Daily Strikeout Leader: Andrew Abbott Is an Appealing Longshot
Each day on FanDuel Sportsbook, there is no shortage of MLB odds to sift through, and you're likely familiar with a lot of them. That includes strikeout props, which are entertaining because they add importance to each pitch.
FanDuel Sportsbook has cranked that up a few notches with its daily strikeout leader market. Not only do you need your guys to rack up Ks -- you need them to get more punchouts than any of the day's other starting pitchers.
Here are today's odds in that market along with some key strikeout numbers -- including strikeouts per start (K/Start), strikeout rate (K%), and called-strike-plus-whiff rate (CSW%).
Pitcher | FanDuel Sportsbook Odds | Starts | Ks in Starts | K/Start | K% | CSW% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blake Snell | +550 | 23 | 164 | 7.1 | 31.3% | 30.1% |
Jesus Luzardo | +550 | 23 | 155 | 6.7 | 28.9% | 30.4% |
Lance Lynn | +550 | 23 | 157 | 6.8 | 26.8% | 27.7% |
Justin Verlander | +550 | 17 | 85 | 5.0 | 20.5% | 25.8% |
Luis Castillo | +550 | 23 | 155 | 6.7 | 27.9% | 29.7% |
Corbin Burnes | +750 | 23 | 141 | 6.1 | 25.0% | 29.5% |
Charlie Morton | +1500 | 22 | 132 | 6.0 | 24.3% | 30.5% |
The Top Tier
This is a super fan market today as things are wide open, with five co-favorites listed at +550. Among those five, Jesus Luzardo and Lance Lynn stand out to me.
Luzardo gets the New York Yankees, an offense that just isn't good. The Yanks' active roster owns the sixth-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) against lefties and is just 18th in wOBA (.327) in the split. With a 14.4% swinging-strike rate and 28.9% strikeout rate, Luzardo is capable of racking up a lot of Ks tonight.
Lynn also boasts a sweet matchup as he's at home versus the Colorado Rockies. Away from home, Colorado's active roster is dead last in wOBA (.285) with the highest strikeout rate (29.1%), so, yeah, it's a good spot for Lynn. The right-handed Lynn has been pretty unlucky this year as he's deserved much better than a 6.11 ERA, with his expected FIP (xFIP) checking in at 4.03. He's got swing-and-miss stuff -- 26.8% strikeout rate and 13.7% swinging-strike rate -- and can deal tonight.
It's a Deep Burn(es)
Corbin Burnes might be figuring things out.
Across his last seven starts, he's pitched to a 30.4% K rate and 2.93 FIP. Listed at +750 in this market, Burnes is right behind the co-favorites, and in a matchup with the Chicago White Sox -- a team with the third-worst wOBA (.292) versus right-handers -- Burnes can keep rolling.
All in all, though, given his underwhelming season-long performance, which includes an 11.9% swinging-strike rate, Burnes doesn't belong in the top tier for this market.
Two Lefty Longshots
After Burnes, the market falls off a cliff, with just one pitcher at odds shorter than +2900. There are two longshots I can talk myself into -- Reid Detmers and Andrew Abbott.
Abbott has shown the ability to generate top-shelf strikeout upside in a given start, posting a pair of games with double-digit strikeouts over his first 12 starts -- with two other outings of at least eight Ks. That gets me intrigued at his +3000 number. The matchup is nice, too, as the Pittsburgh Pirates have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) against left-handers.
Detmers is a little appealing at his massive +3600 number. He can miss bats, sporting a 28.8% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging-strike rate. The matchup stinks, though, as he'll see the Houston Astros, the team with the second-lowest K rate (17.7%) versus southpaws. Detmers has hit at least eight punchouts in seven of his last 13 starts, so he has the ability if he's on. He'll need to be special tonight to do it to Houston.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.