Does CeeDee Lamb Have the Upside to Be Fantasy's Overall WR1?

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is right around the corner, and the Dallas Cowboys are slated to report to training camp on July 26th.

With the fantasy football draft season approaching, we at FanDuel Research are breaking down all the top names ahead of the 2023 season. This piece focuses on the outlook of Dallas' top wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb.

CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 165 targets, 107 receptions, 1,369 yards, 10.0 receiving TDs (255.5 half-PPR points)

numberFire Positional Projection: WR7

CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Outlook

Wide Reciever Draft Trends

Receivers are going earlier and more plentifully than ever before -- at least according to current half-PPR average draft position (ADP) data from FantasyPros.

As it currently stands, seven receivers are going in the first round of fantasy drafts -- the most since FantasyPros began tracking half-PPR ADP in 2018. There is also a noticeable uptick in receivers drafted inside the first three rounds, with the number jumping up to 16 this year.

With ADP suggesting you're going to have to pony up for an elite WR, you don't want to swing and miss. You can't win your fantasy league in the first few rounds, but you can certainly lose it. Early-round players form the foundation of your team.

Last year's WR6 with an ADP of No. 11 overall, Lamb is a great building block in 2023.

2022 Rewind

Everything finally came together for Lamb last season. In his first two NFL seasons, he was the epitome of a "WR2 with WR1 upside," but he broke out as a bonafide star in 2022. Lamb exploded for 107 receptions, 1,359 yards, and 9 touchdowns -- racking up 248.1 fantasy points (14.6 PPG) and finishing as the WR6. He was remarkably consistent, as well, putting out a WR1 (top-12) finish in eight separate weeks.

He wasn't just a productive fantasy receiver, either. PFF graded Lamb as their No. 8 overall wideout. Per numberFire, Lamb ranked sixth among receivers with 120.70 Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) and was fifth in Target NEP (minimum 100 targets). (NEP indicates the expected points gained and helps take into account the context of a play rather than just the raw, box score production.) By NEP, Lamb was one of the most influential receivers in the league last year.

Much of his production came from the slot, where Lamb operated on 62.5% of snaps. CeeDee led the NFL in both slot receptions (63) and yards (867). In the slot, his 10.8 average depth of target (aDOT) was a strong number that ranked fourth among receivers with at least 40 slot targets.

The departure of Amari Cooper turned Lamb into the target monster fantasy owners had been clamoring for. His 28.5% target share ranked eighth among receivers, on pace with notable target hogs Justin Jefferson (28.5%), Stefon Diggs (27.5%), and Diontae Johnson (26.8%). It also marked a substantial uptick compared to Lamb's first two seasons when he commanded measly 20.4% and 18.0% shares.

While he still finished with 9 touchdowns (fourth among receivers), Lamb's lackluster 21.4% red-zone target share caped his overall upside. However, given his role, Lamb faired well inside the 20 -- especially compared to other high-usage slot receivers such as Tyreek Hill (17.6% red-zone target share) and Chris Godwin (14.8%).

Still just 24 years old, Lamb is primed for another step forward in 2023 as Dak Prescott's clear number-one target.

2023 Preview

The Cowboys' offense will look a lot different in 2023, and it remains to be seen how that impacts Lamb's fantasy value.

To begin with, the biggest change comes via their scheme as Brian Schottenheimer is in as offensive coordinator and Mike McCarthy takes over play-calling responsibilities. Schottenheimer's last run as an OC came in Seattle, where he served that role from 2018 to 2020. Under Schottenheimer's leadership, the Seahawks were one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL -- ranking 2nd ('18), 3rd ('19), and 17th ('20) in rushing attempts. That's been a theme throughout Schottenheimer's 12 years as an OC, with him ranking inside the top 10 in rushing attempts five times.

His arrival likely won't do much for Dallas' pass rate considering Schottenheimer-led offenses have only once ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts. However, it's important to note that he won't be calling plays -- with McCarthy taking over that role. McCarthy notably spearheaded the Green Bay Packers' offense from 2006 to 2018 to mixed results. While he ended on a sour note, McCarthy's Packers regularly ranked at or above the league average in pass attempts.

In all likelihood, the change at OC won't have a major impact on Lamb's production. While it obviously helped to have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Green Bay consistently featured WR1s in fantasy -- with slot specialist Jordy Nelson's top-five fantasy seasons in 2014 and 2016 serving as a possible barometer for CeeDee's workload.

Other than coaching changes, the Cowboys acquired veteran receiver Brandin Cooks. With 1,000-yard campaigns in six of his nine seasons, Cooks will command targets -- although, the departures of Dalton Schultz (19.6% target share) and Noah Brown (13.1%) free up 163 targets to go around.

Cooks' biggest impact on Lamb may come via their alignment. Like Lamb, Cooks has been used both in the slot and out wide throughout his career. They'll likely rotate around, but that pairing is one to watch in the early part of the season.

Final Verdict

CeeDee Lamb's lack of red-zone involvement caps his upside, but he still posted a WR6 finish last year in spite of that.

He's someone worth targeting in the early rounds of drafts thanks to his enormous floor, but if the Cowboys make him a priority in the red zone, Lamb could vault into the elite tier of fantasy pass catchers.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.