FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Friday 1/19/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

LaMelo Ball ($9,900) -- It's not every day you see the Charlotte Hornets with a 120 implied total, but that's what happens when you face the San Antonio Spurs' 26th-ranked scoring defense. We can take advantage of that via LaMelo Ball. Ball's played three games since returning from injury, totaling 48.1 FanDuel points (FP) in 26 minutes, 47.5 FP in 30 minutes, and 47.5 FP in 31 minutes. It's fair to be wary of the low minutes, but Charlotte was blown out by 20 in each of those games. Tonight, they're 4.5-point home favorites against a team that's given up the third-most FP to PGs, per FantasyPros. He's my top guard option, bar none.

Malcolm Brogdon ($6,300) -- Lost in the Portland Trail Blazers' dumpster fire of a season: Malcolm Brogdon still has it. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year has played 30-plus minutes in only 12 games this season, but he's averaging 40.2 FP in such contests. That includes his most recent outing where he went for 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists -- good for 34 FP. A slate-high 237.5 over/under gives Brogdon the right game environment to produce against his former team, the Indiana Pacers.

Jordan Hawkins ($5,000) -- Rookie Jordan Hawkins' minutes are back up as he's played at least 20 in five of their last six games. He was held under 20 FP in three of those five but is coming off a 30.7-FP outing in a game the New Orleans Pelicans weren't resting anyone. Assuming the playing time holds, he makes for a quality value tonight against a Phoenix Suns defense that's bottom-10 in FP allowed to both guard spots over their last seven games. It doesn't hurt that this matchup has a 237 over/under, the second-highest on the slate.

Others to Consider

Dejounte Murray ($8,100) -- No Trae Young (illness) for the Atlanta Hawks tonight. That puts Dejounte Murray in a prime position to outproduce his salary. Dating back to last season, Murray has averaged 48.5 FP and seen a 28.5% usage rate in 9 games without Young, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. Miami's defense is stout, but the matchup isn't a deal-breaker. They're just 10th in defensive rating and have quietly let up the eighth-most FP to SGs.

D'Angelo Russell ($7,000) -- D'Angelo Russell will be a popular mid-range play tonight given the Los Angeles Lakers' matchup with the Brooklyn Nets. Russell has notched at least 29 FP in four straight, and he exploded for 60.6 FP just three games prior. Brooklyn, meanwhile, is a nice matchup for guards -- they've allowed the 10th-most FP to PGs and 12th-most to SGs. LA's 117 implied total isn't too shabby, either.

Markelle Fultz ($5,500) -- Markelle Fultz is trending up, having played 30 minutes in his most recent outing -- his most since returning from injury earlier this month. Although he notched just 21.3 FP in that game, the uptick in minutes suggests an inevitable return to his early season workload. In five games before he was injured, Fultz averaged 25.1 FP in 28.6 minutes per game. That's solid production from a player in his salary range, and our projections are high on him tonight. numberFire peg Fultz for 27.3 FP, making him the best point-per-dollar value point guard on the slate (as of Friday afternoon).

Wings

Top Plays

Jimmy Butler ($8,700) -- Since arriving in Miami, Jimmy Butler has averaged 44.1 FP in 11 matchups with Atlanta. He went for 49.1, 42.7, and 49.5 FP in three matchups with them last season. Considering they're bottom-seven in defensive rating and FP allowed to both forward spots, he's well-positioned to flirt with 50 yet again. It helps that there's a lot of value on Atlanta's side, so Butler fits well into Hawk-heavy builds.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,100) -- Bogdan Bogdanovic is super interesting with Trae Young out. Over the last two seasons, Bogdanovic has averaged 29.0 FP, 32.4 minutes, and a 22.4% usage rate with Young inactive. The Heat have struggled to contain opposing wings, and the projections love him. numberFire has Bogdanovic at 31.6 FP tonight. At this salary, he's the top point-per-dollar value option on the board, regardless of position. Others who get bumped up with Young out are Saddiq Bey ($5,800), Jalen Johnson ($7,600), and big man Onyeka Okongwu ($6,200), who are projected for 28.8, 34.6, and 26.4 FP, respectively.

Nicolas Batum ($5,000) -- Nicolas Batum continues to provide consistent production at a low salary. Over his last five games, Batum has averaged 23.9 FP in 30.3 minutes a night. Although this Philadelphia 76ers-Orlando Magic matchup has a slate-low 223 over/under, Batum doesn't need to score to rack up FanDuel points. He remains a quality game stack alongside Embiid.

Others to Consider

Paolo Banchero ($9,100) -- Paolo Banchero deserves a look, if nothing else because he's the top option for the team facing Joel Embiid. Banchero's cooled off a bit the last few games, but he's just two weeks removed from a blistering six-game stretch where he put up 54.9 FP per game. Philly has done a respectable job against forwards this season, but he's proven more than capable of producing against tough defenses.

Trey Murphy ($5,400) -- Trey Murphy III has gone for at least 20 FP in five of six games since returning from injury, and he's fresh off a 26.5-FP outing. The Phoenix Suns are an average matchup for opposing wings, but the slate's second-highest over/under (237) leaves plenty of room for fantasy production. In that same game, I'm interested in Herbert Jones ($5,400), as well. Jones has exceeded 20 FP only twice in his last seven games, but he continues to hover around 25 minutes per game.

Bigs

Top Plays

Joel Embiid ($12,400) -- I can't fathom not rostering Joel Embiid with how he's playing right now. The reigning MVP hasn't scored fewer than 50 FP since November 15th, and he's exceeded 60 FP in 15 of his last 17 games. It doesn't matter that Orlando is third in defensive rating and gives up the 11th-fewest FP per game to Cs. Embiid is a priority play.

Pascal Siakam ($7,900) -- There's some risk involved with Pascal Siakam in his Pacer debut, but the matchup is there for him to thrive. The Blazers are bottom-10 in defensive rating and FP allowed to both PFs and Cs. Siakam hasn't been on the DFS radar for a minute, but he should get a major upgrade with Indy. The Pacers lead the league in offensive rating and rank second in pace. The Toronto Raptors are middle of the pack (15th) in both offensive rating and pace. The potential return of Tyrese Haliburton (knee) would further bolster his prospects tonight.

Nick Richards ($6,400) -- This slate's heavy on star bigs, but Nick Richards is a quality value at center if you're looking to fade Embiid. Although Richards is questionable, he finished the last game after spraining his ankle, so there's a good chance he plays. Assuming he's active, the seven-footer could feast in a matchup with San Antonio -- a team that's allowed the sixth-most FP to Cs and who will be without their star big man. He makes a lot of sense in LaMelo Ball lineups.

Others to Consider

Anthony Davis ($11,500) -- It'd be hard to roster both Embiid and Anthony Davis, but I don't mind pivoting to LA's big man in larger tournaments. While he may not be as consistent as Embiid, AD offers similar upside, notably recording a pair of 77.4 and 81.4-FP games in his last 10. A middle-of-the-road matchup with Brooklyn doesn't scare me.

Sandro Mamukelashvili ($4,900) -- Sandro Mamukelashvili is a sneaky salary-saver in larger tournaments. The big man hardly plays when Victor Wembanyama is healthy, but he's gone for 24.1, 26.5, 6.2, and 28.1 FP in Wemby's last four absences. That said, Zach Collins ($6,300) is set to return tonight after missing the last nine games, so he figures to be a popular mid-range option in the same matchup. Collins has averaged 32.4 FP in four games sans Wembanyama, and numberFire projects him for 25.5 FP. I think both are in play -- the Hornets have given up the fourth-most FP to PFs and second-most to Cs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.