FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5 Sunday Night (Cowboys at 49ers)

Sunday night games are designed to be great, but I'm not sure anyone could have forecasted two titans at the complete peak of their powers here. Fresh off handing Bill Belichick the worst loss of his career, the Dallas Cowboys will travel to face the 4-0 San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara.

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this one, and its projected total is 45.0 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

For good reason, Christian McCaffrey ($17,500) will overwhelmingly be the most popular MVP candidate on this slate.

McCaffrey has the best workload for a running back in the NFL, averaging 30.5 adjusted opportunities (carries plus double targets) per game while playing 80.1% of the Niners' snaps. In addition to his incredible efficiency, San Fran seems dead set on hoisting McCaffrey into the MVP conversation by affording him 6.5 red zone opportunities per game to score. Until that changes, you can't really argue against him when Dallas is only numberFire's 12th-best schedule-adjusted rush defense.

With that said, I think the most under-the-radar trend to know for this slate is that the Niners' defense hasn't been special like in years past. They're just 12th overall in those same rankings with the 12th-best pass defense and a below average (18th-best) rush defense. Therefore, I'm not sure it'd be a total shock if the Cowboys had an easier time moving the ball.

If they're moving the ball, Tony Pollard ($15,500) is likely involved in the process. Pollard has still played a healthy 67.0% of Dallas' snaps, which might be a mark closer to McCaffrey's if not for three separate wins by at least two touchdowns. Pollard also isn't far behind in adjusted opportunities per game (26.8) with a better matchup; I'd turn to him as a contrarian MVP choice if afforded just one lineup.

Dak Prescott ($14,000) has always been a bit lesser version of himself on the road, but he'll also face an easier assignment than Brock Purdy ($14,500) when comparing the signal-callers at MVP. The larger issue with both is that these teams actively try to avoid making them work with bottom-five pass rates over expectation.

Purdy has topped out below 22 FanDuel points in sublime matchups against the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals in consecutive weeks, so the idea he tops both McCaffrey and Pollard against numberFire's third-best pass defense would be especially wild. Dak, on the other hand, could be busier if the Cowboys are thrust into an early hole. We saw him throw it 40 times in a Week 3 loss to the aforementioned Cards.

These pass-catching groups are both viciously deep, so I'm hard-pressed to build an argument for anyone besides the QBs and RBs at the multiplier -- and the RBs are significantly ahead.

Flex Breakdown

No, the salary on Brandon Aiyuk ($15,000) isn't a typo. He's earned that despite not being a true MVP candidate to me.

Aiyuk leads this game in target share (27.4%) and has posted 85.3 yards per game on just 7.7 targets. Aiyuk has leapt ahead of Deebo Samuel ($12,500) and George Kittle ($10,000) in the offensive pecking order; Samuel's 22.1-FanDuel-point outburst in Week 3 came with Aiyuk sidelined. Deebo didn't even see a target last week, but I do think he'll be a bit busier if he plays through a knee issue.

At a lower salary, Kittle might be the most appealing of the three despite just one target last week himself. He's yet to score on just two total red zone targets, and the big-bodied tight end is always a candidate for regression with that the case. However, his situation speaks to the general issue with any non-CMC piece in this offense right now; they're just flatly not getting chances to score.

For the visitors, I'd have expected a larger role for CeeDee Lamb ($13,000) entering the year, but he's just not the true top target on the offense. In the Cowboys' only competitive contest, Lamb, Michael Gallup ($8,500), and Jake Ferguson ($8,500) each got seven targets, and Brandin Cooks ($8,000) wasn't far behind with six. Lamb still leads the team in routes per game (32.0), but his salary could be a tough ask when he hasn't totally separated from Cooks or Gallup -- historically productive players in their own right.

Really, the only other piece with significant enough work to matter could be Elijah Mitchell ($7,500). He has the potential to vulture a score from McCaffrey -- as if that would happen on Kyle Shanahan's obsessive watch. Still, Mitchell might end up just bolstering an argument for CMC when he's trending in the wrong direction to even be available for Sunday's game.

Because of the slow pace and low pass rates in this game, I do prefer taking the angle that this game becomes a bit of a grind where the defenses have plenty of success. We'll have to see which side wins out when the San Francisco D/ST ($10,500) and Dallas D/ST ($9,500) both have top-10 pressure rates in the league but are facing offensive lines with bottom-10 rates allowed.

Purdy and Prescott have also combined to throw just one interception, but S.F.'s quarterback has put the ball on the ground twice this season. These have still been offenses not prone to making mistakes, which could ultimately limit upside for the D/STs.

However, I do think the kickers are on the board if these teams bend but don't break. With range we've seen up to 55 yards, Brandon Aubrey ($9,000) has yet to miss a kick since his first extra point in Week 1. Jake Moody ($9,000) is also perfect on every kick and compiled at least 12 points in each of the Niners' first three games before the team went five-for-five in red zone last week against Arizona.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.