FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 8/24/23

We have a five-game main slate on Thursday night, and despite the small selection, there is a solid group of pitchers to build around. For stacks, an unlikely team has the highest implied team total.

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.

Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitching Breakdown

The main slate features three pitchers with five-figure salaries, and they just so happen to be the three best options tonight.

In terms of talent, Pablo Lopez ($10,900) is quite clearly the top arm on the board. Over 25 starts this season, the right-hander has posted a 3.35 SIERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate, and he's been about as consistent as you could hope, cracking the league's top 10 in quality starts (16).

If all that wasn't enough, Lopez isn't allowing a ton of hard contact, too, leading to a 90th-percentile xERA (3.09).

He's also been in excellent form lately, allowing zero earned runs over his last three starts, resulting in FanDuel scores of 55, 49, and 49 points.

The only problem? He's facing the Texas Rangers tonight.

The Rangers' active roster not only has a scary 116 wRC+ versus right-handers, but they aren't a great matchup for generating Ks, either (21.4% strikeout rate).

This opponent definitely decreases the likelihood of a ceiling game from Lopez. But at the same time, his strikeout rate is over four percentage points higher than the next-best arm on the slate. If Lopez is at his best, the field will have a tough time keeping up.

Merrill Kelly ($10,200) is probably our best bet to dethrone Lopez, and his $700 salary discount is meaningful, as well.

Unlike Lopez, Kelly's strikeout totals can fluctuate wildly from start to start. This month, he's exceeded five innings in all four of his starts, yet it's resulted in 9, 2, 11, and 3 Ks.

While that adds to his risk, those spikes are what we need to take down a GPP. Kelly's logged nine or more punchouts five times this year, and his 25.4% overall strikeout rate is one of the night's best.

The Cincinnati Reds might not be a cupcake matchup, but they're absolutely the right team for Kelly to have one of those ceiling games. Against right-handed pitching, the Reds' active roster has a 105 wRC+ and .184 ISO but also owns the league's second-worst strikeout rate (25.9%).

Cincinnati's implied team total is the night's lowest mark (3.97), too. There's a case for viewing Kelly and Lopez as interchangeable top options depending on your salary cap needs for stacks.

Justin Steele ($10,400) is the third choice, but he has the weakest opponent of the three. The Pittsburgh Pirates doesn't strike much fear in opposing lefties, as their active roster owns a 98 wRC+, .137 ISO, and 24.4% strikeout rate in the split.

Although Steele has a lower strikeout rate (23.2%) than Lopez or Kelly, a 5.1% walk rate and 48.8% ground-ball rate keep him efficient. The southpaw has just as many quality starts as Lopez (16) despite logging two fewer total starts.

It might be best to stick with this core group, but if you're willing to throw darts at a value play, then Andrew Heaney ($8,200) could be the guy.

Make no mistake, Heaney is about as unpredictable as they come. He began August with a 61-point, 11-strikeout gem and has since scored 35, 4, and 11 points.

Theoretically, the Minnesota Twins are the type of high-strikeout matchup (24.7% rate versus lefties) where Heaney could excel, but disappointment follows him more often than not. He also doesn't have a long leash these days, reaching 90 pitches just once since the start of July.

Still, his 24.1% strikeout rate will play on a small slate, and it's possible he's had some poor luck lately, as he actually has a 3.07 xFIP in August despite the recent poor results.

Hitting Breakdown

The Chicago Cubs are perhaps the best combination of offensive talent and matchup tonight against right-hander Andre Jackson and the Pirates.

While Jackson actually has some respectable peripheral numbers over 30 2/3 MLB innings this season, he's been rocked for a 5.69 xERA, and he has a poor track record in Triple-A that dates as far back as 2021. Projections on FanGraphs all view him as a pitcher with an ERA around 5.00 along with a double-digit walk rate and home run issues.

Based on Jackson's last two starts, the Cubs ought to see him for around 70 pitches before taking their hacks at Pittsburgh's bullpen. Chicago's 4.89 implied team total is one of the slate's best.

Cody Bellinger ($4,200) continues to crush it this summer, producing a .280 ISO with 13 dingers since the beginning of July. Christopher Morel ($3,500) may have a high salary for someone who could bat as low as eighth, but his 14.1% barrel rate shows how lethal he is when he connects.

We don't necessarily have to spend up to stack the Cubs, though, as six of their projected starters have salaries of $3,200 or below, with Mike Tauchman ($3,000) and Seiya Suzuki ($2,900) having some of the lowest cap hits.

The Arizona Diamondbacks also have a plus matchup. Reds left-hander Brandon Williamson has put up a modest 4.70 SIERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate over 17 starts, and right-handed batters have launched 1.81 home runs per nine innings off a 43.6% fly-ball rate.

Christian Walker ($3,700) is the guy to build around, followed by Ketel Marte ($3,400) and Tommy Pham ($3,000). I'm not sure why Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000) hasn't hit lefties as well in recent seasons, but I'm chalking that up to small sample size noise given his career 112 wRC+ and .190 ISO in the split. Evan Longoria ($2,100) is an intriguing punt play at near-minimum salary despite some possible pinch-hit risk.

It's actually the Chicago White Sox of all teams that leads the slate with a 5.05 implied team total, which tells you a whole lot about their spot versus left-hander Ken Waldichuk.

Although Waldichuk has shown some improvement lately, it's difficult to buy into someone with such poor season-long metrics. Over 105 innings this year, the southpaw has a lackluster 21.9% strikeout rate, 12.1% walk rate, and 39.1% ground-ball rate. He also has an xFIP just above 5.00 versus both lefties and righties.

Luis Robert ($3,900) is the clear one-off if you're leery of stacking such a weak offense, but if you're going all in, the good news is that everyone else comes in at bargain-bin salaries. Outside of Robert, Eloy Jimenez ($2,900) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,900) are the top power bats.

Note that we should see temperatures in the 90s and the wind blowing out in Chicago, potentially boosting offense in this game.

That helps put the Oakland Athletics in play on the other side, and the Minnesota Twins are another stack to consider. The A's will get Jesse Scholtens, a rookie righty with a meh 4.99 SIERA and 16.9% strikeout rate this season. Given how all over the place Andrew Heaney has been, he could just as easily implode against Minnesota tonight.

Looking to build some MLB DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy baseball lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.