FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Thursday 1/11/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Kyrie Irving ($10,100) -- No Luka Doncic for the Dallas Mavericks tonight. That puts Kyrie Irving in a good spot for a ceiling game. That said, it's not like he was struggling with Luka. Irving has been on a tear of late, averaging 30.3 points and 57.6 FanDuel points (FP) over his last four games. According to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, he's registered a 28.6% usage rate and averaged 1.40 FP per minute with Doncic off the floor, so there's plenty of upside.

Bradley Beal ($7,100) -- Bradley Beal hasn't quite taken off yet, but it's encouraging that he's notched 34 minutes in six straight games. He's gone over 30 FP in only half of those, but there's room for optimism tonight. The Los Angeles Lakers have fallen to 17th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and they've given up the eighth-most FP to SGs this season, per FantasyPros. The Phoenix Suns are rocking a 118.5 implied total, leaving plenty of room for Beal to thrive.

Jaden Hardy ($5,000) -- Jaden Hardy figures to be a popular value play with Luka out. With Doncic off the floor this season, Hardy has averaged 1.05 FP per minute via a 28% usage rate. Although he's been held under 11 FP in each of their last two games, Hardy exploded for 42.3 FP when Luka sat last week. He played 32 minutes in that contest and has averaged 27 minutes and 27 FP in Doncic's four absences -- compared to 14 minutes and 11.3 FP with the Mavs' superstar active. A 26.6-FP numberFire projection makes Hardy the best point-per-dollar value among guards (as of Thursday afternoon).

Others to Consider

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,300) -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander suffers from such a star-studded slate, but there's certainly an argument to build around him. SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder have the highest implied total (124.25) of the night against the Portland Trail Blazers' 19th-rated defense. While he could hit the bench early in a game the Thunder are favored by 12.5 points, we've seen SGA produce in blowouts. He has averaged 54.9 FP in the 14 games OKC's won by double-digits -- just shy of his season-long average (55.5).

Donte DiVincenzo ($5,200) -- Donte DiVincenzo has been remarkably consistent on this new-look New York Knicks squad. Since New York dealt away RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, DiVincenzo has scored between 21.9 and 27.8 FP in five straight games. That makes him a quality salary saver tonight against a Mavs defense that's let up the third-most FP to SGs. Josh Hart ($5,000) has a similar role, but he's exceeded 15 FP just twice in their Knicks' last five.

Cason Wallace ($4,600) -- Cason Wallace is a sneaky salary-saver, having averaged 20.4 minutes per game over their last seven. He's exceeded 20 FP just twice over that span but notably started the second half last night. He could get even more run in the event of an OKC blowout -- his two best fantasy games of the season came when the Thunder won by 36 and 14 points.

Wings

Top Plays

LeBron James ($10,000) -- LeBron James can still turn up for DFS when he wants to -- the trick is finding when that'll be. He's enjoyed facing the Suns this season, notching 51.1, 56.2, and 70.1 FP across three matchups. Phoenix has been a mixed bag against forwards -- they're fourth in FP allowed to SFs but just 21st against PFs. Still, numberFire's projections peg LeBron for 50.6 FP -- a number well within reason considering the game's 238.0-point over/under.

Khris Middleton ($7,200) -- There aren't a ton of viable midrange wings tonight, but Khris Middleton is a quality play at $7,200. Middleton's eclipsed 30 minutes nine times this season, and eight of those have come in his last nine appearances. He averaged 36.4 FP when meeting that 30-minute threshold, so there's room for optimism tonight coming off two days of rest. You want a piece of this Milwaukee Bucks-Boston Celtics clash -- it has a slate-high 242.5 over/under.

Quentin Grimes ($4,100) -- Quentin Grimes is one of my favorite value pieces tonight, as his salary hasn't caught up to the new role yet. Over his last five, Grimes has gone over 30 FP twice, averaging 21 FP in 19.2 minutes. Granted, four of those five games resulted in double-digit New York victories, but they're 3.5-point favorites against a Mavericks squad that's gone 1-3 with Luka out of the lineup. Those three losses came by an average of 16 points.

Others to Consider

Jayson Tatum ($10,400) -- There's a lot to like with Jayson Tatum facing Milwaukee tonight. Tatum was limited to 23 real-world points in his prior meeting with the Bucks this season, but he went for 40 in both matchups last year. Milwaukee's not a defense to fade, either. They've plummeted to 21st in defensive rating but still play at the fourth-fastest pace. I wouldn't worry about this being the second leg of a back-to-back. In four games with no rest, Tatum's averaged 54.1 FP.

Tim Hardaway ($6,300) -- No one benefits from Luka Doncic being on the bench quite like Tim Hardaway Jr. does. In total, Hardaway has posted a 23.9% usage rate and averaged 0.83 FP per minute this season. Those numbers jump to 32% and 1.09 FP per minute when Luka's off the floor. He popped off for 19 points and 31.4 FP the last time Doncic was out and could thrive against a Knicks defense that's allowed the 10th-most FP to SFs. Josh Green ($4,700) fits a similar mold, having eclipsed 25 FP in two of three games sans Doncic.

Bigs

Top Plays

Julius Randle ($8,900) -- Power forward is surprisingly deep tonight, but don't let Julius Randle slip through the cracks. The Knicks have taken off since the OG Anunoby trade, with Randle being one of the biggest beneficiaries. Over the last five games, Randle's put up 44.2 FP and registered a 33.2% usage rate -- up from 41.5 and 29% before the trade. Tonight's matchup is awfully appealing -- the Mavs are just 18th in defensive rating and have allowed the fifth-most FP to PFs. numberFire projects Randle for 47.3 FP, making him the best point-per-dollar value on the slate.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700) -- Jusuf Nurkic is a quality midrange option against a Lakers squad that's struggled with opposing bigs. LA ranks 19th in rebound rate and has allowed the sixth-most boards to the center position. Nurkic, having snagged double-digit rebounds in 17 of 35 games, stands to take advantage. That makes him worth a look -- not only in DFS but in betting markets. His rebounds prop is set at 9.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, but numberFire projections having him going for 10.9 rebounds. If you're interested in the over on Nurkic's rebounds and have two other props you like from tonight's Suns-Lakers clash, you can take advantage of FanDuel's Thursday Night No Sweat Same Game Parlay promotion.

Dwight Powell ($4,800) -- Dwight Powell is in line for another start with Dereck Lively listed as doubtful. He's played well with Lively out the last three games, averaging 23.6 FP in 25.3 minutes a night. New York has been a middle-of-the-pack D against centers since the Mitchell Robinson injury, so I'm not too worried about their 13th-rated defense. Powell's 21.7-FP projection is the highest among sub-$5K-salaried bigs.

Others to Consider

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,600) -- I'll never outright disagree with rostering Giannis Antetokounmpo, but I don't love how he fits into the slate. He still carries numberFire's highest projection (58.9), but there are a lot of high-salary options tonight. Game environment shouldn't be an issue -- Milwaukee has the second-highest implied total (123.75), and this matchup has the night's highest over/under (242.5) -- but the C's have held Giannis (relatively) in check. Dating back to last season, Antetokounmpo has gone for 50 FP just once in four matchups with Boston. His ceiling remains sky-high, even against the second-best defense in the NBA.

Christian Wood ($5,000) -- Christian Wood has worked his way back into LA's rotation, averaging 20.3 minutes and 21 FP over his last seven games. The Suns have given up the 10th-most FP to PFs, and they're just 21st in defensive rating on the season. Given LA's 119.5 implied total and considering Wood has PF and C eligibility, there's a lot to like here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.