EPL Title Odds Update: Liverpool Closing in on Manchester City

With at least 19 matches in the books for every team, we are essentially at the halfway point of the 2023-24 EPL season.

With the busy stretch of festive fixtures officially behind us, some things have changed while some remain the same.

Let's take a look at where the EPL title odds stand, per the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the title odds for the top-15 teams along with a breakdown of the main contenders and notable longshots.

EPL Title Odds

Manchester City (-150)

Since our last update, City's odds of winning the title have improved from -120 to -150.

After a rough stretch of results in November, the defending champions got back on track in December. Albeit against an easy schedule, City is undefeated in their last four matches, notching three wins and a draw.

That has them sitting in third on the table, five points behind leaders Liverpool with a game in hand. Their underlying metrics continue to indicate that this is one of the weakest City sides we have seen under Pep Guardiola, and despite that, they're still one of the best teams in the league.

City's expected goal (xG) difference per 90 (+1.00) -- per FBRef -- is tied for second with Arsenal's, behind only Liverpool's (+1.08). They generate the fourth-most xG per 90 (1.94) and allow the second-fewest xG (0.94).

There are reasons to believe that they can improve on those metrics, primarily due to the eventual return of several key players from injury. Kevin De Bruyne, who has been sidelined since suffering a hamstring injury in Matchweek 1, is nearing a return. Erling Haaland, who has been out since December 6th, and Jeremy Doku, who last played on December 3rd, are both nearing a return, as well.

In the short term, City are also set to benefit from a favorable set of fixtures. Over their next four matches, they face a struggling Newcastle side, Burnley, Brentford, and Everton. After that, starting in mid-February, their schedule gets much tougher. The hope for City is by that time, the previously mentioned trio -- KDB, Haaland and Douk -- are back to full match fitness.

In addition to improvement in their own results, City's odds have also greatly benefited from the performances of their primary competitors. Liverpool has done well but should have picked up all three points at home against Manchester United (as opposed to drawing). Aston Villa also dropped points to United thanks to a stunning second-half collapse that saw them relinquish a two-goal lead in a defeat. Those results look minor compared to Arsenal, who are winless in their last three matches, including losses to West Ham and Fulham.

City are not the same side they were last season. With that said, they are still extremely good, should be getting healthier, and, outside of Liverpool, no one has stepped up to take advantage of City's decrease in form. They remain the favorites to take home the EPL crown.

Liverpool (+220)

Since our last update, Liverpool's odds to win the title have improved from +300 to +220.

During that stretch, they are undefeated, with two draws and two wins. They sit on top of the table, with a three-point lead over Aston Villa in second and a five-point lead over City, who have a game in hand.

The Reds have lost just once in their 20 EPL fixtures this season and have been solid on both sides of the pitch. They lead the EPL in xG per 90 (2.21) and allow the third-fewest xG per 90 (1.13). Their xG difference per 90 (+1.08) also paces the league.

Those metrics indicate that this is second-best Liverpool side we have seen since their title winning campaign in 2019-20. Their xG per 90 is only slightly behind their exceptional 2021-22 campaign (2.33). At this level, they are capable of dethroning City.

During their four festive fixtures, the Reds slipped up only once. Their draw to Arsenal -- while at home -- was a decent result, but their draw at home to a struggling United side was a missed opportunity to extend their lead at the top of the table. On xG, they won that fixture 2.3-0.8, but Liverpool was unable to capitalize on their chances.

Looking ahead, the next three EPL matches will be important for Liverpool. At a time when City has a relatively friendly schedule, the Reds face Bournemouth and Arsenal away and Chelsea at home. If we expect City to improve with De Bruyne and Haaland back from injury, Liverpool will need to keep pace, and they'll be losing star winger Mohamed Salah to the African Cup of Nations here soon.

After their trip to Arsenal, things look much better for the Reds. When City are contending with a difficult part of their schedule, Liverpool will face Burnley, Brentford, Luton Town, and Nottingham Forest -- leading up to a colossal Anfield clash with the defending champions in Matchweek 28.

As we have seen multiple times over the past decade, contending with City and actually beating them to the title are two different things. Liverpool has shown they are capable of doing it, but we have a long way to go and every single point counts.

Arsenal (+750)

The main difference in the odds from our last update to now is the Gunners' fall. Their odds have decreased from +380 to +750, and they are now further away from Liverpool in second than the Reds are from City in first.

To put it nicely, the festive fixtures were not kind to Arsenal. The Gunners started off on the right foot, recording a 2-0 win over Brighton and a road draw with Liverpool, but back-to-back losses to West Ham and Fulham have derailed their campaign.

In the last update, I mentioned how Arsenal's season had greatly benefited from their consistency against lesser opposition. At that time, they had only once dropped points to a team ranked outside the top-10 in xG difference per 90. Since then, they have done so twice.

Had they maintained their success, they would sit one point clear at the top of the table -- instead, they sit in fourth, five points behind Liverpool.

The good news for the Gunners is that the underlying metrics indicate that they deserved better results. On xG, they finished ahead of both Fulham (1.6-1.2) and West Ham (2.7-1.4). Their xG difference per 90 (+1.00) is tied with City's for second-best in the EPL. They allow the fewest xG per 90 (0.82) and generate the fifth-most (1.82).

There is still time for Arsenal to rejoin the title race. By the odds, they are in a mini-tier of their own -- below City and Liverpool but well ahead of the next-closest side. A title challenge is certainly still possible, but it will require an immediate turnaround results.

With City getting healthier and Liverpool in excellent form, Arsenal likely can't afford to see their winless streak extend any further. Matches against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest provide them an opportunity to turn things around before a crucial home clash with the Reds on February 4th.

That match versu Liverpool is likely to be an inflection point in the Gunners' campaign.

Aston Villa (+2100)

Since our last update, Villa's title odds have decreased from +1800 to +2100.

With the Villans sitting in second on the table at the halfway point, this season is already a massive success for Unai Emery's side. Their impressive start has them in a position to potentially produce a shocking title challenge, but doing so is going to be a difficult task.

Unlike the three sides above them on this list, Villa's underlying metrics do not put them in the tier of title contender. They rank sixth in xG per 90 (1.80) and fourth in xG allowed per 90 (1.28). Their xG difference per 90 (+0.52) is very good but is significantly behind the marks of Liverpool, City, and Arsenal.

In terms of style, Villa's metrics are similar to Liverpool's. They are a better side on offense than defense, but the difference is Villa are drastically overperforming their xG totals while Liverpool is slightly underperforming theirs.

Both sides have scored 43 goals this season -- Villa has done so from 36.0 xG while Liverpool has done so from 44.1 xG. On defense, the opposite is true as Liverpool has allowed 18 goals from 22.6 xG while Villa has allowed 27 goals from 25.6 xG. The xG numbers indicate that Liverpool's current trajectory is more sustainable than Villa's.

Winning a title requires consistency. With their wins over City and Arsenal, Villa has shown that they can earn a result against the best of the best. Their recent home draw against Sheffield United showed they can drop points against weaker sides, and the collapse against Manchester United was a blow given the Villans' 2-0 halftime lead.

A large part of Villa's inconsistency comes down to their home/road splits. At home, they are undefeated this season with nine wins and one draw across 10 fixtures. In their 10 road games, they have four wins, four losses, and two draws.

Villa is having a fantastic season, but if they are going to seriously challenge for the title, they need to shore up their form away from home. Their xG difference per 90 on the road this season (-0.16) is well behind the marks for the other contenders -- Liverpool (+0.17), Arsenal (+0.69) and City (+1.16).

Longer Shots

Tottenham (+3200)

After picking up three wins from four matches, Tottenham's title odds have improved from +4400 to +3200. They sit in fifth on the table, one point behind Arsenal in fourth and six points behind league-leading Liverpool.

Spurs' four festive fixtures were a great illustration of their season so far. They earned results, but their xG metrics indicate that they were fortunate to do so. In their victories over Nottingham Forest and Everton, they won by a combined score of 4-1, but on xG, the combined result was 3.0-3.1. For the season, Spurs' xG difference per 90 (+0.02) ranks 10th, nearly a full goal per match behind the clips for City, Arsenal, and Liverpool.

Their primary issue is their defense. They allow the fourth-most xG per 90 (1.74) in the EPL. Spurs' overperformance of their expected outcomes so far this season has them in an excellent position heading into the second half of the season. To challenge for a title, they will need to improve on both sides of the pitch. If they don't, their results will likely catch up to their underlying metrics, as they did in November.

Manchester United (+19000)

United's odds haven't changed since our last update, but Newcastle's collapse has moved the Red Devils up one spot on the odds table.

The festive season brought more of the same for United -- inconsistency in all phases of the game. A draw on the road against Liverpool brought hope, a 2-0 loss to West Ham erased it. A stunning three-goal comeback against Aston Villa brought hope, a horrendous 2-1 loss to Nottingham Forest erased it.

United sit in eighth on the table, 14 points behind Liverpool. They rank 11th in xG per 90 (1.46) and 12th in xG allowed per 90 (1.62). Their xG difference per 90 (-0.17) checks in 11th. United has shown glimpses of potential, but those glimpses have been exceedingly rare, while their struggles on both sides of the pitch have been on display far more often.

Any hope of a drastic turnaround in the second half of the season starts with United's finishing. Their 22 goals this season are tied for the third-fewest in the league. The difference between their goals and xG (-7.1) is the second-worst in the league, behind only Brentford's (-7.6).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.