Fantasy Football: 3 Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target in Week 9
Matchups are everything in the NFL, especially at the receiver position.
For fantasy purposes, being able to identify which receivers have advantageous (or disadvantageous) matchups is a sharp way to get a leg up on your opponent.
Each Friday this piece lists the best wide receiver-cornerback matchups for the upcoming week. It doesn't take a genius to tell you to start Justin Jefferson, but there will be weeks when some WR1s have better matchups and other weeks when typical WR2 or WR3s have matchups that bump them up in our weekly rankings.
numberFire's player matchups chart helps to identify advantageous matchups for specific positions. Then, Pro Football Focus' (PFF) Player Grades and their WR/CB Matchup chart are great starting points for identifying which specific matchups we want to target.
Projections and rankings come from our NFL projections, which are powered by numberFire. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated. NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
Week 9 Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups
Chris Olave (NO) vs. Carolina Panthers
numberFire Projection: 11.6 points (WR13)
- 66 Yards
- 5.1 Receptions (7.7 Targets)
- O/U 67.5 Yards
- O/U 5.5 Receptions
- +150 Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Chris Olave returned from a one-game absence to post 8 receptions and 107 yards on 14 targets last week despite catching passes from a combination of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Now, Derek Carr is back, setting up Olave for a strong showing against a vulnerable Carolina Panthers defense.
The Panthers rank 31st in schedule-adjusted pass defense and have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game (232.9). They've been especially vulnerable against opposing wide receivers, permitting the eighth-highest target rate (21.4%), sixth-most yards per route run (1.79), and sixth-most fantasy points per target (1.55) to the position.
Though Olave was quiet in New Orleans' 37-point thrashing of Carolina earlier in the season, he's seen double-digit targets in three of five career games versus the Panthers. As the clear top wideout for the Saints, that could continue in an advantageous head-to-head matchup on Sunday.
Olave split time out wide and in the slot last week, so he figures to see a combination of Jaycee Horn (69.3 PFF coverage grade), Michael Jackson (62.3), and Chau Smith-Wade (29.4). All three have allowed more than 12 yards per reception this season while Jackson and Smith-Wade have yielded passer ratings north of 100 when targeted, per PFF.
Among corners with at least 50 coverage snaps, Smith-Wade has been targeted at the highest rate (4.2 snaps per target) and Jackson has been targeted at the 15th-highest clip (5.3 snaps per target). Horn and Jackson are among just 22 corners who have allowed three-plus touchdowns this season.
The market recognizes Carr's return against such a soft Panthers defense, so I can't quite get there with Olave's yardage or reception props. But considering his hefty target volume, there's a lot to like with his +150 anytime touchdown odds considering the Saints have a healthy 25.25-point implied team total.
In six games this year where Olave has played at least 50% of snaps, he leads the Saints with a 33.3% red zone target share and 36.4% end zone target share. Those are marks that could increase with Rashid Shaheed (28.6% red zone target share; 25.0% end zone target share) out for the season.
Josh Downs (IND) vs. Byron Murphy Jr. (MIN)
numberFire Projection: 10.8 points (WR16)
- 61 Yards
- 5.1 Receptions (8.0 Targets)
- O/U 61.5 Yards
- O/U 5.5 Receptions
- +185 Any Time Touchdown Scorer
We can aggressively bump up Josh Downs in our rankings now that Joe Flacco is taking over at quarterback. In three previous games with Flacco under center, Downs averaged 8 receptions, 10 targets, and 72.3 receiving yards per game. Counting only his games with Flacco, Downs ranks fourth among all wide receivers in fantasy points per route run, trailing just A.J. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Nico Collins.
That puts him in a mouth-watering spot ahead of Sunday Night's showdown with the Minnesota Vikings.
Minnesota is ninth in adjusted pass defense this season, but they've been an incredible volume matchup for opposing passing games. The Vikings are allowing the third-most offensive plays per game while opposing teams have football's highest raw pass rate (68%) against Minnesota.
So, while they're middle of the road in fantasy points per target allowed to wide receivers, the Vikes have surrendered the most fantasy points per game to the position. That's come alongside them permitting the seventh-highest target rate (21.5%) and 10th-most yards per route run (1.68) to receivers.
Downs has played 77% of his snaps from the slot this season, and Minnesota has permitted the second most fantasy points per game to the slot (per Razzball). He'll square off primarily against Byron Murphy (64.4 PFF coverage grade). Among qualified slot corners, Murphy has been targeted at the third-highest rate (3.8 snaps per target) and permitted the fourth-most yards per coverage snap (2.14). He's in the bottom 10 in slot yards allowed (214) despite ranking 28th in slot coverage snaps.
This is a strong schematic matchup for Downs, too. The Vikings play zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate in football while Downs ranks 19th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (1.91) against zone. His target rate jumps from 25.5% to 31.6% when facing zone coverage.
Though Downs' receiving props have ticked up since Flacco was named the starter, this is still a spot I'm comfortable attacking his props. He totaled at least 7 receptions and 66 yards in all three games with Flacco under center, drawing me to the over on his 61.5-yard receiving prop.
DeAndre Hopkins (KC) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
numberFire Projection: 8.5 points (WR36)
- 46 Yards
- 3.7 Receptions (6.1 Targets)
- O/U 43.5 Yards
- O/U 3.5 Receptions
- +200 Any Time Touchdown Scorer
DeAndre Hopkins had only a 32.4% snap rate in his Kansas City Chiefs debut, so there's a chance he goes overlooked this week. But he was third on the team in target per route rate (21.4%) and could see more run with a full week of practice under his belt. That's what happened with Amari Cooper, whose route participation more than doubled in his second week after being traded to the Buffalo Bills.
Assuming he sees a usage bump, D-Hop is in a really nice spot to produce against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. Tampa enters Week 9 ranked 24th in adjusted pass defense while opposing teams have registered the third-highest pass rate over expectation (+0.2%) against the Bucs. In turn, the Bucs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.
Tampa Bay has utilized zone defense at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season, so Hopkins will see several different defenders. But he almost exclusively lined up out wide in his first game with the Chiefs, so we can expect him to face off with Tyler Funderburk (55.3 PFF coverage grade) and Zyon McCollum (85.7 PFF) on the majority of routes.
McCollum is one of PFF's highest-graded coverage corners, but he's still let up an 88.4 passer rating when targeted and the fourth-most yards per reception (16.9) among qualified corners. Funderburk, meanwhile, has permitted the highest passer rating when targeted (156.9) and the second-highest catch rate (91.7%) in the league.
Now, the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites, so we may not see Hopkins fully unleashed in this matchup. But he garnered three downfield targets (10-plus yards) last week, tied for the second-most a KC wide receiver has recorded in a single game all season. That downfield work is something the Chiefs have sorely missed this campaign, and it draws me to his 43.5-yard receiving prop.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.