FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/28/23
Monday's 12-game main slate is loaded with enticing matchups for stacks, and that includes one of the league's best offenses taking a trip to Coors Field.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
The Washington Nationals are always a mixed bag as a pitching matchup in DFS because they don't strike out often despite being a weak offense overall. But when Kevin Gausman ($10,900) is the guy on the other side, we should be more than happy to pounce.
That's because Gausman ranks second among qualified starters in strikeout rate (31.7%), which has led to him reaching double-digit strikeouts seven times. Only Spencer Strider has logged more starts with double-digit punchouts than Gausman has. Strider is also the only pitcher with a better SIERA than Gausman's stellar mark of 3.17.
That should give us plenty of confidence against a Nats lineup that's otherwise unimposing. Against righties, their active roster owns the league's second-lowest strikeout rate (19.2%) while simultaneously having the second-worst wRC+ (87), ISO (.132), and walk rate (6.2%).
Unsurprisingly, Washington has one of the night's worst implied team totals (3.16), as well. Gausman should be our first choice for the position tonight.
We know what we're getting into when rostering Blake Snell ($10,200), but his upside is never in question. While the southpaw brings an elite 31.0% strikeout rate to the table, it comes alongside a 13.5% walk rate.
This isn't a bad matchup to tap into that ceiling, though. While the St. Louis Cardinals' active roster comes with a strong .191 ISO versus lefties, they also have a 24.0% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate.
Considering Snell hasn't given up much hard contact this season and is allowing just a 31.0% fly-ball rate to righties -- St. Louis is projected to start eight players batting right-handed -- we should feel pretty good about his chances of suppressing this lineup's power. And if he's able to do that, perhaps we'll see a ceiling game tonight.
For a value play, Grayson Rodriguez ($8,700) fits the bill against the Chicago White Sox.
Although Rodriguez has cracked 40 FanDuel points just once over seven starts since getting called back up from Triple-A in July, the White Sox will be the easiest matchup he's seen over this stretch. Chicago's active roster is tied for the league's second-worst wRC+ (87) against right-handed pitching, and they're showing just a 3.66 implied team total tonight.
Rodriguez's season-long numbers might not jump off the page, but he matches up well against a predominantly right-handed lineup. When facing righties, he's put up a 3.73 xFIP, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate.
Kenta Maeda ($8,900) and perhaps Bryan Woo ($7,800) are other possible value plays.
Maeda has a Nationals-eqsue matchup against the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland's active roster has an annoying 19.0% strikeout rate when facing right-handers, but a 94 wRC+ and .132 ISO won't scare anyone. Maeda isn't someone who's likely to flirt with 100 pitches, which lowers his appeal, but the veteran's still got it, showing a 3.61 SIERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, and 6.6% walk rate over 15 starts in 2023.
Woo logged just 65 pitches in his first start since returning from the IL, so I'm skeptical he goes above the mid-80s tonight, and it's not like he's had a long leash all season, either. Still, he's flashed his potential with a 25.3% strikeout rate, and he could be worth a shot against the lowly Oakland Athletics. The A's have a slate-low 3.14 implied team total.
Hitting Breakdown
The Atlanta Braves have a downright silly 7.08 implied team total, but that's what happens when when you plop them at Coors Field against Austin Gomber.
Gomber has struggled all season and enters with a 5.21 SIERA, 14.6% strikeout rate, and 41.9% ground-ball rate. The left-hander hasn't even been effective in lefty-lefty matchups, either.
We generally don't have to be all that picky when stacking Atlanta, but this truly feels like one of those situations where you can stack anyone in the lineup. While most of the Braves are seeing a salary bump, we could see Kevin Pillar ($2,900) batting second, which would give us some much-needed value.
The Baltimore Orioles also find themselves in a favorable spot. They'll take their hacks against Michael Kopech, someone who continues to show poor control and hasn't made it through five full innings in any of his last three starts.
Since Kopech returned from the IL in mid-July, he's issued at least four walks in all but one of his eight starts, leading to a horrendous 19.1% walk rate. It's not like he's getting punchouts (15.4% strikeout rate), either, and he's giving up nearly three home runs per nine innings. Frankly, it's hard to find any positives from his recent form.
Gunnar Henderson ($3,600), Anthony Santander ($3,500), and Cedric Mullins ($3,300) are the top power options with the platoon advantage, and Ryan O'Hearn ($2,600) is a nice value play as the projected number-five hitter.
As long as the Cardinals keep rolling out the corpse of Adam Wainwright, we're going to continue attacking this matchup every week. The San Diego Padres will be the latest offense to join the festivities.
If there was an award for 2023's worst starting pitcher, Wainwright would sadly be in the running. He's posted an 11.6% strikeout rate with a 4.8% swinging-strike rate, and at this point, he's barely getting any swings and misses at all. He's in the bottom one percent in xERA (7.63), and he has the league's worst SIERA (5.74) among pitchers with at least 50 innings. Oof.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($3,700), Manny Machado ($3,400), and Juan Soto ($3,300) are the obvious headliners, but this is yet another stack where we can cast a wide net. This is the perfect time to deploy guys like Gary Sanchez ($2,600), Trent Grisham ($2,500), and Garrett Cooper ($2,400), as their high strikeout rates will be far less of a concern against Wainwright. Ben Gamel ($2,000) is at the minimum salary if he starts.
The Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and Seattle Mariners are other notable teams to consider.
Cristian Javier isn't someone we would've wanted to stack against in 2022, but he simply hasn't been the same pitcher this year. He's been abysmal against left-handed batters with a 5.96 xFIP and 15.6% strikeout rate, and Boston is projected to start six lefties tonight.
Toronto will face right-hander Josiah Gray, a pitcher who's really fallen off in the second half. Since the break, he's put up a 6.17 xFIP, 16.5% strikeout rate, and 12.7% walk rate.
The Mariners should be able to do plenty of damage against Kyle Muller. The lefty has an ERA north of 7.00 in both MLB and Triple-A this year, and his advanced metrics suggest that a turnaround is unlikely.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.