FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 1/23/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Jalen Brunson ($9,300) -- There are a number of strong guard options tonight, but Jalen Brunson takes the cake. Brunson is coming off a pair of monster efforts, going for 65.6 and 57.5 FanDuel points (FPs) in the last two games. Tonight, he draws the Brooklyn Nets, a team that's lost 10 of their last 12 games, ranking 23rd in defensive rating over that span. Per FantasyPros, Brooklyn's given up the third-most points and most threes to opposing PGs. That puts Brunson (26.5 points; 2.9 threes per game) in a great spot to produce.

D'Angelo Russell ($7,100) -- No LeBron James (ankle) for the Los Angeles Lakers. That opens the door for D'Angelo Russell to produce as a strong mid-range option. In four games without James, Russell has averaged 44.4 FanDuel points and a 26.1% usage rate, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. Although the Los Angeles Clippers have a top defense, Russell's scored 40 points against them across two matchups this season. He's flashed a nice ceiling, too, scoring over 50 FPs in two of his last five.

T.J. McConnell ($5,100) -- With Tyrese Haliburton (injury management) out tonight, we can usually turn to T.J. McConnell for low-salary production. He leads all active Pacers with 29.2 FPs in nine games without their star point guard. However, he was limited to just 11 minutes and 14.7 FPs in this same situation the last time out. It remains to be seen whether that's a trend or a one-off, but it's easy to roster him at this salary. numberFire projects McConnell for 25.1 minutes and 29.6 FPs tonight, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the board (as of Tuesday afternoon). Ben Sheppard ($3,900) is interesting in this same matchup given his miniscule salary. He's put up a pair of 20-FP games over the last four games, averaging 20.5 minutes a night.

Others to Consider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,900) -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the highest-salaried guard tonight, and he's one of only three healthy players with a five-figure salary. He has as much upside as anyone on a night-to-night basis, and there's a lot of room for production given the Oklahoma City Thunder's slate-leading 123.75 implied total. I'm a little concerned about his ceiling, though, considering they're 13.5-point favorites against the Portland Trail Blazers. SGA is averaging 55 FPs per game in double-digit victories, but he's been held to 37.6 and 44.0 FPs in two prior meetings with Portland -- OKC won those by 43 and 62, respectively.

James Harden ($8,200) -- James Harden's production wanes on such a star-studded roster, but he's coming off a 50-FP outing and has a nice matchup tonight. The Clippers have a clean 121.75 implied total against a Lakers team that's dropped to 18th in defensive rating but shot up to fifth in pace this month. Harden's 42-FP projection makes him the second-best point-per-dollar value among guards, according to numberFire's model. Russell Westbrook ($6,700) is an option here, too. He notched 40 FPs in two of his last three games but had previously been held under 30 in eight straight. Still, the Clippers' perimeter players are set up well tonight -- the Lakers are bottom-10 in FPs allowed to both guards spot.

Josh Giddey ($6,500) -- Though I have concerns about SGA's upside in a potential blowout, a lopsided finish could actually aid Josh Giddey. Giddey's averaged 31.3 FPs in games the Thunder won by 10 or more points, and five of his six highest-scoring games of the season came in such games. Portland's given up the third-most FPs to SGs, so OKC has multiple fantasy-relevant wings to consider. I have a hard time getting up to Jalen Williams ($7,900), but Luguentz Dort ($5,000) is sneaky. He exceeded 20 FPs in four of his last five games and averaged 27.5 FPs in their last six double-digit victories.

Wings

Top Plays

Paul George ($8,300) -- I'm leaning into saving salary at wing tonight, allocating most of my cap to guard and big. Still, we can look to both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard ($8,600) at reasonable salaries relative to their upside. The Lakers have struggled defensively of late, and they've given up the ninth-most FPs to SFs over their last 15 games. I slightly lean George between the two. Both are coming off quiet nights, but PG-13 went for 62.9 FPs just two games back, and he carries a lower salary.

Buddy Hield ($6,300) -- The Pacers may be shopping Buddy Hield, but the vet is certainly playing like someone who wants to stay put. Over his last three games, Hield averaged 35.3 FPs per game. He exceeded 30 minutes in all three outings and lines up for another nice workload with Haliburton out. Indy isn't short on capable wings, so Bennedict Mathurin ($5,000) and Aaron Nesmith ($4,900) have some appeal, too. Nesmith's been held under 20 FPs in four straight, but he's remained in the starting lineup, even with Pascal Siakam in town. Mathurin's been even colder, and his minutes have dipped to 23 and 14 in the first two games with Siakam.

Herbert Jones ($4,900) -- While Herbert Jones has been quiet over his last three games, his matchup is great tonight. Not only do the New Orleans Pelicans sport a 122.75 implied total, but they're up against a Utah Jazz team that's 21st in defensive rating, 10th in pace, and second worst in FPs allowed to SFs. Consequently, we can look at Trey Murphy III ($5,300), as well. Murphy (2.6 threes per game on 39% shooting) exceeded 20 FPs in five of his last six, and Utah's given up the third-most threes per game this season.

Others to Consider

Michael Porter Jr. ($6,900) -- Indiana has struggled against bigger wings all season, so Michael Porter Jr. is certainly in play tonight. Porter is the epitome of a boom-or-bust option. Over his last 10 games, he's been held under 25 FPs four times but exceeded 34 FPs thrice. The best of those recent outings came against these very Pacers. MPJ exploded for 50.1 FPs in that one, finishing with 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 threes. numberFire projects Porter for 3.2 made threes tonight, but his FanDuel Sportsbook line is set at 2.5.

Rui Hachimura ($4,500) -- One of the key aspects of tonight's slate will be figuring out which LA wing steps up with LeBron out. I'll offer up Rui Hachimura as the most cost-effective candidate. In four games without James, Rui's averaged 27.0 minutes and 26.2 FPs per game. Taurean Prince ($4,400) averaged 22.7 FPs and 33.0 minutes in those outings while Cam Reddish ($4,300) put up 20.9 FPs in 27.5 minutes. Personally, I think Rui is the most talented of the trio, and he notably exceeded a 22% usage rate in those games without LeBron -- neither Prince nor Reddish were over 15%. numberFire's model leans Hachimura, too, as his 22.9-FP projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value among SFs.

Bigs

Top Plays

Nikola Jokic ($12,100) -- After Joel Embiid's historic performance last night, it's hard not to get excited about Nikola Jokic against the Pacers. He cruised to 54.9 FPs when these teams met four games back but is coming off a 42-point, 12-rebound, 8-assist night that culminated in 80.4 FPs. That kind of upside is hard to match, and it's easy to envision a ceiling game tonight given this 237.5 over/under and Indiana's league-leading pace.

Zion Williamson ($7,700) -- Zion Williamson continues to stick out at salary, but his recent performances have lacked a certain oomph. It's not like Zion's been bad -- he's exceeded 30 FPs in five straight -- rather, he's lacked the slate-winning upside you're swinging for with mid-range plays. Still, I'm bullish he's due for a ceiling game tonight. The Jazz play at a top-10 pace, and they've let up the second-most FPs to opposing PFs. He's already gone for 40 twice against Utah, so there's plenty of room for optimism.

Precious Achiuwa ($5,500) -- Isaiah Hartenstein (Achilles) is trending down tonight, opening the door for Precious Achiuwa to build off his most recent performance. The last time out, Achiuwa went for 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 31.2 FPs in 24 minutes. All of those were his highest totals since joining the New York Knicks. Despite Achiuwa's big night, Jericho Sims ($3,600) is reportedly in line to start if Hartenstein is ruled out. We don't have much of a reference point for Sims this season -- he's only appeared in 19 games this season, though he did start five straight in December. Over that stretch, he exceeded 10 FPs just once and saw only 20 minutes one time. I'd lean Achiuwa, but Sims' puny salary opens up some interesting lineup possibilities if you're willing to take a leap of faith.

Others to Consider

Anthony Davis ($11,400) -- As much as I love Jokic tonight, I want exposure to Anthony Davis without LeBron. In four prior games sans James, Davis averaged 59.1 FPs and saw a 30.7% usage rate. Davis went for 58.5 and 44.5 FPs in two prior matchups with the Clippers, but they've since lost starting center Ivica Zubac to an injury. In three games since, opposing centers have gone for 47.6, 23.5, and 36.7 FPs. If you're having trouble fitting AD's salary into lineups, Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,300) figures to be popular in optimizers, and I'd expect him to get a lot of run tonight given his defensive skillset. Vanderbilt averaged fewer than 10 FPs in three prior outings sans LeBron, but he's played more lately, exceeding 20 minutes in four of the last six games. His 24.2-FP numberFire projection makes him the top point-per-dollar value among PFs.

John Collins ($6,000) -- John Collins makes for a quality salary-saver at either big man spot tonight. While his production fluctuates, the playing time has been consistent, as he's seen at least 20 minutes in 15 of their last 18 games. The matchup is pretty nice here because the Pelicans have let up the 10th-most FPs to opposing centers. A slate-high 240 over/under hints at plenty of offense, too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.