FanDuel Single-Game DFS Football Helper: Divisional Round Saturday (Texans at Ravens)

After securing a lopsided win over the Cleveland Browns on Wild Card Weekend, the No. 4 seed Houston Texans are set to face the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round on Saturday. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites, and the over/under is sitting at 43.5.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Lamar Jackson ($17,000) -- Not much needs to be said about why Lamar Jackson is a slam-dunk pick for the MVP spot. The front runner for the NFL MVP award led all quarterbacks with a 56.9% passing success rate and 51.3 rushing yards per game, via NextGenStats. Jackson was aggressive when he aired the ball out this season, producing the eighth-most intended air yards per attempt (8.7).

With Jackson being a quarterback who loves to push the ball down the field, it should be noted that the Texans are allowing the sixth-most air yards per attempt (8.37) and the second-highest completion percentage over expected (0.05) to quarterbacks. Houston's defense is also allowing the second-highest rushing expected points added (15.08) to quarterbacks among teams remaining in the postseason.

C.J. Stroud ($15,000) -- It was a less-than-ideal matchup for C.J. Stroud when the Texans squared off against the Browns last week. The rookie quarterback would silence any doubters by dissecting Cleveland's formidable defense to the tune of 274 yards and three touchdowns on only 21 attempts. If the Texans want to have any chance of walking into Baltimore and defeating the Ravens, Stroud will need to play mistake-free football again.

While the Ravens deploy a daunting defensive unit, they rank 17th in passing average depth of target allowed to quarterbacks. It just so happens that the Texans are an offense that prefers to attack vertically, evidenced by Stroud registering the fourth-most intended air yards per attempt (9.2).

Nico Collins ($14,000) -- The Texans continue to sustain injuries at the wide receiver position, making Nico Collins the clear No. 1 pass-catching option for Stroud. Tank Dell suffered a season-ending leg injury earlier this season, and Noah Brown was placed on season-ending injured reserve following Houston's win last week. Since Dell exited in Week 12, Collins leads the Texans in target share (31.9%), air yards share (42.6%), yards per route run (5.12), and red-zone target share (35.3%).

In that same seven-game span, Collins is producing 22.1 FanDuel points per game, which includes back-to-back outings with at least 19 FanDuel points in his last two games. Even though the Ravens have a dominant defense, Collins is going to see plenty of volume in an offense that is expected to be playing from behind.

Gus Edwards ($11,000) -- The Ravens have proven they can win in a variety of ways, and one of those ways is for them to run the ball effectively -- and often. Given his role as the primary ball carrier and red-zone back in Baltimore's offense, Gus Edwards is an interesting choice at MVP. Edwards leads the Ravens with 13 rushing touchdowns and a 29.6% red-zone opportunity share.

The Texans certainly have a stout run defense that permits the second-fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.48) and the fewest rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.73). At the same time, the Ravens own the fourth-best schedule-adjusted rushing offense, per numberFire's metrics. Houston's defense has also given up the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (20) in the NFL.

Flex Breakdown

Justin Tucker ($9,500)/Ka'imi Fairbairn ($9,000) -- Being that the anticipated bout between the Texans and the Ravens has the lowest projected total (43.5) among the four Divisional Round games, the kickers are undoubtedly worthy of being flex options. Justin Tucker needs no introduction as the best kicker in football, averaging a sturdy 9.4 FanDuel points per game and posting at least 10 FanDuel points in five of his last seven outings.

On the other side, Ka'imi Fairbairn has been efficient, converting 28 of his 29 field-goal attempts thus far. The placekicker for the Texans has notched 9.5 FanDuel points per game and at least nine FanDuel points in three of his last five contests. The Ravens also surrender the second-lowest red-zone touchdown percentage (40.82%) in the NFL, so Fairbairn could be busy on Saturday.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,500) -- When the Ravens put the ball in the air on Saturday, they'll likely have Jackson targeting down the field more often than not. The Texans are giving up the third-most yards per route run (1.60) and the highest average depth of target (12.4) to wide receivers among the remaining teams in the playoffs. Houston's defense is also 29th in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed (1.52) to receivers.

While Zay Flowers has emerged as Baltimore's leading wideout, Odell Beckham has shown he still has some juice left at 31 years old. The electric pass catcher leads the Ravens in air yards share (25.4%) and average depth of target (14.6), indicating that he's the team's preferred vertical option in the passing game. There's a chance Mark Andrews returns from injured reserve on Saturday, but Beckham should continue operating as a downfield threat for Jackson.

Isaiah Likely ($8,000) -- Speaking of Andrews, Isaiah Likely did a phenomenal job filling in for the All-Pro tight end during his stint on injured reserve. Since replacing Andrews in Week 12, Likely has notched the third-highest target share (17.4%), the most yards per route run (2.09), and the most receiving yards per game (58.2) on the Ravens. Even if Andrews makes his awaited return, Likely should maintain a role in the offense given how he's performed entering the playoffs.

The Texans have been a team to target with tight ends all season, with them giving up the most receptions (111) and receiving yards (1,133) to the position among the teams playing this weekend. Additionally, the Texans have surrendered the second-highest catch rate over expected (2.9%) and the most yards per route run (1.65) to tight ends.

John Metchie III ($7,500) -- With Dell and Brown now sidelined, the Texans need someone else who can stretch the field at the receiver position. John Metchie III fits that profile as a speedy wideout who can excel in a role where he's asked to create explosive plays. Metchie is dealing with a foot injury, but he's logged limited practices to begin the week and his status for Saturday's game doesn't seem to be in jeopardy.

Outside of Collins, the Texans need another receiver to step up -- especially if the Ravens center their attention on containing Collins. If Robert Woods is sidelined or limited, there's a chance Metchie sees a decent-sized workload against the Ravens. In last week's win over the Browns, Metchie had the second-highest route participation (68.2%), second-highest target share (13.6%), and the second-most YPRR (2.93) on the Texans.

If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 20th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.