FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 10 Sunday Night (Jets at Raiders)

There may not be a lot of points scored on this week's edition of Sunday Night Football, but we can adjust our expectations when building single-game daily fantasy football lineups.

The over/under for this game between the Raiders and Jets is 35.5 points, according to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Before we dig in more, don't forget to brush up on some single-game daily fantasy football strategy.

And just a reminder: numberFire has daily fantasy football projections for this slate specifically to help you with your lineup decisions.

Jets/Raiders Single-Game DFS Breakdown

Based on my single-game perfect lineup database, two notable trends stand out for a game with odds like this one (total of 38.5 or lower).

1. There's a pretty heavy trend toward running backs as far as perfect lineup MVPs go, and
2. 4-1 lineups are more common than 3-2 lineups, so picking a side to stack is more viable in a low-scoring game than over a full sample of games.

Let's put that into action.

Josh Jacobs ($16,000) and Breece Hall ($16,500) own sizable workloads.

Let's start with Jacobs, who has a 77.4% snap rate on the season and has run a route on 52.4% of the Raiders' drop backs. In total, he's averaging 83.1 scrimmage yards on 17.7 rushes and 4.8 targets per game.

The Jets do have top-five splits against running backs from an EPA (expected points added) per carry and rushing success rate standpoint, but Jacobs' role is good enough to have him be the top scorer even in a tough matchup. My simulation model gives him 24.2% odds to be the top scorer on the slate.

As for Breece Hall, the matchup is a lot nicer: Las Vegas is a bottom-five rush defense across all sorts of metrics and is letting up a rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry rate of +0.64, which is fourth-highest in the NFL entering Week 10. In three games since a role expansion, Hall has averaged 82.0 yards from scrimmage on 13.3 carries and 6.0 targets per game with a 64.6% snap rate. He also has seen every red zone carry in that split. Hall's top-scorer odds are 23.9% in my model.

Before we move to pass-catchers, let's look at the QBs, who are often targets in single-game lineups but who may be hard to justify in a low-scoring game. QBs in games with low totals see a sizable downgrade in MVP rate because there just aren't enough points to go around if the game plays true to the total.

The projections for Zach Wilson ($11,000) and Aidan O'Connell ($12,000) are about as low as they get for quarterbacks. Wilson's 14.3% top-scorer odds are noticeably better than those of O'Connell's (8.4%) for me, and Wilson's got 55.5% top-five scorer odds; O'Connell's number there is 42.1%. They're still viable plays -- just not elite MVP plays.

Let's dig into the Raiders' pass-catchers.

In two games started by O'Connell, Davante Adams ($14,000) easily leads the team in target share (32.3%). Jacobs is a distant second at 17.7%. Jakobi Meyers ($12,500; 14.5%), Hunter Renfrow ($7,500; 11.3%), and Ameer Abdullah ($6,000; 6.5%) are next in line.

Adams and Meyers own 90.1% route rates in this two-game split; nobody else is above 50.0%. Renfrow (49.3%), Austin Hooper ($6,500; 47.9%), Jacobs (46.5%), and Michael Mayer ($7,000; 40.8%) are running moderate routes in the split with Mayer actually third in Week 9 with a 56.0% route rate. It's not ideal, but we have sprinkle options in addition to Adams as a primary play.

For the Jets, Garrett Wilson ($13,000) has a 31.7% target share in two post-bye games and has averaged 90.0 yards in those two contests. Like with the Raiders, there's a big fall off to anyone else. Breece Hall is actually second in target share in this split at 15.9%, followed by Allen Lazard ($8,500; 14.6%), Tyler Conklin ($7,500; 9.8%), Michael Carter ($6,000; 8.5%), and C.J. Uzomah ($5,500; 7.3%).

Wilson's top-scorer odds are 8.4% in my model with Adams' at 6.7%.

Final Thoughts

Historically -- and based on how this game projects out -- the running backs should be primary targets in the MVP slot. Adams and Wilson are great MVP pivots in case they score the few touchdowns there are to be had.

Kickers and defenses are found in similar games' perfect lineups at a pretty high rate compared to the average, so rounding teams out with them makes sense, especially given the dispersed target shares for all of the pass-catchers.

The tertiary and quaternary pass-catchers can work in QB-centric builds or to round out 4-1 onslaught lineups in case one team takes control of this game.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.