FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 12/27/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Tyrese Maxey ($8,400) -- Tyrese Maxey faceplanted sans Joel Embiid on Christmas, shooting a miserable 4 for 20 from the field. I hope that dud keeps some people away today (it probably won't), because Maxey is in a smash spot with Embiid out once more. While the Orlando Magic are good on D, they're on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Maxey should see plenty of usage as he owns a 33.5% usage rate this year with Embiid off the floor, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.

De'Anthony Melton ($6,400) -- De'Anthony Melton is another way to take advantage of Embiid's absence. With Embiid off the court this year, Melton's usage rate jumps by 6.8 percentage points, tied with Maxey for the biggest increase on the team. Melton went for 45.9 FanDuel points on Christmas, ensuring he'll garner attention today.

Dennis Schroder ($6,100) -- I want pieces of the Toronto Raptors today in their clash with the Washington Wizards. The Raps carry a slate-best 123.0-point implied total, and the blowout risk isn't too bad with Toronto a 7.0-point favorite. Washington (first in pace) is a big-time pace-up spot for Toronto (20th), and the Wiz are giving up the third-most FanDuel points per night to PGs (52.7).

Others to Consider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,500) -- One of the best fantasy environments of the main slate is the Oklahoma City Thunder-New York Knicks affair, a game with a 239.5-point total and 3.5-point spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can blow up in this spot, and he might slip through the cracks a bit depending on which other high-salary guards wind up playing today.

Jalen Brunson ($8,800) -- A Jalen Brunson-SGA stack is a high-upside way to load up on the OKC-Knicks matchup. The Thunder (6th in pace) are a massive pace-up foe for the Knicks (27th). Oklahoma City has struggled defending point guards, too, surrending the seventh-most FanDuel points per night to the position over the last 15 games (53.6).

Wings

Top Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100) -- Giannis Antetokounmpo can cook a short-handed Brooklyn Nets team that is on the second-leg of a back-to-back. The Nets aren't that good defensively when they're at full strength, ranking 21st in defensive rating, and they'll be without Nicolas Claxton. With Brooklyn missing its rim protector, Giannis should face very little resistance, and the spread is only 6.5 points, meaning he should get his full minutes.

Scottie Barnes ($9,800) -- Another Raptor, and he won't be the last. Scottie Barnes has topped 50.5 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. Washington is last in defensive rating and plays at the NBA's fastest pace. They also permit the most FanDuel points per game to small forwards (50.1). It's all systems go for Barnes.

Mikal Bridges ($7,500) and Cam Thomas ($7,200) -- Claxton is far from the only Net out as Spencer Dinwiddie and Cameron Johnson are also sitting. A lot of the offense will likely go through Mikal Bridges and Cameron Thomas, who hold usage rates of 27.7% and 38.6%, respectively, in tonight's current floor condition, although the sample is less than 100 minutes. If the Nets keep it competitive, these two will probably be a big reason why. And don't sleep on Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,000) and Royce O'Neale ($5,200).

Others to Consider

Kyle Kuzma ($7,800) -- Kyle Kuzma looks like the best bring-back piece to Toronto stacks if you get multiple Raptors. Kuzma boasts a 31.3% usage rate for the season, and Toronto has allowed 51.8 FanDuel points per night to PFs, the fifth-most. Kuzma is coming off back-to-back underwhelming outings, but he dropped 50.6 FanDuel points the game before those two.

Tobias Harris ($7,000) -- Tobias Harris has recorded 45.4 and 54.1 FanDuel points the last two games, with the 45.4-point game coming without Embiid. That'll likely make Harris a popular play tonight, and numberFire's projections justify it, forecasting Harris for 36.0 FanDuel points (5.14 per $1,000). If Harris is going to be mega chalk, I might look elsewhere. Orlando has been a really difficult matchup for small forwards and power forwards.

Bigs

Top Plays

Pascal Siakam ($8,600) -- I really like the idea of using Schroder, Kuzma and one of Barnes/Pascal Siakam as a way to stack the Toronto-Washington game. numberFire's model is high on Siakam, projecting him for 44.0 FanDuel points (5.12 per $1,000). As we've already laid out, the Wizards are about as good of a matchup as there is.

Paul Reed ($5,300) -- Paul Reed busted as a chalk play on Christmas, struggling with foul trouble. I'm not super high on him today, especially since he's eligible at only center, but he's obviously a quality value option with Embiid out. For the campaign, he's averaged 36.8 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Embiid off the floor, although his usage rate in the split is just 15.1%.

Day'Ron Sharpe ($5,100) -- Assuming Day'Ron Sharpe starts, I might prefer him over Reed. In a 155-minute sample in tonight's current floor condition for Brooklyn, Sharpe has generated 44.7 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. He put up 45.7 FanDuel points in just 21 minutes off the bench last night. We can't expect that kind of per-minute output, but Sharpe has a lot of upside tonight.

Others to Consider

Alperen Sengun ($8,700) -- With the value we have at center, Alperen Sengun should go overlooked today, and the Houston Rockets-Phoenix Suns game holding the slate's lowest over/under (224.5) should only help in that regard. That makes Sengun a fun GPP pivot. He's been on a heater of late, going for 64.7 and 63.2 FanDuel points in his last two outings.

Julius Randle ($8,500) -- In a pace-up matchup against OKC, Julius Randle is projecting well, with numberFire's model putting him at 42.4 FanDuel points (4.99 per $1,000). Randle has played at least 33 minutes in four straight games, logging at least 40 minutes twice in that stretch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.