FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 13 Monday Night (Bengals at Jaguars)

Going by the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, we've got a low-scoring, one-sided affair on tap tonight. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9.5-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals, and the game has a 39.5-point over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Trevor Lawrence ($14,500) and Travis Etienne ($16,000) lead the way in numberFire's projections, which is of little surprise considering the lopsided spread.

While Lawrence hasn't made the leap many were hoping for in 2023, he's coming off his two best fantasy performances this season, tallying 32.18 and 25.56 FanDuel points. He's been aided by three rushing touchdowns over that stretch, but that isn't entirely a fluke given that two were nine- and five-yard scores, and he's always had some rushing ability dating back to his Clemson days.

Cincinnati ranks 22nd in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire, so this isn't a bad spot for Lawrence to add another strong outing. He figures to be the chalk MVP option.

Etienne is questionable but is expected to play. Although he's been relatively quiet over the last few weeks, it wasn't that long ago that he strung together four straight games with 20-plus points. Etienne has averaged 17.6 carries and 4.4 targets per game, and Jacksonville will happily lean on him if they get out to a big lead. The Bengals are 31st in adjusted rush defense.

Calvin Ridley ($12,500) and Christian Kirk ($11,500) don't possess the elite usage we typically want from an MVP-worthy wideout, but they're the top pass-catchers on a heavy home favorite.

Ridley's shown the higher ceiling of the two, scoring 19-plus points three times. While his 20.7% target share could be better, he otherwise has team-highs in air yards share (37.5%), red zone target share (34.3%), and end zone target share (52.2%).

Kirk has a team-best 22.8% target share alongside a solid 30.1% air yards share. Despite a lack of ceiling games, he's projected for more targets and FanDuel points than Ridley.

On the Bengals, Jake Browning ($13,000), Joe Mixon ($13,500), and Ja'Marr Chase ($15,000) are the best MVP possibilities, though it's hard to get super stoked about anyone from a side with a 15.0-point implied team total.

In his first career start last week, Browning led this offense to just 10 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While this should be an easier matchup versus a middle-of-the-pack defense, his passing yards prop is set at an underwhelming 216.5. He shouldn't see a high MVP roster percentage for a QB, but it's also difficult to envision Browning coming away as the slate-high scorer.

Likewise, Mixon could be up against it in a likely negative game script, as he logged a mere 10 touches last week. But if this one stays close, he could get closer to the 14.6 carries and 3.6 targets he's averaged per game this season. Although Mixon doesn't tend to accumulate gaudy yardage numbers these days, he has an incredible 90.3% red zone rush share.

Of this Cincinnati trio, Chase is probably the one we can be most optimistic about. He saw a team-high six targets last week, which might not sound like much, but that was good for a 24.0% target share and 43.5% air yards share on a day where Browning attempted just 26 passes.

If the Bengals are to find any success tonight, it's likely via Chase. He's projected for easily the most targets on either team (9.5). The Jaguars have given up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to WRs, too.

Flex Breakdown

After Ridley and Kirk, Evan Engram ($10,000) and Zay Jones ($8,000) are the next-best Jacksonville pass-catchers.

Engram actually has the Jags' second-best target share (22.3%), but he tends to be a floor play due to low marks in air yards share (13.1%) and red zone share (11.4%).

Since returning in Week 11, Jones has seen a 65.7% snap rate and 10.3% target share. He's a touchdown-or-bust play at this point.

Following Jacksonville's Week 9 bye, D'Ernest Johnson ($8,500) seems to have passed Tank Bigsby ($8,000) as the No. 2 running back, playing 29.8% of the snaps compared to Bigsby's 11.0%. He's averaged just 5.7 carries and 1.7 targets over the three-game stretch, though, so he's just a dart throw.

Flipping back to the Bengals, Tee Higgins ($10,500) and Tyler Boyd ($8,500) are worth a look.

Higgins missed the last three games due to injury, so this will be his first game with Browning under center. He should still be the second option behind Chase and projects for the fifth-most targets on the board.

With Higgins back, Boyd's receiving yards prop is set at 29.5, which puts him in a similar boat as Zay Jones. We probably need him to luck into a touchdown to crack the optimal lineup.

No Bengals tight end plays over half the snaps, but if we're rolling the dice on one, it's Tanner Hudson ($7,500), who has the biggest role in the passing game. In Week 12, he logged a 40.0% route rate and was tied for second on the team with five targets. However, he's yet to reach 50 receiving yards in a game this season.

If it isn't abundantly clear already, we're hurting for value on this slate, so kickers Brandon McManus ($9,500) and Evan McPherson ($9,000) are firmly in the mix. The Jacksonville D/ST ($9,000) is also a strong play against a quarterback who could struggle in his second career start.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.