FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13 Thursday Night (Seahawks at Cowboys)

Sitting atop our latest power rankings, the Dallas Cowboys are expected to take care of business in convincing fashion against the Seattle Seahawks. Going by the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Dallas is an 8.5-point home favorite, and the over/under is set at 47.5.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

It makes sense to begin with the heavily favored side of this matchup, where we find Dak Prescott ($17,500), CeeDee Lamb ($16,000), and Tony Pollard ($14,500) as the Cowboys' top MVP options. They're three of the four highest-projected players in numberFire's model on Thursday.

Following a sluggish start to his campaign, Prescott has been on a tear since mid-October, racking up FanDuel scores of 24.88, 29.06, 28.36, 38.86, 16.16, and 32.24 points over his last six. He's accounted for multiple touchdowns in every game during this stretch and exceeded 300 passing yards four times.

Overall, Prescott is now the QB3 in FanDuel points per game (21.1). His 0.19 Expected Points Added per drop back ranks second among starting quarterbacks. There might not be a hotter signal-caller in the NFL right now, and he tops numberFire's projections by a sizable margin.

Dak will be popular, though, so we can also look to his No. 1 wideout at what should be a much more palatable MVP roster percentage.

Dating back to Week 6, Lamb has recorded a 30.8% target share, 39.1% air yards share, 34.2% red zone share, and 36.4% end zone share. Over this span, he's averaged 11.5 targets, 8.5 receptions, 118.0 receiving yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game, and he's blown up for 30-plus FanDuel points twice. Against WRs, Seattle ranks 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed per target, so it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see Lamb post another lofty score.

Pollard has mostly disappointed in fantasy football this season, but his workload has remained pretty consistent throughout. He's averaged 14.5 carries and 4.2 targets per game with a 69.9% snap rate. Although he has just four rushing scores this year, he's averaged 3.6 red-zone carries per game in this proficient offense, which is the league's fourth-best mark. In perhaps a sign of things to come, he's found the end zone twice in each of the last two games.

While Pollard hasn't been putting up the slate-breaking numbers of his previously mentioned teammates, this is the right matchup for him to bust out. In addition to a likely positive game script, Seattle is just 24th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics, and they've coughed up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to RBs.

Hopping over to the Seahawks, Geno Smith ($14,000) is tied with Lamb for the slate's second-best projection, but he's harder to get excited about at MVP.

Smith has exceeded 20 FanDuel points twice all season, one of which came way back in Week 2. The only other time came in Week 10 against a Washington Commanders team that's 32nd in schedule-adjusted pass defense. That doesn't bold well for Geno versus the NFL's third-best adjusted pass defense.

But if we're taking a glass-half-full approach, Smith is off the injury report and reportedly much healthier going into this game compared to last week's ugly Thanksgiving day loss to the San Francisco 49ers. And despite this tough matchup, we could always see his final stat line padded in garbage time if this ends up being a lopsided Cowboys win. I'm also guessing he ends up with a relatively low MVP roster percentage for a QB.

D.K. Metcalf ($12,000) and Tyler Lockett ($11,000) are other players projected for double-digit points, and running back Zach Charbonnet ($11,500) joins them with Kenneth Walker III listed as doubtful to play.

After generally splitting usage down the middle in past seasons, Metcalf now has the more appealing role in this passing attack over Lockett. In 10 games together this year, Metcalf has the edge on all of target share (24.8% to 22.7%), air yards share (44.8% to 32.1%), red zone share (37.5% to 27.5%), and end zone share (46.2% to 38.5%). This is a difficult spot for both wide receivers, though, as Dallas has given up the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to the position.

Over the past two weeks with Walker hobbled/out, Charbonnet has played 85.5% of the snaps while averaging 14.5 carries and 5.0 targets. It hasn't amounted to huge fantasy numbers, and this probably isn't the game script or opponent to change that -- but volume like that will always put someone in play at MVP.

Flex Breakdown

Of the remaining Cowboys, Brandin Cooks ($10,500) and Jake Ferguson ($9,000) are easy to like as flex options.

At his salary, Cooks has an unexciting 13.5% target share this season, but he's firmly entrenched as the No. 2 wide receiver, most recently logging an 80.0% snap rate and 84.4% route participation rate on Thanksgiving. numberFire's model projects him for roughly five targets, and while he generally needs a touchdown to post a viable fantasy score, he did go nuts for nine catches and 173 yards a few weeks back.

Ferguson is one of the better values on the board. The tight end has the team's second-best target share (15.1%) and leads the team in red zone target share (26.1%). Averaging just 38.3 receiving yards per game, he's even more touchdown-dependent than Cooks, but his role near the goal line helps, and the $1,500 gap in salary between the two isn't insignificant.

Dallas wideouts Michael Gallup ($7,500) and Jalen Tolbert ($7,000) are longshot plays, as neither one is likely to play over half the snaps. Since the Week 7 bye, Gallup's role has taken a huge hit, and he now finds himself in a rotation with Tolbert as the third wide receiver. Over the last five, Tolbert has held the slight edge in target share (9.8% to 7.2%). Given that Tolbert is the one seemingly on the rise -- and has the slightly lower salary -- he feels like the better target.

Backup running back Rico Dowdle ($7,500) probably needs a blowout scenario to see enough work to be a factor. He's projected for under double-digit opportunities.

On Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,000) is a solid value play. As their No. 3 wide receiver, he's put up a 16.3% target share, 62.5% snap rate, and 73.3% route rate. A 12.3% air yards share tends to limit his upside, but his projection isn't all that different from Cooks and Ferguson on the other side, and he has the lowest salary of the trio.

The Seahawks have a three-man rotation at tight end, which means we can mostly ignore the position. If you're taking a stab, Noah Fant ($7,000) played the most snaps (59.3%) and ran the most routes (60.6%) in Week 12.

Lastly, given the Cowboys' status as a big home favorite, it boosts the prospects of kicker Brandon Aubrey ($9,500) and the Dallas D/ST ($10,000). Aubrey hasn't had more than two field goal attempts since Week 4, but he hasn't missed a field goal all season, and kicking in a dome always helps. The Cowboys have been this year's top fantasy defense, and Geno Smith was sacked six times last week versus the 49ers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.