MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 8/16/23

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 8/16/23

For an eight-game main slate, we have a pretty deep selection of pitchers to choose from while still having some inviting matchups to stack for offense despite the absence of Coors Field.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

At his slate-high salary, you could make the case for some other guys over Kevin Gausman ($11,100) in tournaments, but he still comes away as the best overall option in his spot versus the Philadelphia Phillies.

While we haven't seen quite as many ceiling games from Gausman lately, his underlying metrics have remained pretty consistent throughout his campaign. Since the All-Star break, the right-hander has posted a 2.81 xFIP, 32.3% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate -- all marks that closely mirror his first-half output.

Those are numbers we'll happily take into battle against a Phillies team that's been mediocre versus right-handed pitching. In the split, Philadelphia's active roster has put up a 93 wRC+, .147 ISO, and 23.6% strikeout rate.

If you can't quite get up to Gausman, Blake Snell ($10,600) is the first guy to consider pivoting to.

There isn't anything easy about this matchup against an above-average Baltimore Orioles offense, particularly because they could have a lineup with all nine guys batting right-handed.

Snell's well-known control issues have gotten particularly ugly of late, as well, posting an 18.5% walk rate since the beginning of July. Over that span, he's issued three or more free passes in eight straight starts.

And yet, the southpaw has allowed seven earned runs total during this stretch while maintaining a 31.0% strikeout rate and 50.0% ground-ball rate. His FanGraphs hard-hit rate is a minuscule 18.5%, too. Snell may not be finding the plate consistently, but it's pretty clear that his stuff is pretty filthy right now.

Even since his walks went way up, we saw Snell log 11 strikeouts in early July, and prior to that, there was a stretch in June where he went four starts in a row with double-digit punchouts.

It might not always be pretty, but the upside is worth chasing despite the tough matchup. It can't hurt that Baltimore's implied team total (3.53) is one of the night's worst marks, so oddsmakers are siding with Snell, as well.

If you're not too keen on messing with that wonky control, though, Luis Castillo ($10,500) has you covered.

Unlike Snell, Castillo has issued more than two walks just twice the entire season, and when you add that to a 28.2% strikeout rate and a date with the Kansas City Royals, it's easy to see why Castillo's outlook is appealing.

Castillo has also logged 100 or more pitches in five straight outings, giving him one of the slate's best workloads.

Aaron Nola ($9,300) gives us a slight salary discount off those prior three, so he also deserves to be in the mix.

While the results have been mixed this year, Nola's still showing a competent 3.81 SIERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 5.8% walk rate, and he's popped for big fantasy scores here and there. The matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays isn't the best, but the absence of Bo Bichette and maybe Matt Chapman could give Nola a boost.

After Nola, Jon Gray ($8,600) might be about as low as we want to go at pitcher.

Gray's season-long numbers are generally underwhelming, but he's produced a 3.45 xFIP and 26.4% strikeout rate over his last three starts. Admittedly, he got knocked around in those first two outings, but he most recently went off for 52 FanDuel points versus the San Francisco Giants.

Affected by a blister earlier in the summer, it's possible Gray is beginning to turn things around. Although the Los Angeles Angels have some dangerous bats, their active roster has a 25.0% strikeout rate versus righties.

Hitting Breakdown

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, boosting the Chicago Cubs up to a slate-best 6.05 implied team total against Mike Clevinger.

Over 15 starts, Clevinger has a 5.46 xFIP, 19.2% strikeout rate, 9.0% walk rate, and 51.5% fly-ball rate -- not exactly the types of numbers to combat these windy conditions. And things get even worse for Clevinger versus lefties specifically, against whom he's showing a 6.37 xFIP, 16.4% strikeout rate, and 60.5% fly-ball rate.

Cody Bellinger ($4,200) is the obvious winner here, and then we have plenty of mid-range lefty options between Ian Happ ($3,300), Jeimer Candelario ($3,300), and Mike Tauchman ($3,100).

The Atlanta Braves make an appearance here again, this time sporting a 5.54 implied team total against Randy Vasquez.

Vasquez has been up and down a few times this year, and while the results have actually been pretty strong over 19 innings, a .182 BABIP and 5.58 SIERA suggest that he's been more lucky than good. Throw in a 15.0% strikeout rate and 10.0% walk rate, and there isn't anything here that should scare us from rostering the Braves.

Ronald Acuna ($4,800), Matt Olson ($4,500), and Austin Riley all have lofty salaries -- and rightfully so -- but every other projected Atlanta starter comes in below $3,000, making this stack even more enticing.

The Royals are expected to use Alec Marsh as a bulk reliever against the Seattle Mariners, and considering Julio Rodriguez ($3,800) is the only Seattle batter with a remotely high salary in the entire lineup, this is another offense that will be easy to load up on.

Marsh hasn't looked ready for primetime in his rookie campaign, and the poor control he showed in the minors has carried over into the big leagues (12.4% walk rate). But just as concerning has been his struggles with home runs, leading to a 6.06 xERA.

In addition to Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh ($2,900), Eugenio Suarez ($2,700), and Teoscar Hernandez ($2,600) have the power to take advantage of Marsh's long ball issues.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, and Chicago White Sox are also in play for stacks.

Left-hander Wade Miley has a meh 4.97 SIERA and 17.0% strikeout rate that's unlikely to keep the Dodgers in check. Reid Detmers has been rocked in back-to-back starts, and that's bad news for him entering a tough matchup with Texas. The White Sox could also find success at windy Wrigley against low-strikeout pitcher Javier Assad.


Looking to build some MLB DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy baseball lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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