FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 1 Monday Night (Bills at Jets)

Week 1's final game is filled with intrigue as the new-look New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. Both teams are firmly in the top 10 of our opening power rankings, so we should have a tight, competitive matchup on tap. The visiting Bills are mere 2.0-point favorites, and the over/under is set at 45.5.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Predictably, dual-threat Josh Allen ($17,500) leads numberFire's projections as the only player pegged for more than 20 FanDuel points. In the 2022 regular season, he was one of just three players to average more than 25 FanDuel points per game, and that included five weeks where he went off from 29-plus points.

Last year, Allen struggled through the air in his two games against this tough Jets pass defense, but he still managed to put up fantasy points by averaging 9.5 carries, 66.5 rushing yards, and 1.5 scores on the ground.

His upside isn't in question, and the only thing preventing us from locking him in at MVP will be his inevitable popularity.

Hard Knocks darling Aaron Rodgers ($16,000) will presumably be a chalky MVP, as well, though the likelihood of him leading the slate in scoring is less certain after he failed to crack 20 FanDuel points even once in 2022. Not only does Rodgers not run much anymore, but he's known for playing at a slow pace, and his limited preseason play suggests we could see more of the same in New York.

While we shouldn't rule out a big game from a revitalized Rodgers alongside his improved supporting cast, he's an easier sell as a flex play if it sounds like the masses will be flocking to him at the multiplier slot.

If you're pivoting away from the signal-callers at MVP, star wideouts Stefon Diggs ($14,500) and Garrett Wilson ($13,500) are two of the clear alternatives.

Leading last year's Bills in target share (27.9%), air yards share (34.6%), and end zone target share (32.5%), Diggs remains atop the pecking order in this passing attack. However, the Jets allowed the fewest FanDuel points to wide receivers in 2022, which will be a major hurdle to overcome.

On the other side, Wilson is coming off a fantastic rookie campaign and finished as last year's WR19 despite a revolving door at quarterback. The expected touchdown data suggests his year should've been even better, too.

It remains to be seen what kind of target share Wilson will see with his new QB, but as a certain Davante Adams showed us for years, Rodgers isn't afraid to pick favorites. It can't hurt that the Bills allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points to wide receivers in 2022, too. Wilson is one of my favorite MVP picks.

If you're going to a stab at a contrarian choice, Gabriel Davis ($11,500) will likely be an afterthought in the multiplier slot.

While Davis' 17.9% target share was significantly lower than Diggs' in 2022, a 30.4% air yards share and 31.6% end zone target share show a path to a high ceiling. At the end of August, Davis was named a team captain for the first time, which could be a sign that Buffalo is expecting big things from their No. 2 wideout this year.

Flex Breakdown

There's an outside shot either Dalvin Cook ($12,000) or Breece Hall ($12,500) emerge with the night's top score if one or the other punches in multiple touchdowns, so they're borderline MVP plays. However, chances are they eat into each other's upside.

Cook will reportedly get the larger share of opportunities to begin the year, but it wouldn't be surprising to see this play out as a fairly even split. Our model projects both to reach double-digit rush attempts with a handful of targets, making them ideal flex options.

James Cook ($11,000) got a lot of buzz during fantasy draft season, but Damien Harris ($9,500) and Josh Allen likely stand in his way as touchdown vultures near the goal line. As the lead back on a dynamic offense, Cook still has plenty of appeal, but his workload projects to be similar to that of the aforementioned Dalvin Cook and Hall. Harris is more of a touchdown-or-bust play.

Hopping over to the Jets' pass-catchers, Allen Lazard ($10,000) is expected to be Rodgers' second option, and he's projected for the slate's fourth-most targets.

It gets a little more murky after that, with Mecole Hardman ($7,000), Randall Cobb ($7,500), and tight end Tyler Conklin ($8,000) being the most likely candidates to split the rest of the pie. In 2022, Buffalo allowed the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends, which could downgrade Conklin's appeal.

Similarly, ranking Buffalo's remaining pass-catchers behind Diggs and Davis is difficult, but tight ends Dalton Kincaid ($7,000) and Dawson Knox ($8,500) should both be involved, and they project as the next-best choices. Kincaid was a first-round pick in this year's draft and is a possible breakout candidate.

Deonte Harty ($5,500) should be Allen's main option out of the slot, making him someone to roll the dice on at this modest salary.

We're expecting rain prior to the game and possibly during parts of it, which could bump up the defenses, both of which were top-10 schedule-adjusted units last season, per numberFire's metrics. But of the two quarterbacks, Allen's historically the more likely one to turn the ball over, and the Jets D/ST ($9,000) are at home.

In lineup builds that assume it's a low-scoring affair, kickers Tyler Bass ($9,000) and Greg Zuerlein ($8,000) can fit in as value plays, too.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.