Daily Fantasy Golf: Analyzing Trends in Past Perfect FanDuel Lineups
Golf is a hard game, and learning never ends.
That's a lot like daily fantasy golf.
With the potential of missed cuts even for the game's superstars, volatility is high in daily fantasy golf.
But similar to how we can work on our transition during conversations or at the grocery store, we can also continue to work on our DFS golf game -- and one way we can do that is by learning from past perfect daily fantasy golf lineups.
Perfect FanDuel Golf Lineups
A perfect lineup for our purposes doesn't mean the one you think is flawless before the contest locks. No, it's the one that can generate the highest FanDuel point total while staying under the salary cap based on actual performance in a given golf tournament.
My sample includes 235 perfect lineups from 2018 through 2023. That includes strong fields and weak fields, small fields and large fields, and majors and non-majors. That allows us to get a little granular, so let's rock.
Overall Trends in Perfect FanDuel Golf Lineups
Here are some high-level trends from the perfect lineup sample broken down by various variables.
Optimal Lineup Averages | Total FanDuel Points | Total Salary | Winner Salary | Highest Salary | Lowest Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Fields | 698.4 | $57,581 | $10,377 | $11,671 | $7,731 |
Small Fields (Under 100 Players) | 707.1 | $58,735 | $10,925 | $11,790 | $7,800 |
Medium Fields (101 to 139 Players) | 681.1 | $57,298 | $10,331 | $11,465 | $7,740 |
Large Fields (140 or More Players) | 701.9 | $57,279 | $10,201 | $11,708 | $7,702 |
No-Cut Events | 720.5 | $58,617 | $10,902 | $11,839 | $7,810 |
Events With a Cut | 693.7 | $57,362 | $10,266 | $11,636 | $7,714 |
Majors | 573.0 | $59,232 | $10,836 | $11,673 | $7,955 |
PGA Perfect Lineup Trends by Field Size
Optimal Lineup Averages | Total FanDuel Points | Total Salary | Winner Salary | Highest Salary | Lowest Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Fields | 698.4 | $57,581 | $10,377 | $11,671 | $7,731 |
Small Fields (Under 100 Players) | 707.1 | $58,735 | $10,925 | $11,790 | $7,800 |
Medium Fields (101 to 139 Players) | 681.1 | $57,298 | $10,331 | $11,465 | $7,740 |
Large Fields (140 or More Players) | 701.9 | $57,279 | $10,201 | $11,708 | $7,702 |
Notes
- There is little variation in total FanDuel points based on field size.
- Small-field perfects tend to spend a higher-than-average salary ($58,735).
- Small-field winners have -- on average -- the highest salary ($10,925) than any other split in the table above.
- Large-field winners have one of the lowest average salaries ($10,201) of any split in the first table. The only split with a lower average salary is for a weak field of any size ($10,057).
PGA Perfect Lineup Trends by Cut Rules
Optimal Lineup Averages | Total FanDuel Points | Total Salary | Winner Salary | Highest Salary | Lowest Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Fields | 698.4 | $57,581 | $10,377 | $11,671 | $7,731 |
No-Cut Events | 720.5 | $58,617 | $10,902 | $11,839 | $7,810 |
Events With a Cut | 693.7 | $57,362 | $10,266 | $11,636 | $7,714 |
Notes
- No-cut perfect lineups score about 3.2% more FanDuel points (720.5) than the full-sample average.
- Winners of no-cut events average a hefty $10,902 salary, and these lineups tend to feature the highest salaried golfer ($11,839) on average.
- This means the studs are pretty necessary for no-cut events.
- Contrary to (potentially) popular opinion, no-cut events are not necessarily the time to load up on value plays.
- The lowest-salaried perfect-lineup golfer in events without a cut is, on average, higher ($7,810) than the average salary of the lowest-salaried golfer in events with a cut ($7,714).
- Just because a golfer at minimum salary is guaranteed four rounds doesn't necessarily indicate he'll rack up fantasy points.
PGA Perfect Lineup Trends in Majors
Optimal Lineup Averages | Total FanDuel Points | Total Salary | Winner Salary | Highest Salary | Lowest Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Fields | 698.4 | $57,581 | $10,377 | $11,671 | $7,731 |
Majors | 573.0 | $59,232 | $10,836 | $11,673 | $7,955 |
Non-Majors | 711.3 | $57,410 | $10,330 | $11,671 | $7,708 |
Notes
- Majors are not birdie-fests, and that means FanDuel scoring drops off (573.0 average points).
- That's 82.1% of the average FanDuel point total across the full sample.
- This means that the added points we get from finishing positions are worth a disproportionately high rate at majors.
- Put another way: in easier contests, golfers who are making a lot of birdies and eagles but losing ground back with bogeys can score a lot of fantasy points. That's not generally how it works at majors, so a golfer's finishing position is even more important for majors.
- Major perfect lineups have the highest average salary spent of any in the split ($59,232).
- That includes the highest average minimum salary in the sample ($7,955).
PGA Perfect Lineup Trends by Field Strength
Optimal Lineup Averages | Total FanDuel Points | Total Salary | Winner Salary | Highest Salary | Lowest Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weak Fields (OWGR Rank 225 or Lower) | 732.1 | $56,241 | $10,057 | $11,764 | $7,685 |
Average Fields (OWGR Rank 226 to 549) | 705.4 | $57,906 | $10,383 | $11,688 | $7,662 |
Tough Fields (OWGR Rank 550 or Higher) | 695.8 | $57,803 | $10,603 | $11,474 | $7,874 |
Notes
- There's a strong relationship between field strength and FanDuel points.
- This makes sense, as opposite-field and overall weaker events tend to be birdie-centric, thus allowing for more fantasy points.
- Weak fields average the lowest total salary ($56,241) of any split listed above.
- This speaks to a lack of superstars in these fields and a more volatile outcome due to the overlap with easy-scoring setups.
- Weak fields have the lowest average winner salary of any in the split, clocking in at just over $10,000 ($10,057).
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.