps and having him run a route on 23 of 39 drop backs. Still, he earned five targets, two of which were deep, with both of those marks trailing only Justin Jefferson. I'd be comfortable viewing him as the No. 2 pass-catcher already, ahead of Jordan Addison, despite Addison notching a sick touchdown Sunday night.
  • Without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, Tank Dell finally showed life with 126 receiving yards on 9 targets. His target share will scale back with Collins likely returning next week, but that'll boost the offense's efficiency, so I do think things are finally trending up for Dell's fantasy outlook.
  • Demarcus Robinson showed last year he could earn targets alongside Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Sunday, with Nacua getting ejected, Robinson had nine targets -- four of which were deep -- including a game-winning touchdown. I'd still keep expectations in check with Nacua back next week, but Robinson is at least worth an add in season-long and could be a desperation play if necessary.
  • Quentin Johnston returned to the lineup with a 100-yard day, but Ladd McConkey's role remained strong. McConkey led with 7 targets (a 26.9% share) and a season-high 3 deep targets. We should continue to be high on McConkey and, quite frankly, this entire Los Angeles Chargers offense.
  • With Brian Robinson out, Austin Ekeler's role was just okay. He played 46.7% of the snaps, turning 11 carries and 4 targets into 83 yards from scrimmage. It seems like the Washington Commanders don't want to turn Ekeler into a featured back, which makes sense at his age. It just caps his fantasy upside even when Robinson is sidelined.
  • Christian Watson earned a season-high seven targets, four of which were deep. He turned that into just 37 yards (versus 113 for Jayden Reed on 6 targets), but it was the first sign of life we've seen from Watson in a while. He's still third in the pecking order behind Reed and Romeo Doubs, but he's worth monitoring more now than he was entering the week.
  • With Diontae Johnson debuting for the Baltimore Ravens, both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely were on notice as it could push the team to more three-receiver sets. Likely ran a route on just 7 of 20 overall drop backs, including 3 of 13 in the first half (before the score got lopsided). Likely is droppable in season-long and fully off the DFS radar.
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders had a big day in the first game since the Diontae Johnson trade, going for 87 yards on 5 targets. He still ran just 18 routes on 27 drop backs, but Sanders is now at least on the menu as a streamer with byes on the horizon.
  • Cole Kmet earned 0 targets on 38 routes Sunday, pushing his target share to 9.7% since Keenan Allen returned. Kmet's droppable in season-long and not a DFS option at this point.
  • With Noah Fant out, AJ Barner turned into an every-down player for the Seahawks. He ran 34 routes on 41 drop backs, finishing second on the team with 7 targets. It resulted in just 27 yards, and with Metcalf likely back soon, we shouldn't expect imminent explosions. But Barner's worth monitoring in the weeks after the bye.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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