FanDuel Single-Game DFS Football Helper: Wild Card Sunday (Rams at Lions)

Sunday's matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions carries a 51.5-point over/under, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, which is the highest mark of Super Wild Card Weekend. Detroit is a 3.0-point home favorite, suggesting we should have a competitive, high-scoring affair.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

According to numberFire's model, Jared Goff ($13,000), Matthew Stafford ($12,500), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($15,500), and Kyren Williams ($15,000) have this game's highest fantasy projections.

While neither QB brings any rushing upside to the table, if this matchup turns into a shootout, it's easy to envision a scenario where one or both put up gaudy numbers. Playing in the cozy confines of Ford Field won't hurt, either.

Going by numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings, the Rams are 17th against the pass while the Lions are 29th. Opposing quarterbacks are scoring the fifth-most FanDuel points per game versus L.A. and the third-most facing Detroit.

Despite swapping teams a few years back, not a whole lot separates these two QBs in most passing metrics this season. Goff will have the advantage of playing at home, but Stafford gets the easier defensive matchup. To outpace the field as the optimal MVP, Goff or Stafford would likely need to throw three-plus touchdowns, something both players achieved three times this season.

Moving onto St. Brown, it's rare to see a wide receiver with the highest salary, but it goes to show how dominant he's been lately. Over his last four games, he's scored 20.7, 22.6, 19.1, and 23.9 FanDuel points. The WR4 on a per-game basis this season, St. Brown has averaged 10.3 targets per game with a 30.4% target share, 33.4% air yards share, and 35.7% red zone target share. His MVP appeal is obvious.

The same goes for Williams. Since coming off injured reserve in Week 12, he's averaged a whopping 131.5 scrimmage yards off 21.8 carries and 4.0 targets per game. Williams has also logged a 79.5% red zone rush share and 15.4% red zone target share over this span, helping him to eight total touchdowns in six games. This isn't an ideal matchup against a defense that's eighth versus the run in numberFire's metrics and has allowed the fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs -- but his elite role leaves the door open for another massive performance.

While these four players will be featured at MVP in the brunt of fantasy lineups, there's plenty of upside to be found through Puka Nacua ($13,500), Cooper Kupp ($11,000), Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,500), and David Montgomery ($11,500), as well.

In games with Stafford, Nacua, and Kupp all healthy, Nacua and Kupp have had identical target shares (27.6%), but Nacua holds the edge in air yards (34.7% to 27.1%), whereas Kupp has more red zone targets (36.5% to 19.2%). Although the presence of both makes it difficult to predict which one will go off in a given game, this is the right spot to take a shot. Detroit's coughed up the third-most FanDuel points per game to WRs.

We have a similar situation with the Lions' RBs, who often eat into each other's fantasy upside. Since Montgomery returned from injury in Week 10, Gibbs has had the upper hand in snap (57.9% to 41.4%) and target share (12.8% to 4.7%), but their overall workloads tend to be split down the middle, which includes a close divide in red zone touches.

While the committee backfield places them behind the other top MVP candidates, Detroit loves to lean on the running game when they can, so a multi-touchdown result from one of these backs can't be ruled out entirely. The Rams haven't allowed a ton of fantasy points to the position this year, but numberFire sees them as just the 25th-best adjusted rush defense.

If you're of the belief that this game lives up to its lofty over/under, there are several Wild Card Weekend Specials on FanDuel Sportsbook involving the players listed above. This includes Gibbs and Montgomery combining for 3+ TDs (+450), St. Brown and Nacua combining for 250+ receiving yards (+600), or Kyren Williams scoring at least one rushing TD and one receiving score (+1200). There's even a longshot wager on Stafford or Goff throwing for 500+ passing yards (+15000).

Flex Breakdown

Lions tight end Sam LaPorta ($10,000) seems unlikely to play after missing practice on Wednesday, but he's reportedly "improving," so there's an outside chance he's able to suit up.

If LaPorta is active, he's an excellent flex play as Goff's second option behind St. Brown. The TE has a 20.9% target share and 21.6% red zone target share this season, and the matchup checks out against a defense that's given up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends and is 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target to the position.

On the other hand, if LaPorta remains sidelined, it does leave more looks for Detroit's complementary wide receivers. With numberFire's model factoring in a LaPorta absence, it projects Josh Reynolds ($8,000) for 4.6 targets and Jameson Williams ($7,500) for 3.5 targets. Reynolds has a decent chance for a TD even if LaPorta plays; the wideout owns a 16.2% red zone target share and a team-best 36.4% end zone target share this season.

On the Rams' side, Demarcus Robinson ($9,500) and Tyler Higbee ($8,000) are the best remaining pass-catchers.

Robinson is projected for 5.3 targets, which is the game's fourth-best mark behind St. Brown (11.0), Nacua (9.5), and Kupp (8.8). Since seeing a bump in playing time in Week 14, he's logged a 21.3% target share, 91.2% snap rate, and 96.1% route rate over his last four games (excluding Week 18).

Higbee practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday, which could be a positive sign that he'll be back this weekend. He's generally a low-upside play as a tight end who doesn't get a ton of red zone looks, but his 14.2% target share is the third-best on the team.

With what should be a high-scoring game, defenses and kickers get downgraded here, as a flurry of touchdowns would likely leave these positions off the optimal lineup. That being said, kicking in a dome doesn't hurt for Mike Badgley ($9,000) and Brett Maher ($8,500).

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.