Fantasy Football: Can Chris Godwin Overcome the Bucs' Poor Offense?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a font of fantasy point production over the last half-decade. Their Jameis Winston-led aerial assaults propped up fantasy-relevant receivers for years, and Tom Brady's Bucs rode elite efficiency to multiple playoff appearances (including a Super Bowl win). But now, after Tom Brady's retirement, the team is set to begin a new era.

Head coach Todd Bowles announced Tuesday that Baker Mayfield had won the team's QB1 gig for the first week of the 2023 season. Can the Bucs' top pass-catchers, like Chris Godwin, thrive in spite of that transition?

Chris Godwin Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.com.

2023 Fantasy Points Projection: 173.82 (170.8 in 2022)
2023 Positional Ranking: WR30
2023 Projected Stats:

• 144.2 targets
• 87.9 receptions
• 930.6 receiving yards
• 5.7 touchdowns

Chris Godwin Fantasy Football Outlook

A Shaky 2022

Godwin's 2022 season won't exactly instill much optimism in prospective fantasy football managers. The target-hog, who had averaged 6.2 receptions per game entering the year, still managed to catch an average of 6.9 passes per game in the 2022 season despite working his way back from a late-2021 ACL tear. The fact he was able to sustain that workload at all while still recovering from a serious injury was an impressive feat on its own, but between the injury and his unique usage, Godwin's efficiency took a massive hit last year.

The Bucs' 2022 season started on the wrong foot. Their starting offensive line lost multiple starters just before Week 1, leaving their pass protection in shambles. By the time Godwin truly returned to the fold in Week 4, the Bucs' offense had already begun to work around their poor offensive line; Brady's 2.45 time-to-throw (the average amount of time that elapsed between the snap to an attempted pass) was a full tenth of a second quicker than any other quarterback in the league while his 6.7 intended air yards per pass attempt were his lowest mark since at least 2018.

Godwin became the focal point of Brady's quick-release, low-aDOT (average depth of target) offense. His 5.7 yard aDOT came far closer to the line of scrimmage than even his 7.3 mark from the previous season, which itself was substantially lower than the 10-yard-plus aDOTs he had in the previous 3 seasons. Despite missing several games, his 32 screen pass targets ranked first in the entire league in 2022.

When looking for potential silver linings for the upcoming 2023 season, we can at least point to Godwin's outlier usage and health last year. He was coming off of a major knee injury and still found a way to be productive for fantasy football. The Bucs' offensive line was in shambles, but the team still prioritized getting the ball into his hands. Tom Brady may be gone, but there could be hope that the team's offensive line permits a healthier passing game in 2023. PFF takes an optimistic view on their offensive line, projecting them as the 14th-best unit in the league for the 2023 season.

Dealing With Baker Mayfield

Even if the Bucs' offensive line bounces back and Godwin returns to full health in the upcoming season, the talented wideout will still need to overcome an obstacle few other receivers have managed to beat on his way to a solid fantasy season -- Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield has had an up-and-down tenure in the NFL. Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of his five years in the league has been his inability to get consistent production out of receivers that had previously posted strong numbers in the league.

Mayfield's seasons with the Cleveland Browns led to precipitous drops in the fantasy production of former studs Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham. Mayfield's lack of connection with Landry is of particular note to prospective Godwin drafters. Like Godwin, Landry had been a high-volume receiver in his earlier years before catching passes from Mayfield. With the Miami Dolphins, Landry had averaged an impressive 6.3 receptions per game. That number fell down to just 4.9 receptions per game with the Browns and Mayfield, dropping as low as 4.3 per game in 2021.

Former Carolina Panthers WR1 D.J. Moore had a similar experience with Mayfield. Through their first five games together in 2022, Moore's on-field production took a substantial hit. He averaged just 3.4 catches for 39.4 yards per game in that time. None of his 100-yard receiving games last year came with Mayfield under center.

The optimist's case for Godwin with Mayfield under center would likely refer to new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales as a potential boon for the year. Canales was the Seattle Seahawks' quarterbacks coach last year during Geno Smith's breakout campaign. Canales helped Smith propel both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf to strong fantasy finishes last year, so it would be fair to hold out some hope of the Bucs' new OC revitalizing Mayfield's career.

Should You Draft Chris Godwin?

Godwin's situation is considerably worse heading into 2023 than it has been in recent seasons, but fortunately for fantasy managers his average draft position (ADP) reflects those more concerning circumstances. Where he previously went in the early rounds of fantasy drafts, he's going on average as the WR27 in fantasy drafts this summer according to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data and is usually a sixth-round pick in single-quarterback fantasy leagues.

On paper, he seems like an unexciting option, but he does stack up reasonably well to the other receivers in his area of the draft. Christian Watson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Mike Williams all go close to Godwin in fantasy drafts this year, and none of those receivers have had as many productive seasons in the NFL as Godwin.

The reasons to worry about Godwin are legitimate this season, but he does make for a solid enough WR2 pick for fantasy teams that start their drafts out with multiple running backs in the early rounds.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.