FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/7/23
Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.
Be sure to also incorporate numberFire's great tools into your research process, including daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, and batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups.
Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
This is a dang good pitching slate, and in my eyes, there are three hurlers who are out in their own tier -- Spencer Strider ($11,500), Freddy Peralta ($10,500) and Gerrit Cole ($11,000).
Strider's strikeout upside gives him the head seat at the table on pretty much every slate he's on, and this one is no different. The Atlanta Braves' ace owns a 39.3% strikeout rate that is a slate-best clip by a wide margin -- even on a loaded pitching slate. The matchup is a good one, too, as the Pittsburgh Pirates' active roster has the fourth-highest K rate against righties (24.5%) and the night's lowest implied total (3.24). Just make sure the weather cooperates.
After Strider, I give the edge to Peralta over Cole given the salary difference. Peralta has a dream matchup at home against the Colorado Rockies. Colorado's active roster sports a league-high 27.2% strikeout rate versus righties along with the fifth-worst wOBA (.303). With a 28.3% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate, Peralta has the stuff to post a slate-leading score in this spot.
Cole's salary puts him right between Peralta and Strider, and that could result in him seeing the lowest draft percentage of the three. Cole's 27.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging-strike rate are down a good bit from last year, but he can deliver the goods in a date versus a Chicago White Sox offense that holds the fourth-worst wOBA against right-handers (.302).
We have some appealing options at lower salaries, too -- particularly Dylan Cease ($9,000), Brayan Bello ($8,900) and Dane Dunning ($8,400), all of whom are in friendly matchups.
Cease has a lot of swing-and-miss upside for someone at $9,000, registering a 26.9% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging-strike rate. Of course, there is a reason he's salaried where he's salaried as Cease has been hammered for 11 earned runs over his past two outings (7 1/3 innings). A clash with the New York Yankees could be just what he needs to right the ship, though, as New York's active roster is a meh 22nd in wOBA against righties (.314).
Bello has a sublime matchup versus the Kansas City Royals, a team that has the sixth-worst wOBA against right-handed pitchers (.304) with the 10th-highest K rate in the split (23.0%). The owner of a 56.2% ground-ball rate and 11.3% swinging-strike rate, Bello can have success tonight.
Dunning gets the Oakland Athletics, the offense with the worst wOBA against righties (.289) along with the 11th-highest strikeout rate (22.9%). With a 4.65 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 17.0% strikeout rate, Dunning isn't as good of a pitcher as the other guys we've talked about. The matchup carries a lot of weight, though, and Dunning just punched out 11 White Sox in his last outing.
I also want to give Cole Ragans ($7,100) a shout. Ragans has been lights out in two appearances with the Royals, giving up one earned run across 11 innings while amassing a 24.4% strikeout rate and 13.7% swinging-strike rate -- including a dazzling 38% CSW last time out. However, seeing as the Boston Red Sox have the slate's highest implied total (5.42), it's probably not worth the risk. But Ragans is someone to keep an eye on moving forward as it appears he'll be a full-time starter for KC.
Hitting Breakdown
Two of the top three implied totals belong to the Braves and the Texas Rangers, but if you're using Peralta, Cole or Strider at pitcher, those two offenses are tough to jam in due to their salaries. The Red Sox, though, are easier to roster, and they have the night's top implied total.
Admittedly, I am bullish on Ragans -- a lefty -- for the reasons I just listed above, but a 5.42 implied total is a 5.42 implied total. Righties such as Adam Duvall ($2,900), Christian Arroyo ($2,400) and Robert Refsnyder ($2,600) are easy to love at their salaries -- especially Refsnyder, who is likely to be atop the order and is the night's third-best point-per-dollar bat, according to numberFire's projections. Justin Turner ($3,300) is salaried modestly and has mauled southpaws this year to the tune of a .396 wOBA, 43.2% hard-hit rate and 44.3% fly-ball rate.
If you're saving some coin on the bump, Texas and Atlanta have to be on your radar. Atlanta is facing righty Osvaldo Bido while Texas gets left-hander Ken Waldichuk. We've stacked these two offenses so many times this year that I'm not going to dive too deep into things with either, but I will tell you that Ronald Acuna ($4,700), Corey Seager ($4,300) and Marcus Semien ($3,600) are the top three bats -- in that order -- by numberFire's model.
I will go to the Milwaukee Brewers (5.07 implied total) a lot today. They have just one hitter above $3,300, making them a great fit alongside an ace pitcher, and they can go to work against Peter Lambert, a right-hander (4.44 SIERA and 20.2% strikeout rate). Christian Yelich ($3,600) and Sal Frelick ($3,300) are the top picks from the Brewers, and you can make strong cases for William Contreras ($3,100), Willy Adames ($3,000) and Carlos Santana ($3,100), too.
Do you want to be let down by the New York Mets again? Me too. New York has a 4.61 implied total versus Drew Smyly. A lefty, Smyly has struggled to a 4.50 SIERA overall and has been crushed by righties, giving up a 44.9% fly-ball rate in the split. Francisco Lindor ($3,800) and Pete Alonso ($3,700) are top-tier hitters who could go overlooked today. Starling Marte ($2,700) and Mark Vientos ($2,400) are viable value cogs.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.