FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 12/26/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Fred VanVleet ($8,800) -- Fred VanVleet is the latest point guard that gets to enter the Indiana Pacers' twilight zone. Indiana's league-best pace factor comes with the NBA's third-worst defensive rating (121.2), so let the points fly. It also helps VanVleet's case that he's in a playoff-level role, eclipsing 36 minutes in 10 of his last 11 contests. numberFire's projections are shining on the Houston Rockets' guard, tabbing him for 41.9 FanDuel points (FDP) at the median this evening.

Dejounte Murray ($8,000) -- The value behind Dejounte Murray could grow considerably this evening. Trae Young (shoulder) is a fairly ambiguous question mark for tonight's game against the Chicago Bulls. His absence would lead to an even larger projection from nF than the decent amount of FD points (37.7) for the salary as is; Murray sees a massive uptick in usage rate (+3.0 percentage points) and FDP per 36 minutes (+3.2) with Young off the floor, per RotoGrinders' Court IQ.

Devin Vassell ($6,400) -- NBA daily fantasy isn't always linear, and that's shown when being forced toward the San Antonio Spurs' rotation tonight. Anything and everything we know can change on Gregg Popovich's latest whim, but Devin Vassell started and logged 30 minutes with Victor Wembanyama (ankle) out in their last contest. Despite rough 3-for-13 shooting in that one, Vassell should generally produce with that the case, averaging 37.7 FDP per 36 minutes when Wemby is off the floor.

Others to Consider

Mike Conley ($6,000) -- Another key injury on this slate is Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves. He's questionable with a knee issue, and a missed start would lead to plenty of shots up for grabs from their side against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Though not intuitive, Mike Conley averages 34.8 FDP per 36 minutes with KAT off the floor, and OKC allows the ninth-most FDP per game to point guards (50.6). He's among the beneficiaries should news break that way.

Alex Caruso ($5,300) -- Per the NBA odds at FanDuel, the Hawks-Bulls clash should be a barnburner (233.5 projected points) compared to Chicago's usual low-scoring affairs. That uptick in pace factor affects most of the Bulls' key pieces, and Alex Caruso has become one of them after topping 28 minutes in three of his last four games. "The Carushow" is easily the best sub-$6,000 play at guard on the slate until we get more clarity on some of these injuries.

Wings

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600) -- It took a while for FanDuel's salary-makers to move this needle, but DeMar DeRozan has excelled for a while in Zach LaVine's absence. He's topped 40 FDP in 8 of his last 12 contests. Now, he might also be without star center Nikola Vucevic (adductor) for Tuesday's contest against the Hawks, who cede the seventh-most FDP per game to small forwards (43.1). He's my favorite high-salaried target on a slate where most of the league's best stars played yesterday on Christmas.

Mikal Bridges ($7,700) -- This blurb could have been as simple as "use a talented scorer against the awful Detroit Pistons", but there's also the 29 points, 7 assists, and 6 boards that Mikal Bridges just pasted on Detroit this Saturday. Detroit's 119.1 defensive rating is leaky enough for multiple big nights, but the question is if they can stay close enough, and oddsmakers are optimistic on Tuesday; the Motors are just 6.5-point home underdogs.

Deni Avdija ($5,400) -- The second-highest total (238.0) of the day is the Washington Wizards' home tilt with the Orlando Magic, and there is a case to target it. Both of these clubs are top seven in overall pace factor despite Orlando's stingy 110.5 defensive rating muting the output in the box score at times. Deni Avdija's lack of scoring punch (16.9% usage) makes him a flop in most blowouts, but just a 7.5-point spread implies Washington could keep this one tight enough for him to work.

Others to Consider

Keldon Johnson ($6,800) -- Keldon Johnson is a great example of how diabolical and mysterious Popovich can be. Returning from what seemed to be back maintenance, Johnson came off the bench and logged just 22 minutes. Not a soul seems to know if that was due to an injury-related minutes limit or a legitimate role change, but this is also the same guy who posted 28 points and 12 rebounds in Wembanyama's first absence this month. There's considerable risk -- but also reward -- with the talented wing.

Jalen Johnson ($5,600) -- Atlanta's wing tandem that gave us fits is back in full force with Jalen Johnson returning from a fractured wrist tonight. The upper-body injury inspires some hope he'll return to a full role, and if that's the case with Trae off the floor, Johnson (36.3 FDP per 36 minutes) has outperformed both Saddiq Bey (34.8) and De'Andre Hunter (31.3) with all three viable at their salaries. I'd stick to solely Johnson's reduced salary if Young suits up.

Bigs

Top Plays

Rudy Gobert ($8,400) -- This is an instance where Rudy Gobert's "process" upside might even be selling him short. Gobert has produced "just" 42.5 FDP per 36 minutes with Towns -- the other center -- off the floor this season, but he's also just been improving recently next to KAT, too. He's usurped 42 FDP in three of his last four games. OKC's defense is solid, but their high pace has still ceded the 10th-most FDP to opposing centers (55.4).

Nicolas Claxton ($7,200) -- There's usually a default square at the pivot, and it's Nicolas Claxton today. Claxton posted just 32.4 FDP in a reduced role (due to a blowout) in his last game against the Pistons, but centers continually crush Detroit given all the bigs they're forced to play on the other side. The Pistons have ceded the second-most FDP per game to opposing centers (60.7). Projected at 35.8 median FDP, Claxton is numberFire's top choice at center, as well.

Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,800) -- With each passing big man, we get a better matchup. The dreadful Wizards allow the very most FDP per game to centers (63.6), so we can forgive Wendell Carter Jr.'s so-so role to target him as a value play. Carter Jr. has concerningly played just 18.5 minutes per game in his last two, but small ball against the Pacers and 4-for-12 shooting likely had a hand in that. Starting with a chance for a hot start, WCJ could certainly push closer to 30 minutes with plenty of points and boards in such a forgiving spot.

Others to Consider

Zach Collins ($6,600) -- It's pretty automatic to look toward Zach Collins when Wembanyama sits. He's eclipsed 36 FDP in each of Wemby's last two games on the sidelines with far more room to roam on the glass. Thankfully, this elevated salary and quality alternatives will save us the 70% or so draft rate that Collins had a week ago against the Milwaukee Bucks, but he'll be equal parts popular and viable.

Andre Drummond ($5,700) -- Vucevic's injury is arguably the biggest news on the entire slate for this reason. While other absences would bump shots and volume to several, Andre Drummond would be unleashed into a role he's not salaried appropriately for. Drummond has posted 48.7 FDP per 36 minutes this year overall as a part-time player, but he'd bump closer to 30 minutes as a starter without Vuc. I won't be fading him if that's the case.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.