FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 12/21/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

As a note, for unknown reasons, tonight's game between the Washington Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers is not on the main slate. Let's dive into today's other seven games on FanDuel's main ledger.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Ja Morant ($9,800) -- I am envious of Ja Morant's season-long managers. Morant came off the shelf with 57.2 FanDuel points (FDP) on Tuesday, and he's now got the best fantasy matchup in the sport facing the Indiana Pacers. They hold the league's second-best pace factor (105.0) and third-worst defensive rating (121.2). Ja's 39.5% usage rate was Joel Embiid-esque and makes sense to stick moving forward given a weak Memphis Grizzlies scoring attack that went 6-19 without him.

Russell Westbrook ($6,300) -- Sometimes being a fan can help. Following my Los Angeles Clippers closely, today could very much be an "empty the cupboard" type of day despite a nine-game winning streak. Paul George (illness) missed Wednesday's game, and both Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell left last night's contest a bit banged up. On a back-to-back, maintenance days could mean a big night for Russell Westbrook, who has averaged 40.4 FDP per 36 minutes with Kawhi and P.G. off the floor this season.

Craig Porter Jr. ($4,600) -- In addition to Darius Garland's prolonged absence, the Cleveland Cavaliers sat Donovan Mitchell (illness) last night. On a back-to-back, Mitchell is certainly no guarantee to return for tonight's game. Sam Merrill ($4,100) dropped 27 off the bench last night, but Craig Porter Jr. started, played 25 minutes, and has been a consistently more productive player (37.9 FDP per 36) all season. I'll mix and match both as value plays while hoping CPJ's tough shooting night (2-for-7) reduces his popularity.

Others to Consider

Jaden Ivey ($5,100) -- The Detroit Pistons are just slight underdogs at home against the equally impotent Utah Jazz, who lost to Cleveland sans Mitchell last night. With a rare competitive game on deck, Jaden Ivey makes a ton of sense as a value pick. He's topped 28 minutes in each of Detroit's last three, eclipsing 25 FDP in two of those. The 236.5-point total in this one is one we'll want to target, and scorers like Ivey and Cade Cunningham ($8,500) are the obvious favorites to produce some offense for the Motors.

Tre Jones ($4,200) -- As if we didn't have enough injury news, the San Antonio Spurs are likely missing some top talent, too. In addition to Victor Wembanyama (ankle) missing Tuesday's tilt, the team now has Devin Vassell (illness) joining him as questionable. San Antonio is actually punching at their weight class with the lowly Chicago Bulls on the other side, and expect plenty of Tre Jones if both of those guys end up sitting. He's posted 35.8 FDP per 36 minutes behind a 20.2% usage rate with the pair off the floor.

Wings

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan ($8,100) -- I forgot DeMar DeRozan was a member of the Spurs at one point even before highlighting him in today's player pool. We'll add a revenge narrative to a sublime matchup; San Antonio is allowing the very most FDP per game to opposing shooting guards (45.6). DDR has continued to crush it in Zach LaVine's stead, topping 50 FDP in three of his last six games. Outside of a blowout, there are few reasons to believe he couldn't get there today.

Buddy Hield ($5,500) -- While nothing is ever "safe" in the Pacers' rotation, there appears to be growing steam that Buddy Hield deserves the chance to play through struggles like Indiana's other top players do. He logged 30 minutes on Monday in a blowout loss, and he logged 26 minutes in a win over the Charlotte Hornets yesterday that was thoroughly decided in three quarters. Hield is a useful value plug in a Grizzlies-Pacers affair that deserves plenty of love.

Jaden McDaniels ($5,000) -- The Minnesota Timberwolves took it easy with Jaden McDaniels returning from injury, but the lockdown defender is now all the way back after logging 37 minutes last night in Philadelphia. McDaniels (24.4 FDP per 36 minutes) is never the most voluminous scorer on the T-Wolves, but only one small forward (Hield) has a value score above 5.00 in numberFire's projections today. At this moment, value is light, and McDaniels will be on the court plenty with upside for stocks (steals plus blocks).

Others to Consider

Lauri Markkanen ($8,200) -- I'm not afraid of the studs in Jazz-Pistons whatsoever. It's a one-point spread with a massive total, and both clubs are bottom six in defensive rating. If these were any other offenses, we'd be all over this one. With Jordan Clarkson and Keyonte George appearing set to miss another game on the back-to-back, Markkanen has posted 46.7 FDP per 36 without his top-two point guards on the floor. He and DeRozan are the 1A/1B small forwards on the slate.

Franz Wagner ($7,200) -- It's interesting that the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks' affair has such a low total (236.5 points) for two top-10 teams in terms of pace, but a lot of that could have to do with Giannis Antetokounmpo's ankle injury. If he doesn't play, Milwaukee value will be plentiful, and Franz Wagner is a do-it-all ace that can be the lead choice for a bring-back option. Wagner's incredible floor has been on display, topping 32 FDP in 14 of his last 15 games.

Bigs

Top Plays

Myles Turner ($7,400) -- Memphis doesn't allow a ton of FDP per game to opposing centers (53.3; 11th-fewest in the NBA), but Jonas Valanciunas carved them up for 22 points and 14 rebounds on Tuesday, so it can't be that prohibitive. Myles Turner logged 25 minutes in the first three quarters of Wednesday's tilt, so hopefully, he's recovered from the hamstring issue to get back to full-time work here. He's pegged for a solid 34.5 FDP by numberFire as of now, but we do need confirmation he'll play tonight on a back-to-back.

Jarrett Allen ($7,100) -- Without Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen has shown off his scoring chops with 17.3 points per game in his last three contests. The New Orleans Pelicans allow the fifth-most FDP per game to opposing centers (54.1), so he'll have a great chance to keep the good times rolling if it's once again an all-hands-on-deck effort to score with Mitchell and Garland out of the lineup.

Bobby Portis ($5,900) -- Other than a lower-than-expected total, I don't have any idea if Giannis will play on this slate or not. Of course, if he doesn't, we've got value with almost every major Milwaukee option, including a streaking Bobby Portis that'll slot into his lineup position. Portis has eclipsed 44 FDP in two of his last three games in a bench role; we could see him as overwhelming chalk that would still pay off in a blowout should the former league MVP sit tonight.

Others to Consider

Zion Williamson ($7,800) -- The Pels' illness bug passed from Zion Williamson (listed questionable on Tuesday) to both Herbert Jones and Jonas Valanciunas for tonight's game. All three are questionable, but I'm not sure Zion is a risk to miss the game when he logged 24 minutes through it (and foul trouble) on Tuesday. Williamson could really feast if J.V. sits; he averages 47.1 FDP per 36 minutes with the Lithuanian lob threat off the floor.

Isaiah Stewart ($5,100) -- Once again, I'm hoping for reliable pieces within Jazz-Pistons, and Isaiah Stewart could end up becoming one. There's risk he finds the bench, but a larger sample of Stewart showed north of 27 minutes in six of his eight games before this recent shoulder injury. If we can get that sort of court time in his return tonight, he could absolutely punish a Utah interior ceding the 11th-most paint points per game (51.9).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.