FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 7/25/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.

Statistics are via FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

Top Options

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers ($10,300)

It took some time, but Corbin Burnes has heated up. Through four July starts, the 2021 Cy Young winner has allowed just eight hits and four runs -- the same number of hits and runs he allowed in his final start in June. Averaging 54.3 FanDuel points per game over that span, Burnes makes for one of Tuesday's top pitching plays.

Burnes' Milwaukee Brewers have an interesting matchup against the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati's offense has taken a massive step forward since they kicked off their youth movement, but they're batting just .222 since the All-Star Break. They've struck out at a 25.3% clip in that time, the eighth-highest in the majors.

Burnes, meanwhile, has already locked them down this month. Over two starts against Cincy, Burnes has managed 12 innings, giving up just 2 runs and striking out 19. That includes his most recent outing against them on July 14th when he struck out 13 in six shutout innings and generated a season-high 19 swinging strikes.

He hasn't fared well against only the Reds, however. Burnes has allowed more than three runs just twice over his last 10 starts and is coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Although he still boasts a career-worst strikeout rate (25.4%) and SIERA (4.06), Burnes' recent upward trend has me hopeful that has turned a corner and is back to being the bonafide ace he once was.

numberFire projects Burnes for 33.2 FanDuel points tonight. If his recent play is any indication, that could be his floor.

Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins ($10,000)

Minnesota Twins righty Pablo Lopez clocks in as our next top pitcher in DFS. Lopez gets a rematch with the Seattle Mariners, against whom he dropped a solid 30 FanDuel points last week -- giving up two runs and striking out seven in five innings of work.

All the underlying ingredients are there for Lopez to output a stellar outing. His Statcast page is a sight to behold, with his 89th-percentile strikeout rate (30.2%) really standing out.

Other than a blowup against the Oakland Athletics, Lopez has been a consistent fantasy option over the last month-plus. Across his previous eight starts, Lopez averaged 39.8 FanDuel points per game. He punched out at least six batters in all eight of those outings -- a mark he has a strong chance of hitting again tonight.

The matchup is just as juicy as it was last week. Seattle continues to strike out at an ugly 24.9% clip when facing right-handed pitchers. In that same split, they rank just 21st in wOBA (.310).

They've been even worse since the All-Star break, boasting a 28.9% strikeout rate while averaging just 3.8 runs per game over their last 11.

numberFire projects Lopez for 37.1 FanDuel points tonight, making him a worthy addition to any DFS lineup.

Justin Verlander, New York Mets ($9,600)

Speaking of former Cy Youngs who have turned a corner of late, Justin Verlander is finally looking like the ace the New York Mets expected.

Over his last five starts, Verlander has allowed just six total runs and a .243 wOBA. He has a strong chance to keep that momentum rolling tonight against the New York Yankees.

While Verlander has been pitching well for the better part of a month, he is also coming off his best start of the year. He pitched eight innings of one-run ball against the Chicago White Sox last week -- striking out seven and tying his season-best mark with 14 swinging strikes.

That bodes well for his chances tonight considering the Yankees have been one of the worst offenses in baseball since Aaron Judge hit the IL. From June 4th onward, the Yankees own the third-lowest wOBA (.294), the fourth-lowest wRC+ (86), and the sixth-lowest hard-hit rate (31.2%).

numberFire projects Verlander for only 28.9 FanDuel points tonight, a testament to how inconsistent he's been. Still, coming off his best start of the season and in a soft matchup, Verlander makes for a strong DFS play.

Value Plays

Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants ($8,900)

Although he's coming off a rough outing, Alex Cobb has quietly put together another stellar season for the San Francisco Giants. Through 18 starts, Cobb has a 6-3 record to go along with a 3.77 SIERA and 21.1% strikeout rate.

Those aren't eye-popping numbers by any means, but with six starts of 40-plus FanDuel points, Cobb has proven capable of being a strong DFS option in the right matchup.

Tonight is the right matchup as Cobb faces the lowly Oakland Athletics. Oakland boasts a putrid lineup, and their active roster has the lowest wOBA (.292) against right-handed pitchers. While Cobb isn't a huge strikeout guy, this matchup gives him more juice in the K department.

numberFire projects Cobb for 33.7 FanDuel points tonight. He may not have the highest ceiling compared to some of the other pitchers on the board, but Cobb's stellar matchup makes him one of the top values in DFS.

Domingo Germán, New York Yankees ($8,200)

Remember when Domingo German threw a perfect game?

While it's farfetched to assume he'll even come close to that 64-FanDuel-point effort again this year, the New York Yankees' righty has continued to pitch well following his historic performance at the end of June. Although he did give up five runs in his most recent outing, he also eclipsed nine strikeouts for the third time in his last four appearances.

German has been incredibly up and down all season, but his 4.02 SIERA and 25.3% strikeout rate make him a serviceable value play in the right matchups.

Luckily for him, the Mets are reeling right now. Since the All-Star break, the Mets have averaged just 3.7 runs per game -- the second-fewest in the league. That's largely thanks to an ugly .274 wOBA, although their 22.9% strikeout rate over that stretch isn't doing them any favors, either.

numberFire projects German for 29.4 FanDuel points tonight. That isn't an earth-shattering projection by any means, but if the righty can maintain his recent strikeout trends, he could finish right in line with the top-end starters at a fraction of the salary.

Honorable Mentions

This is an odd slate that really lends itself to the top options -- something that happens when 10 of the 22 listed starters are salaried over $9,000.

Thus, on a pitcher-heavy day, there are more than a handful of building blocks. A pair of southpaws, Blake Snell ($11,000) and Andrew Abbott ($10,800), carry the two highest salaries. Both have solid matchups and have been otherworldly over the last two months, but I'm worried about their viability at such a steep cap hit. Abbott, specifically, scares me at that salary -- his 4.36 SIERA and 44.2% hard-hit rate scream regression.

I touched on the Minnesota side of today's Twins-Mariners matchup, but when the two strikeout-heaviest teams in the league square off, you can't go wrong either way. George Kirby ($9,900) dropped 61 FanDuel points against the Twins just last week and could flirt with double-digit strikeouts again tonight. He's a fine option with Minnesota striking out a 28.3% clip against righties.

Merrill Kelly ($10,500) isn't someone worth the risk for me tonight. He's coming off the IL to make his first start in over a month against the St. Louis Cardinals -- owners of a .338 wOBA against righties, the fifth-highest mark in the league.

The same goes for Charlie Morton ($9,700) as he makes a trip to Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox are averaging 5.9 runs per game since the All-Star Break and rank in the top half of the league in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Thank you -- next.

Aaron Civale ($9,300) was a staple in the value section when his Cleveland Guardians took on their soft divisional foes. He's sadly played his way out of that salary range but still makes for an excellent DFS selection tonight. The Kansas City Royals are a dream matchup for righties -- ranking last in wRC+ and striking out at the third-highest rate in the split.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.