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Fantasy Football Week 5: Key Takeaways, Injuries, and Role Changes

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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Fantasy Football Week 5: Key Takeaways, Injuries, and Role Changes

We spent the first few weeks this year panicking about the passing game.

Deep breaths, friends. The long balls were back in Week 5.

It started with a bang on Thursday Night Football and carried into Sunday. Not only did we get big performances, but we also just got increased samples on a lot of teams, giving us a better idea of what to expect going forward.

Let's dig into the key Week 5 takeaways for fantasy football, from those passing-game outputs to injuries and more.

All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target 16-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Key Injuries to Track Entering Week 6

Nico Collins

Nico Collins and C.J. Stroud were one of the most electric duos in the league to open the year, making Collins' Week 5 hamstring injury an absolute buzzkill.

With Collins missing most of the game, Stefon Diggs led the team with 8 targets for 82 yards. Diggs' aDOT was still 7.3, so it didn't lead to a bump in deep work, but Diggs would get a boost if Collins were to miss time.

Much to my disappointment, Tank Dell was still underwhelming with 4 targets for 38 yards. I've been waiting for his breakout all year, but it still hasn't happened. Although I'd bump up Dell without Collins, he and Stroud just haven't been as in sync as they were in their rookie seasons.

Instead, Dalton Schultz was the guy who surged with 6 targets and 34 yards. Schultz is a quality pass-catcher who can earn targets, so whenever one of The Big Three is sidelined, he's on the radar in all formats.

It's worth noting that Stroud would get downgraded without Collins. Any quarterback gets pushed down if they're forced to play without their surefire top guy, and that's what Collins has become for Stroud. He's still an absolute starter in season-long, but for DFS, we'd want to be a bit extra skeptical of Stroud's ceiling and median expectation.

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Oct 13 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

De'Von Achane

The Miami Dolphins' Week 6 bye is well-timed after De'Von Achane was ruled out due to a concussion early in Sunday's game.

With Achane sidelined, both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright got a lot of work. Mostert led with 19 carries, 2 targets, and a 54.7% snap rate, but Wright snuck in 13 carries of his own for 86 yards. In the passing game, Mostert ran 18 routes to Wright's 8.

If Achane couldn't go coming out of the bye, we'd have to keep expectations in check for both players in a sputtering offense. But Mostert would get enough volume to be a starting consideration, and Wright would be worth a waiver add thanks to the juice he showed.

Aaron Jones

The Minnesota Vikings have a bye upcoming, which may allow Aaron Jones to not miss time with a hip injury he suffered Sunday. Head coach Kevin O'Connell said he is keeping his "fingers crossed" that it's a short-term injury.

If Jones can't go, we should expect a big role for Ty Chandler. Chandler played 60.6% of the snaps on Sunday, well clear of Myles Gaskin at 6.1%. The team had released Gaskin last week before re-signing him to the practice squad, so clearly, they value Chandler much more than Gaskin.

Chandler had some games as a full-blown featured back last year, so if Jones does wind up sitting, Chandler will be a great season-long starter and an option for DFS.

Rachaad White

This is more of a "keep your eyes open" situation because it occurred so late, but Rachaad White got tackled awkwardly toward the end of Thursday night's game, meaning his status will be worth monitoring.

White did play another snap after that, but the team got Bucky Irving back on the field, as well, which is noteworthy given he had just lost a crucial fumble. Irving's 43.1% snap rate was his highest this year as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had both players on the field for a healthy number of snaps.

If White were to miss time, Irving would have immediate featured-back potential. He has been efficient on his rushes, and he has earned looks in the passing game, as well. The fumble had the potential to derail Irving's breakout, but we're back on watch again with White possibly banged up.

Jordan Whittington

It sounds as though Cooper Kupp may be back after the Los Angeles Rams' bye, potentially making this moot. But Jordan Whittington sustained a shoulder injury late, putting his post-bye status up in the air.

Before the injury, Whittington had a great role with 10 targets on 45 targeted throws. That was tied with Tutu Atwell for second on the team behind only Colby Parkinson (13).

Atwell did take advantage of his chances with 58 yards, his third straight game above 50. It's likely enough volume for him to be in play if Whittington misses time even if Kupp is back. It'd be Puka Nacua's return that would jettison Atwell back to irrelevancy.

Xavier Legette

Xavier Legette has said he'll be good to go after leaving Sunday's game early with a shoulder injury.

It's unclear who would get bumped up if Legette can't go. Diontae Johnson probably can't get a huge bump with his target share already at 27.4%. Jonathan Mingo was tied for second on the team with five targets, but his yardage upside has been limited so far.

Jalen Coker is at least worth monitoring after he ran 26 routes and turned 4 targets into 68 yards, though a healthy chunk of that came in garbage time while playing with Bryce Young. Best-case scenario is that Legette is good to go. Otherwise, it's likely a handful of question marks and players worth simply monitoring.

Fantasy Football Role Changes

Tyrone Tracy

It required a Devin Singletary injury and a crucial Eric Gray fumble, but Tyrone Tracy Jr. showed out on Sunday.

Tracy turned 18 carries and 2 targets into 130 yards from scrimmage on a 62.0% snap rate. After the Gray fumble, Tracy out-snapped him the red zone, six to three.

If Singletary misses more time, we should be willing to ride with Tracy in all formats despite the offense.

If Singletary returns, we should be mindful of the fact that coaches love him. There's a reason he played at least 69% of the snaps in each of the first four games. Tracy will still have upside, but we'll want to be wary of his median outcome until we see how the new dynamic shakes out.

Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne

Tank Bigsby has been knocking on the door all year long.

On Sunday, he kicked it down.

Bigsby out-snapped Travis Etienne, 40.4% to 38.6%. That's one thing. But when it comes with 129 yards from scrimmage on 13 carries and 1 target, it says 40.4% could be the lowest we see from him the rest of the way.

For the season, Etienne has the higher Rushing Success Rate (47.2% to 38.2%, according to NEP, numberFire's EPA metric), but Bigsby has averaged an unreal 0.27 Rushing NEP per carry thanks to his propensity for big plays, up from Etienne's -0.01.

On a 1-4 team, you need juice, and Bigsby has it.

Bigsby still ran just 8 routes to Etienne's 14, and D'Ernest Johnson was above even that at 10 routes. Thus, we shouldn't expect Bigsby to suddenly become a full featured back. But we should expect his early-down role to expand with Etienne's declining.

Brian Thomas Jr.

In Trevor Lawrence's most efficient game this year, Brian Thomas Jr. broke out.

Thomas led the team with 8 targets, cashing them in for 122 yards and a long touchdown. It was his third straight game with at least eight overall targets and two deep targets, pushing his shares in those categories to 21.8% and 30.6%, respectively.

Thomas has been a yards-per-route run standout all year, meaning this big game was somewhat predictable. That also means we can buy into his role going forward.

Evan Engram will likely return soon, which does toss a wrench into things. Still, Thomas has been good enough where we should start him in season-long and keep him in our DFS player pool due to his yardage upside.

Rico Dowdle

The Dallas Cowboys finally got the run game cooking Sunday night, and most of that was via Rico Dowdle.

Dowdle set season-highs in snap rate (50.7%), carries (20), and yards from scrimmage (114), the latter two numbers blowing his previous highs out of the water.

Dowdle did nearly lose a fumble on the goal line late, but he remained in the game for the final couple of snaps. The consequences likely would have been more severe had the opponent recovered.

Still, Dowdle's role had expanded last week, and it continued in Week 5. At home in a potential shootout with the Detroit Lions, Dowdle can be started in season-long and -- for the first time all season -- is at least a consideration for DFS.

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Oct 13 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert's snap rate had been high all year, but he made an impact in the first game with Brandin Cooks on IR.

Tolbert led the Cowboys with 10 targets for 87 yards, and he cashed in for the game-winning touchdown (following a previous empty end-zone target). That red-zone role came with an 11.7-yard aDOT, showing that Tolbert has a couple of paths to upside.

When healthy, Cooks wasn't really a reliable fantasy option, though he would occasionally pop off. I wouldn't be shocked if Tolbert exceeds that production simply because he's got more tread left on the tires. He's someone worth adding in season-long, and he's a DFS consideration in that aforementioned potential shootout with the Lions.

Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier

Bijan Robinson's snap rate actually increased in Week 5 (to 66.7% from 60.8% the week before). But it's when those snaps occurred that's noteworthy.

Tyler Allgeier was the back on the field for the closing two-minute drive and in overtime. Being mindful of a player's usage on short rest is likely wise; it was just odd to see Allgeier getting the high-leverage snaps.

It's worth noting the Atlanta Falcons have played well with Allgeier out there. Their EPA per play is 0.03 with him versus -0.03 without him, according to Next-Gen Stats. That may not stick, but it does tell us he's probably not going away.

We should continue to downgrade Robinson from our preseason expectations. He's still valuable for fantasy with 74 and 77 yards from scrimmage the past two games, but he's not the mid-first-rounder he was in August.

Jordan Mason

Maybe it's over-selling it to call Jordan Mason's Week 5 a role change, but it wasn't as good of a role as we're used to seeing with him.

Mason played just 63.5% of the snaps, his lowest mark of the year by 10 percentage points. His snap rate has actually decreased every week.

This is partly explainable due to high heat on Sunday with another divisional game coming on Thursday. But with Mason's lack of passing-game work, we don't have a ton of room for him to lose anything on early downs.

I'd still treat Mason largely the same on Thursday night, but we do need to be mindful of some red flags that have started to emerge.

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Oct 11 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Trey Sermon

Without Jonathan Taylor, Trey Sermon led the Indianapolis Colts' backfield.

Sermon outsnapped Tyler Goodson, 58.0% to 42.0%. Sermon had 10 carries with 6 targets and handled 7 of 18 red-zone chances.

That's good enough to make Sermon a season-long starter if Taylor misses more time. He can also at least be considered in DFS, as long as the matchup and salary line up well enough.

Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage

The Falcons' Pass-Catchers

Kirk Cousins had 58 pass attempts Thursday, so target totals will be a bit misleading. But Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts all got fed.

London led with 12 catches for 154 yards, but Mooney actually had 16 targets to London's 13. Pitts had 8, amounting to a 14.8% target share, bringing his season-long mark to 13.8%. Of the three, Pitts is the guy whose performance was most misleading due to volume.

London and Mooney, though, now possess season-long target shares of 26.4% and 24.0%, respectively. Mooney also has 54.8% of the deep targets, averaging 3.4 per game.

Because Mooney is involved, London should be a smidge below our preseason expectations while still being a really solid option. But Mooney's also an every-week starter, and all the deep volume makes him the kind of player we should target in DFS, as well.

Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson had a squeaky-wheel narrative after complaining about his route tree entering Week 5.

A whopping 57 drop backs and 22 targets got that thing greased in London.

Those 22 targets resulted in just 101 yards against a stout Vikings defense as the New York Jets scuffled. Still, the showing moves Wilson's target share up to 30.4% for the season.

The Jets' schedule is tough, and the offense looks disjointed. Thus, we're going to need Wilson to get fed in order for him to move the needle. It's possible we're starting to get that, though, boosting Wilson's outlook in the short-term.

The Packers' Pass-Catchers

With Christian Watson out and Romeo Doubs suspended, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft stepped up for the Green Bay Packers.

Kraft scored twice on five targets, both in impressive fashion. This came with Luke Musgrave sidelined, but Kraft's role had been good even before Musgrave's injury. We'll want to be wary once both Doubs and Watson are back, but if one piece is removed, he's the rare tight end with a ceiling.

As for Reed, he had 78 yards on 6 targets and added 19 yards rushing. He never bathes in targets, but the production is so good that it's hard to get too mad.

Then there's Dontayvion Wicks, who has some shades of early-career Diontae Johnson. He gets open, earns targets (he led the team with seven today), but lacks productivity (he finished with 20 yards).

Wicks has been charged with a league-leading six drops this year, per Next-Gen Stats. Drops aren't always a bad thing because they show you were good enough to get open and earn a target; but when you're on a team with plentiful alternatives, it does make you a little squeamish.

I'd still be fine with Wicks in fantasy if we get another game without Watson. But we also can't be all that surprised if he eventually loses snaps with so many talented teammates.

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Oct 13 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The 49ers' Pass-Catchers

The Brandon Aiyuk breakout game finally happened in a loss on Sunday.

Aiyuk and George Kittle tied for the 49ers' lead with 12 total targets. Aiyuk turned his into 147 yards.

In the four games that Aiyuk, Kittle, and Deebo Samuel have played together, Kittle leads with a 23.6% target share while Aiyuk and Samuel are tied at 22.0%. That makes Kittle one of the best fantasy tight ends in the league.

As for Aiyuk and Samuel, they'll have their down games, as Samuel did Sunday. But they're still worth it in DFS due to their lofty ceilings, even if neither has elite appeal for cash games when everybody is healthy.

The Ravens' Pass-Catchers

We finally got big volume from the Baltimore Ravens' passing game. It seems pretty clear that Zay Flowers is in a tier of his own with no obvious secondary option.

After a 12-target game Sunday, Flowers' target share is up to 26.9%. Nobody else is above Rashod Bateman at 15.2%. Whenever you're stacking Lamar Jackson in DFS, Flowers is the runaway top option.

Next up would be either Bateman or Isaiah Likely. Although Mark Andrews showed life with 55 yards, it came on just 16 routes run. The prospects of Andrews regaining fantasy relevancy any time soon are grim.

Likely fills tight end but hasn't exceeded three targets since his Week 1 blow-up. That's why I'd lean toward Bateman as the number two option for now with Likely right behind. But again, this is Flowers' show first and foremost.

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Oct 13 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Additional Notes

  • The Cincinnati Bengals are running their offense exactly the way you'd like for fantasy: funneling work to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. After both had double-digit targets with two touchdowns Sunday, Higgins now leads with a 28.0% target share in his 3 games with Chase at 23.4% in that sample. Chase is still the top guy, but both are getting superstar-style usage right now.
  • Not only did D'Andre Swift produce on his volume for a second straight start, but he also handled 9 of 18 red-zone chances. He has benefited from plus matchups, but the confidence arrow on Swift continues to trend in the right direction.
  • If Davante Adams does get dealt, we should be willing to start both Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers in season-long. Bowers went for 97 yards on 12 targets Sunday, and Meyers had 9-plus targets for the third straight game. Even in a poor passing offense, we should have a positive opinion of both guys.
  • I wouldn't worry too much about Brian Robinson's role this week. He got in just one limited practice during the week due to a knee injury, and the Washington Commanders had a big lead all day. We can go back to status quo once he starts to log full practices again.
  • It's time to panic on Michael Pittman Jr. Even with Joe Flacco throwing 44 passes, Pittman still had just 37 yards on 8 targets. Josh Downs led with 12 targets and is now the top pass-catcher on the team. Pittman's not a bad player to bench in season-long if you have good enough alternatives.
  • Even without Khalil Shakir, no Buffalo Bills took the reins Sunday. Mack Hollins and Dalton Kincaid led with 6 of 29 targets (20.7%). Kincaid is the top guy, but it's really by default in what has turned out to be a low-volume passing offense.
  • Without Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton had a huge game with 122 yards on 11 targets. Slayton has proven throughout his entire career that he can haul in deep balls, so if we can reasonably project an up-tick in volume for him, he'll be in play for fantasy. We'll just want to lower expectations significantly once Nabers is back.
  • Dare Ogunbowale was the Texans' lead back, playing 67.2% of the snaps while logging 15 carries and 7 targets. He's now the top guy until Joe Mixon returns and can be trusted -- to a reasonable extent -- in season-long.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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