FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Thursday Night (Bengals at Ravens)

Week 11 opens with a pivotal matchup between AFC North rivals. The Baltimore Ravens are contending for the top seed in the AFC, while the Cincinnati Bengals continue to try and claw their way into the postseason picture following a slow start. The Ravens are 3.5-point home favorites, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, and the game has a 46.0-point over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

While Baltimore's strong overall play has vaulted Lamar Jackson ($17,000) into the real-life MVP conversation, the truth is that he's actually been quite underwhelming from a fantasy perspective lately. With the Ravens often relying on their defense and running game to win, Jackson has scored fewer than 20 FanDuel points in five of his last six games.

Yet, the lone exception during that stretch was a 33.88-point outburst in Week 7, and he scored 28-plus points twice early on in this campaign. He's still a lethal running threat, leading all QBs in rushing yards while averaging 9.2 carries and 48.1 yards per game. Jackson's five rushing scores are just two behind the league lead at the position.

According to numberFire's model, Jackson is projected for the most points of any player not only in this game but the entire week. He might be more boom-or-bust than we would like, and he'll undoubtedly be popular in the multiplier slot, but there's also no question that he's still the most probable candidate to lead this Thursday slate in scoring.

Following Lamer in the single-game projections are Bengals players Joe Burrow ($16,000), Ja'Marr Chase ($15,000), and Joe Mixon ($12,500). This is a rough matchup for this Cincinnati offense against a Baltimore team that ranks second in schedule-adjusted pass defense and eighth in adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics.

Clearly far healthier than he was to begin the season, Burrow has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games and cracked 300 passing yards three times over that span. He's scored 20-plus FanDuel points in four of those five weeks.

Given all that, he has a reasonable chance of exceeding the 16.38 FanDuel points he scored versus the Ravens when he was still less than 100% in Week 2, but it won't be an easy task against a Baltimore defense that's given up the fewest FanDuel points per game to QBs. The good news is that the Bengals rank first in pass rate over expectation, so Burrow should have volume working in his favor, and he's no stranger to logging 40-plus pass attempts.

Even with Chase dealing with a back issue last week, he still managed to catch 5-of-6 targets for 124 yards and a score with Tee Higgins out. Chase is no longer listed on the injury report, and Higgins has already been ruled out again, so the former could be in store for a monster workload despite the difficult matchup.

Overall, the Bengals' top wideout has recorded an elite 29.6% target share, 38.7% air yards share, 31.9% red zone share, and 34.8% end zone share this season. It probably can't hurt that Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey is doubtful to play, too.

Mixon is averaging a respectable 11.8 FanDuel points per game and generally hasn't gone too far above or below that throughout the season. As the unquestioned lead back, he's played 74.1% of the snaps while averaging 15.2 carries and 3.7 targets per game, and he's getting nearly every carry in the red zone (92.9%). He's cracked 100 yards from scrimmage once all year, which doesn't bode well against a tough defense, but multi-touchdown upside is still there with his stranglehold on red zone work.

Of the non-Lamar options for Baltimore, Mark Andrews ($13,000) remains a solid bet as a possible MVP. He has the team's best overall pass-catching role, coming in with a 23.0% target share, 21.1% air yards share, 36.1% red zone share, and 37.5% end zone share. Andrews has a pair of two-score games this year, and this isn't a bad spot for another ceiling game; Cincinnati has given up the second-most FanDuel points per game to TEs.

Flex Breakdown

The biggest wild card of the slate is very likely the Ravens' backfield, where we find Gus Edwards ($12,000), Keaton Mitchell ($8,500), and Justice Hill ($7,000) in a committee that could be in flux.

While Edwards should continue to see the majority of touches and play roughly half the snaps, Mitchell has emerged as a De'Von Achane-esque home run threat over the past couple of weeks, likely leapfrogging Hill as the No. 2 back. Head coach John Harbaugh has suggested he wants Mitchell to be more involved moving forward, and it's easy to see why after the rookie has accumulated 200 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns over the last two games off just 12 carries and 3 targets.

The upside is exciting, but that's still a meager two-week workload, and Mitchell played just 22.0% of the snaps in Week 10, lower than both Edwards (54.0%) and Hill (26.0%). Edwards is also the most likely candidate to get red zone looks with a whopping seven rushing touchdowns over the last four games.

Overall, Edwards is the safest play of the trio and is projected for roughly 12-13 opportunities in numberFire's model. He probably needs a touchdown to pay off his salary, though. Mitchell is a boom-or-bust play based on his low usage to this point, but his ceiling might even be worth a few swings at MVP in case his snaps take a significant jump. Hill is probably the odd man out and may only see significant work in a blowout scenario as we saw in Week 9.

Zay Flowers ($10,500), Odell Beckham ($8,000), and Rashod Bateman ($6,500) are Baltimore's top wide receivers.

Flowers sees similar usage to Mark Andrews with a 24.5% target share, 25.3% air yards share, and 24.4% red zone share -- except he's yet to see a single end zone target. He's scored just once all season. Beckham has the third-best target share (15.2%) and second-best end zone share (35.7%) this year, but he's played fewer than half the snaps over the past two games. On the other hand, Bateman seems to be trending upward after logging a season-high 74.0% snap rate last week. That said, he hasn't scored a touchdown or reached 40 receiving yards in a game in 2023.

On Cincinnati's side, Tyler Boyd ($10,000) is one of the bigger beneficiaries of Higgins' absence. Last week, he led the team in targets (12), helping him to season-bests in receptions (8), yards (117), and FanDuel points (15.7). That arguably puts him on the MVP radar, but with Chase at full strength this time around, he'll presumably come back to Earth a bit. numberFire's model projects him for about six targets, which is the fourth-most between both teams.

Trenton Irwin ($7,500) gets the biggest boost with Higgins inactive. In Week 10, Irwin played a season-high 80.0% of the snaps with an 84.1% route rate. While it led to just four targets, he scored his first touchdown of the year, leading to 12.4 FanDuel points. He's a rock-solid value play.

The Bengals have a three-man tight end rotation, but of the group, Tanner Hudson ($7,000) is the best candidate to contribute in the passing game. While he recorded a modest 28.3% snap rate last week, he was actually second on the team in targets (7).

Given the middle-of-the-road total and tighter spread, this is an average spot to roster a kicker. Kickers have been in 37% of single-game perfect lineups this season. The top-notch quarterbacks reduce the appeal of the team defenses, but the Baltimore D/ST ($9,500) has been one of the season's best, scoring double-digit FanDuel points six times.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.