FanDuel Pitching Primer: Monday 8/14/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for Monday's main DFS slate on FanDuel, beginning at 7:10 p.m. (EST).

All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Top Options

Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays ($10,700)

Tyler Glasnow's services in DFS come with a slate-high salary, but he's well worth the investment.

With the Tampa Bay Rays set to take on the San Francisco Giants, Glasnow is my top pitcher of the night, thanks both to his recent play and the soft matchup.

Glasnow has been nothing short of tremendous this season, especially of late. Though he hasn't pitched since July due to back spasms, he's progressed well enough over the last two weeks to warrant the start tonight.

That rest could have Glasnow's arm fresher than ever -- though it's not like he needed it. The 6'8" righty has strung together four consecutive quality starts and has only allowed more than three runs once in 12 outings. He's well-deserving of his solid ERA (3.15), too. For the season, Glasnow owns a 2.99 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), the second-lowest mark of any pitcher with at least 60 innings of work.

He continues to operate as one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects. In addition to his 34.5% strikeout rate and 17.9% swinging-strike rate (both second to only Spencer Strider), Glasnow has registered six-plus punchouts in all 12 of his starts.

San Francisco, meanwhile, has struggled mightily since the All-Star break. They've averaged the second-fewest runs per game (3.57), stuck out at the fourth-highest rate (24.9%), and registered a bottom-10 wOBA (.308) over that span.

Tonight, the Giants' implied team total of 3.56 sits at the bottom of the slate. Though numberFire only projects Glasnow for 28.1 FanDuel points tonight, his seven-game stretch of at least 38 points gives me confidence in slotting him into any DFS lineup.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners ($10,000)

Coming off the best start of his career, Logan Gilbert projects for another strong outing tonight against the Kansas City Royals.

In his most recent start, Gilbert racked up a season-high 67 FanDuel points. He picked up a quality start thanks to 7.0 shutout innings during which he gave up just a single hit and struck out 12. That effort dropped his SIERA down to 3.66 and bumped his strikeout rate up to 25.1% -- both top-25 marks in the majors.

Gilbert has had something of a breakout season for the Seattle Mariners. In addition to his career-best SIERA, he's cut his walk rate down to 4.4% and is allowing a strong 32.4% hard contact rate. Averaging 33.5 FanDuel points per game, Gilbert has established himself as a reliable starter, both in real life and in DFS.

However, with other top pitchers available tonight, Gilbert's matchup is what puts him above the pack.

Although the Royals' offense has looked better over the second half of the season, they still rank in the bottom five in wOBA (.309) and weighted runs created plus (92 wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season. They aren't the cakewalk they used to be but are still a solid matchup for strong pitchers.

numberFire projects Gilbert for 31.2 FanDuel points tonight, which is the third-highest projection of the slate and a worthy number for any DFS lineup.

Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals ($9,200)

We're staying in Kansas City for the final top pitching option in DFS tonight, taking a look at Brady Singer.

Singer is far from a sure thing, but his recent performances have me hopeful the former top prospect has turned a corner.

Since the All-Star break, Singer has racked up a 3-0 record to go along with a 3.39 SIERA. He continues to allow hard hits at a concerningly-high rate (44% since the All-Star break and 50.4% overall), but he's offset that by allowing a minuscule 4.4% barrel rate over the second half.

While he has regressed mightily in the strikeout department this season (down to 19.4%), Singer has stabilized that number since the All-Star break, inching it back up to 23.8% thanks to two outings with nine-plus strikeouts. He's got a great chance to rack up the Ks again tonight with the Mariners in town.

For the season, Seattle holds the third-highest strikeout rate (26.0%) against right-handed pitchers. In general, they've struggled against righties, boasting an ugly .308 wOBA and registering hard hits just 33.9% of the time. That bodes well for a pitcher like Singer, who could use some help in both departments.

numberFire projects Singer for 25.9 FanDuel points tonight, but considering he's averaging 38.2 points per game since the All-Star break, that projection could be his floor. If you're looking for someone with contest-winning potential who has a lower roster rate than some of the top-end starters, Singer is your guy.

Value Plays

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals ($8,000)

The Oakland Athletics visit the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

Time to fire up whichever opposing pitcher takes the mound. Tonight, that's righty Miles Mikolas.

Listen, plugging a Cardinals pitcher into your DFS lineup isn't going to feel great.

I get it.

But we need to ignore how atrocious that staff (and Mikolas) has been this season and look at the matchup -- the A's feature arguably the worst lineup in baseball.

For the season, Oakland has averaged by far the fewest runs per game (3.56) while ranking 30th in wOBA (.299), 22nd in isolated power (.162), and 27th in hard-hit rate (29.9%) against right-handed pitchers. Though they've been better since the All-Start break, the A's still have a sub-.315 wOBA and a strikeout rate north of 25% in that split.

That lines up for a nice start for the righty, Mikolas.

Though he's been incredibly inconsistent this season, when Mikolas is on, he's on.

Of his 25 starts, four have resulted in 45-plus FanDuel points, with a 64-point gem against the Royals really standing out. Though he has just as many starts with single-digit points, he is coming off back-to-back strong outings against playoff teams. He lasted 7.0 innings against both Tampa Bay and the Minnesota Twins, finishing with 34 and 40 points, respectively.

Sure, Mikolas' 4.68 SIERA is ugly, and his 16.5% strikeout rate is far from appealing in fantasy. But he doesn't have to be an ace in this matchup and at this salary. If you can load up on top-tier hitters, Mikolas should be able to give you a solid, albeit unspectacular, outing at a fraction of the salary of some of the other, more rostered pitchers.

numberFire projects Mikolas for 26.8 FanDuel points, the highest projection for any pitcher salaried under $9,000. This is purely a matchup play, but with two consecutive quality starts and the Athletics on deck, Mikolas is the top-value play on the board tonight.

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles ($7,500)

How lucky do you feel tonight?

Though Grayson Rodriguez is a prime regression candidate tonight against the San Diego Padres, he's pitched well enough since returning to the majors that he warrants real consideration in a slate light on low-salaried options.

The Baltimore Orioles brought Rodriguez back up to the majors after the All-Star break, and he's since managed a 3.45 ERA despite five brutal matchups. He notably held the red-hot Astros to just two runs in his most recent start, though he also gave up six hits and two walks. Walks have remained an issue since his return to the bigs, as he's issued two free passes in all five of his starts.

Still, a 1.08 WHIP and 21.2% strikeout rate is nothing to complain about for a 23-year-old. The bigger worry for Rodriguez is how much he's outperformed his ERA estimators. Since the All-Star break, G-Rod has a 2.74 fielding independent pitching (FIP) despite a 3.83 xFIP. A similar trend follows his ERA, which sits at 3.45 over that span compared to a 4.20 SIERA.

That said, we're still talking about one of the best pitching prospects in baseball -- one who has more than held his own against some of MLB's most explosive offenses. He's done an excellent job limiting barrels (3.8%), and his 13.4% swinging-strike rate leads the team since the All-Star break.

The matchup isn't as bad as you'd think, either.

Even if the Padres boast a scary lineup on paper, it hasn't looked nearly as frightening in the post-game box scores.

For the season, San Diego ranks just 13th in wRC+ (104) and 15th in wOBA (.321) against right-handed pitchers. Though they walk at the highest rate (10.8%) in that split, their 22.3% strikeout rate is something Rodriguez can take advantage of.

numberFire projects Rodriguez for 25.2 Fanduel points tonight. Having eclipsed that in each of his previous four starts, he makes for a strong value play on a slate short on them.

Honorable Mentions

Yu Darvish ($9,700) and Max Scherzer ($10,500) carry the two highest projections on numberFire tonight at 35.8 and 33.2, respectively. Darvish is too inconsistent for my liking, especially at that salary and against the Orioles. Scherzer isn't nearly as inconsistent, but given his salary and matchup with the Angels, I much prefer to allocate my funds toward the other pitchers above $10,000.

The same logic with Scherzer applies to Max Fried ($10,600) -- though I feel Fried will be the name I most regret leaving off this list. He's been stellar since returning from a months-long absence (3.60 ERA and .243 wOBA allowed), but at his salary, I prefer Glasnow. The New York Yankees have quietly recorded the ninth-highest wOBA (.346) and the sixth-highest ISO (.203) against lefties since the All-Star break.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.