FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Monday Night (Broncos at Bills)

Week 10 hasn't exactly given us the most exciting island games, so let's hope we're in for a pleasant surprise on Monday night. The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos as 7.0-point home favorites, and the game's total is set at 47.5, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Predictably, Josh Allen ($17,500) is the highest projected player in numberFire's model by a country mile, and he's the chalk MVP play.

Allen is averaging 24.4 FanDuel points per game, which is this year's best mark not just among quarterbacks but across all positions. Allen has a rushing score in six of the last seven games, and he's scored 25-plus fantasy points five times over that span. He shouldn't have much trouble producing against a Denver team that ranks 32nd in schedule-adjusted total defense, per numberFire, which includes being 31st in adjusted pass defense.

With the masses presumably flocking to Allen at MVP, chances are just about any other player should see a reduced roster percentage in the multiplier slot.

Going with Allen's top weapon, Stefon Diggs ($15,500), is one obvious alternative. Diggs' pass-catching role is unmatched on Buffalo. He comes in with a 31.8% target share, 41.6% air yards share, 29.5% red zone share, and 30.0% end zone share. He's reached 100 yards and/or scored a touchdown in seven of nine games. numberFire's model projects him for a whopping 10.8 targets, which is easily tops on the board.

For a more sneaky MVP play from Buffalo, tight end Dalton Kincaid ($10,500) is worth considering after notching season-highs in targets (11), receptions (10), and yards (81) last week. He actually led the team in route participation rate (97.4%), too. The Broncos have allowed the most FanDuel points per game to TEs, so another big performance could be in store for the rookie.

Flipping over to the other side, Russell Wilson ($15,000) is viable against a Bills defense that's struggled with injuries and gave up 29 points to the lowly New England Patriots a few weeks back.

Wilson's just the QB18 in fantasy points per game, and the Broncos seem content to limit his pass attempts when they have the lead. However, as touchdown underdogs on the road, Denver will likely need to lean on their quarterback's arm, potentially boosting Wilson's upside. He's also been running a bit more this year, averaging 25.1 rushing yards per game.

If the Broncos do get out to a lead, it's pretty clear they'll want to turn to Javonte Williams ($12,000) as much as possible. In Denver's Week 8 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, Williams logged 27 carries and 3 targets, and he was the only running back to earn carries in the red zone. Any RB with the potential for that kind of volume has appeal in the multiplier slot.

Flex Breakdown

James Cook ($11,000) is the lone player projected for double-digit FanDuel points who was omitted from the MVP section.

That isn't to say he isn't capable of emerging as the slate's top scorer, but his frustrating timeshare with Latavius Murray ($7,500) is a major hurdle for his upside. Since Damien Harris was injured early on in Week 6, Cook has averaged just 11.8 rushes and 2.0 targets per game with a slight edge in snaps over Murray (56.7% to 42.1%). Cook also splits red zone carries with both Murray and Josh Allen, and he has just one rushing touchdown all year.

The good news is that Denver is 31st in adjusted rush defense and has coughed up the most FanDuel points per game to RBs. Given the matchup, Cook is a solid flex and a fringe MVP option, whereas Murray is a touchdown-or-bust value play.

Gabriel Davis ($12,500) is about as all-or-nothing as they come, scoring 18-plus points three times this season while also being held below 5 points on four occasions, including a goose egg just last week. Overall, he's recorded a 16.1% target share, 26.3% air yards share, 20.5% red zone share, and 45.0% end zone share. He's a risky play, but there's MVP-level upside if you're willing to roll the dice.

While they play different positions, wideout Khalil Shakir ($8,000) has seen an uptick in snaps with Dawson Knox out, showing a 68.0% snap rate, 75.0% route rate, and 14.3% target share over the last two games. He's emerged as Buffalo's third wide receiver behind Diggs and Davis.

The Broncos' top pass-catchers continue to be Courtland Sutton ($13,000) and Jerry Jeudy ($10,000). In seven games together, Sutton holds a slight edge in target share (22.9% to 21.8%), whereas Jeudy leads in air yards share (35.7% to 32.7%). However, Sutton distances himself with a significant leg up in red zone share (28.6% to 10.7%) and end zone share (63.6% to 9.1%).

We've been waiting all season for Marvin Mims ($7,500) to get more involved, and this is theoretically an ideal time for him to see a bump in snaps after a bye week. For what it's worth, Sean Payton claims they want to get the rookie more opportunities, too. Mims did see a season-high 40.0% snap rate in Week 8, which coincided with Brandon Johnson being out. While we probably shouldn't get our hopes up, the salary is low enough to take a few swings.

Adam Trautman ($6,500) is about as unexciting as they come, but he ranks highly in both snap rate (80.1%) and route rate (70.5%). Although it's only amounted to an 8.5% target share, his 17.6% red zone share is the team's second-best mark.

Backup running backs Jaleel McLaughlin ($8,000) and Samaje Perine ($7,000) should both see a handful of opportunities, but they've seen their snaps dwindle in recent weeks. If you're going here, Perine is the preferred option as the primary pass-catching back in what could be a negative game script.

Considering the high over/under, kickers Tyler Bass ($8,500) and Wil Lutz ($9,000) will have a tough time cracking the optimal lineup if we see as many touchdowns as expected. And given the state of the two defenses, this is probably a game to mostly ignore the Buffalo D/ST ($9,500) and Denver D/ST ($8,500), too. Russell Wilson does have the league's fifth-highest sack rate (10.0%), though.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.