Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 18 Saturday Slate
The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us. We'll get our feet wet on Saturday with a pair of exciting matchups that have major implications on the playoff race.
Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 18 FanDuel Saturday slate.
Slate Overview
Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.
Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Spread | Over/Under | Opp D Rank | Opp Pass D Rank | Opp Rush D Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PIT | BAL | 19.5 | -4.0 | 35.5 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
HOU | IND | 23.5 | -1.5 | 47.5 | 16 | 14 | 18 |
Quarterbacks
With Lamar Jackson ($8,000) sitting for the Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup, C.J. Stroud ($8,300) becomes to best signal-caller play on the slate, especially because his game offers us a meaty 47.5 over/under.
Stroud is projected for a slate-high 18.5 FanDuel Points, per numberFire, against the Indianapolis Colts. Stroud mustered 21.46 FanDuel Points in a Week 2 matchup versus the Colts and could be put into a pass-heavy script in this AFC South battle for a playoff spot.
Stroud's best fantasy performance stands at 41.8 FanDuel Points this season, making him far and away the best QB option on the slate.
Beyond Stroud, Gardner Minshew ($7,100) is worth a look. Minshew is projected for the second-most FanDuel Points (16.1) at this position, and the Texans are letting up the seventh-most FanDuel Points to quarterbacks. Minshew also offers us decent stacking options and should have a lower roster rate than Stroud.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor ($9,200) might just be the star of this slate. He's projected to net 16.2 FanDuel Points (second-most behind Stroud) against a Texans team that cedes the eighth-most FanDuel Points to running backs.
Taylor touts a team-leading 53.1% red zone rush share. His usage would only go up should Zack Moss (forearm) fail to find his way off Indy's injury report.
Devin Singletary ($6,500) is projected to grab 14.0 FanDuel Points (second-most among running backs). His lack of touchdown upside, in comparison to our other options, makes him less appealing. Plus, if I'm siding with Stroud, I want to stack him with Houston receivers over anything.
Najee Harris ($7,500) and Jaylen Warren ($6,000) will go up against a Baltimore team that allows the third-fewest FanDuel Points to running backs. But given the circumstances, we could see the Ravens take their foot off the gas pedal. Harris (knee) has been limited in practice this week. If he's unable to play, Warren slides in as a viable Pittsburgh play.
I'm going to want a piece of the Ravens at this position. We should expect Baltimore to play a slow game that favors a contest on the ground. The Steelers sacrifice the fifth-most FanDuel Points to backs.
We have plenty of Baltimore options with Gus Edwards ($6,600), Justice Hill ($5,800), and Melvin Gordon ($5,400). Edwards is their guy in the red zone, Hill plays a role in both the run and pass game, and Gordon received six garbage time carries and ran in a touchdown in last week's blowout victory. As we get closer to the game and hear more out of Baltimore's camp, it will become more clear as to how we should approach these players. As of now, it seems Hill is the best option -- he reeled in 19.7 FanDuel Points last week, offers more upside than Gordon at a similar salary, and could take on a less cautionary role than Edwards on Saturday.
Wide Receivers
A Stroud-Nico Collins stack is perhaps the most intriguing on Saturday. Collins is projected to net 14.1 FanDuel Points (highest among WRs), and Houston's injury report shows us that some of the secondary target options behind Collins might not be available.
Collins has scored 24-plus FanDuel points on three occasions this season, one of which came against the Colts in Week 2.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,700) is the best stacking option if you are rostering Minshew. He's averaging a tad more FanDuel Points per game (12.72) than Collins (12.69) and will go up against a D that allows the 12th-most FanDuel Points to his position.
A Stroud, Collins, and Jonathan Taylor stack is as attractive as it is expensive, so Josh Downs ($5,800) and Alec Pierce ($5,500) become viable plays in lieu of Pittman.
George Pickens ($7,500) has had his fair share of dud performances, but he is averaging 25.1 FanDuel Points across his last two games. He's my top Pittsburgh priority in a must-win game for the Steelers.
Depending on how the Ravens decide to approach Saturday's game, I'd also be interested in Rashod Bateman ($5,600), Odell Beckham ($5,400), or Nelson Agholor ($5,100). Zay Flowers ($7,000) has yet to practice this week and his absence would open the floodgate for lower-salary Baltimore receivers.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz ($5,800) is the third and final Texan that I want in my lineup. He ranks second (behind only Collins) in target share, red zone target share, and end zone target share for Houston and is projected to record the most FanDuel Points (8.2) at this position.
Pat Freiermuth ($5,000) could be given consideration, but I'd only be high on him if the extra saved salary helped me get to one of the studs on this slate.
Isaiah Likely ($6,400) has become one of the best tight end plays in the league across the last few weeks, but uncertainty looms with Baltimore. numberFire is projecting him to net just 6.5 FanDuel Points this week, so I feel comfortable fading him for the time being.
Defenses
Given the 35.5 over/under for the Ravens-Steelers matchup, it seems they are the only defenses worth mentioning as fantasy plays.
The Steelers D/ST ($4,700) is projected for 8.8 FanDuel Points, which is more than two points higher than the next-best. Tyler Huntley will be a turnover candidate, so I'd be willing to fork up salary on this modest slate to get to Pittsburgh.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.