Daily Strikeout Leader: Which Long Shot Can Knock Off Spencer Strider?
Each day on FanDuel Sportsbook, there is no shortage of MLB odds to sift through, and you're likely familiar with a lot of them. That includes strikeout props, which are entertaining because they add importance to each pitch.
FanDuel Sportsbook has cranked that up a few notches with its daily strikeout leader market. Not only do you need your guys to rack up Ks -- you need them to get more punchouts than any of the day's other starting pitchers.
Here are today's odds in that market along with some key strikeout numbers -- including strikeouts per start (K/Start), strikeout rate (K%), and called-strike-plus-whiff rate (CSW%).
The Top Dog
Spencer Strider is a sizable favorite in this market, listed at +110 to lead all pitchers in strikeouts on Tuesday. Only one other hurler has odds shorter than +950.
While I'm inclined to pass on Strider at this number, there's no denying how much strikeout upside he possesses tonight versus the Los Angeles Angels as he owns a 39.6% strikeout rate and 19.6% swinging-strike rate. He's punched out at least nine in seven straight starts, so it will likely take double-digit Ks to best Strider today.
Sure, I'm Down
In my eyes, Zac Gallen and Lance Lynn are the obvious top alternatives if you don't want to take Strider at +110.
Gallen gets the San Francisco Giants, a team that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate against righties (24.9%). Gallen boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging-strike rate, and he's fanned at least eight in two of his last five outings. He's fully capable of getting to double-digit Ks against the strikeout-happy Giants and is easy to love at +1300.
Lynn has the dream matchup, taking on the Oakland Athletics in his first start since being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the matchup is a big reason why Lynn's number is at +500 -- a clip that makes him the clear second favorite -- Lynn has a 26.9% strikeout rate and 3.90 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), so he has been much better than his 6.47 ERA indicates.
It's Possible
Among the long shots, Freddy Peralta and Brayan Bello catch my eye.
Peralta is taking on a Washington Nationals offense that stinks (22nd in wOBA) against righties but one that also puts the ball in play a lot (second-lowest strikeout rate) in the split. Peralta would need to be super locked in to approach 10-plus Ks against the Nats, but he's a guy who has flashed immense strikeout upside, notching 10 and 13 Ks in two of his last four starts. In all, he's struck out at least eight in seven of his last 16 appearances. For +4400, I'm very intrigued.
My interest in Bello is somewhat matchup-driven as he'll see a Seattle Mariners lineup that carries the second-highest strikeout rate versus right-handers (26.0%). That's a nice place to start when you're talking about a pitcher who is listed at +5000. While Bello doesn't normally generate a ton of strikeouts, his 11.2% swinging-strike rate isn't a bad number.
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