FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Wednesday 1/24/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

LaMelo Ball ($9,800) -- With Terry Rozier (trade) out of the picture, the sky's the limit for LaMelo Ball. According to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, LaMelo's averaged 54.2 FanDuel points (FPs) and a 34.2% usage rate in nine games sans Rozier this season. That sample makes tonight's matchup with the Detroit Pistons downright mouth-watering. Detroit is 29th in defensive rating, sixth in pace, and gives up the most FPs per game to opposing PGs, per FantasyPros. Ball can break the slate.

Bradley Beal ($7,100) -- Shooting guard is pretty light today, but Bradley Beal has the game enviroment and matchup to thrive as a mid-range option. The Phoenix Suns have the highest implied total (121.5), and their matchup with the Dallas Mavericks has the highest over/under (240.5) of the slate. Beal's been held under 40 FPs in five straight, but he continues to flirt with 40 minutes a night. That bodes well for his fantasy outlook, especially considering Dallas has given up the fourth-most FPs to opposing SGs. numberFire projects Beal for 35.7 FPs tonight, making him the model's fourth-best point-per-dollar value (as of Wednesday afternoon).

Mike Conley ($5,900) -- We want to target guards facing the Washington Wizards, so Mike Conley profiles as a quality value option. Wizards' matchups lend themselves to fantasy production -- they're 28th in defensive rating, first in pace, and give up the second-most FPs to PGs. Assuming the Minnesota Timberwolves live up to their 120.25 implied total, Conley should thrive. In eight games where the Wolves scored 120 points, Conley averaged 25 FPs. He did miss shootaround due to an illness, so we can pivot to Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,900) if Conley sits. Alexander-Walker played 30 minutes and racked up 23 FPs with Conley out on Monday.

Others to Consider

Luka Doncic ($12,200) -- There are several strong guard options tonight, and Luka Doncic's salary makes things tough, but there's certainly an argument to build around him. Doncic is fresh off a pair of 70-FP triple-doubles, and he now faces a Suns team he put 96.7 FPs on just last month. Luka and Kyrie Irving are both questionable, so either would become my top guard if the other were to miss. Both average over 50 FPs with a usage rate north of 32% when the other sits.

Amen Thompson ($6,600) -- If Jalen Green (questionable) can't go tonight, Amen Thompson becomes a high-upside mid-range play. Thompson made his first NBA start with Fred VanVleet out on Monday, posting a 15-point, 14-rebound double-double against the mighty Boston Celtics. Notching 40.3 FPs in the process, Thompson has now cleared 30 FPs in three of his last five games. His arrow is firmly pointed up, and a matchup with a Portland Trail Blazers defense that allows the second-most FPs to SGs further bolsters his case tonight. Along those lines, I don't mind Dillon Brooks ($5,500), either. He's played over 35 minutes in three straight and is coming off a 40-FP outing of his own.

Nick Smith ($3,800) -- LaMelo's usage will be the talk of the town following the Terry Rozier trade, but keep an eye on Nick Smith Jr.. The rookie first-rounder has hovered in the 15–20 minute range for over a month, but he projects to take on a larger role now. numberFire projects him to play 24 minutes and rack up 19.5 FPs in this Charmin ultra soft matchup with Washington. At a $3,800 salary, Smith is the model's top point-per-dollar value on the slate.

Wings

Top Plays

Anthony Edwards ($8,800) -- Something tells me the Wolves aren't going to force-feed Karl-Anthony Towns 35 shots again, so I like Anthony Edwards to bounce back here. ANT has had a rough go of late, scoring just 27.5 and 30.5 FPs in the last two games. Thankfully for him, a visit to Washington is the perfect antidote for a cold spell. The Wizards have given up the most FPs to both SG and SF this season. Edwards has averaged 44.1 FPs against bottom-five fantasy wing defenses, and two of his three highest-scoring games of the year came in such matchups. ANT oozes upside tonight.

Miles Bridges ($8,000) -- Miles Bridges' salary crept up to $8K in the wake of the Terry Rozier trade, but don't let that scare you off him. In six previous games without Rozier, Bridges averaged 41.6 FPs and posted a 23.1% usage rate. That's more than enough to warrant a roster spot tonight considering the Pistons give up the seventh-most FPs to opposing SFs. That puts Brandon Miller ($6,700) on my radar, as well. He's scored at least 36 FPs in three straight games.

Grayson Allen ($6,000) -- Grayson Allen's salary is climbing, but I can still get to him here given the favorable game environment and his recent play. Allen has cooled off since dropping 54 FPs four games ago, but he's still a consistent 20-FP per game contributor. With 30-plus minutes in 17 of his last 19 games, Allen should have plenty of chances to take advantage of Phoenix's slate-leading implied total. Aiding his cause: the Mavs are a top-five matchup for SGs and just 20th in defensive rating.

John Konchar ($4,800) -- The Memphis Grizzlies' injury-barren roster has opened the door for both John Konchar and Luke Kennard ($5,700) to produce in fantasy. Konchar made his third straight start earlier this week, finishing with 32 FPs in 28 minutes. Kennard, meanwhile, has been quietly producing for weeks now, and he's notched 20-plus FPs in six straight games. A matchup with the Miami Heat is less than ideal, but I'm fine rostering one of the two. They're great salary-savers.

Others to Consider

Saving salary at wing can be as simple as targeting strong three-point shooters in good matchups. Here are a few to consider.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,400) -- Bojan Bogdanovic is averaging 3.3 triples per game in January; the Hornets are 29th in three-point defense (41.2%) over that span.

Max Strus ($5,700) -- numberFire projects Max Strus for 3.0 threes tonight. The Milwaukee Bucks are 17th in three-pointers allowed this month (13.6 per game).

Jaden McDaniels ($5,200) -- Jaden McDaniels has hit multiple threes in four of his last five; Washington is 24th in three-point defense this month (39.3%).

Duncan Robinson ($5,100) -- Duncan Robinson nailed at least three triples in six of 11 January contests. Memphis is 27th in three-point defense (38.5%).

Malik Beasley ($4,700) -- Malik Beasley attempted eight threes in his last game, and he drained five when they last faced the Cleveland Cavaliers with a full roster. numberFire projects him for 3.1 made three-pointers.

Bigs

Top Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100) -- Milwaukee got run out of town when they faced Cleveland last week, but Giannis Antetokounmpo was notably absent. He went for 34 points, 16 rebounds, and 60.7 FPs when they matched up in December -- a final total he can easily reach tonight. Giannis carries numberFire's highest projection (61.2), making him the third-best point-per-dollar value on the board. A 236.5 over/under hints at plenty of offense here.

Isaiah Stewert ($6,100) -- Detroit's backcourt is a cluster right now, but there's fantasy value with both Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren ($7,200) down low. Since parting ways with Marvin Bagley III earlier this month, both Stewert (38.9 FP; 21.5% usage) and Duren (33.2 FP; 19.3% usage) have been productive in their 30 minutes a night. They make sense as a game stack opposite Charlotte's guards, as the Hornets give up the fourth-most FPs to both PF and C. Stewert's salary and dual-position eligibility gives him a slight edge for me, but both are viable.

Xavier Tillman ($5,900) -- Xavier Tillman is in line to start with Santi Aldama out tonight. Although the Heat are among the five worst fantasy matchups for centers, Tillman has been incredibly productive with Aldama out. In 10 such contests, he's averaged 30.4 FPs and 27.4 minutes per game. His 27.2-FP numberFire projection is the highest among centers with a sub-$6,000 salary.

Others to Consider

Alperen Sengun ($9,400) -- Alperen Sengun is on the short list of players who wouldn't shock me if they scored 60 FPs tonight. He's that good. The Houston Rockets' versatile big man is running hot right now, scoring 67.8 and 50.4 FPs in his last two games -- the latter of which came via a triple-double. Sengun could very well stay hot tonight, as the Blazers are bottom-10 in rebound rate and give up the third-most FPs to opposing Cs. He's my favorite pivot off Giannis.

Georges Niang ($4,700) -- Georges Niang won't go 13 for 14 against the Bucks again, but he's still plenty valuable at this salary. The four-man has solid recent numbers -- even excluding his 41-FP effort last week, he's averaged 21.3 FPs over the last seven games. A coaching change won't fix Milwaukee this quickly, so we can confidently target a 21st-rated defense that's given up the ninth-most FPs to PFs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.