Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Week 10
After a few main slates with low totals, the Week 10 main slate promises some more fantasy points and touchdowns.
Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 10 FanDuel main slate.
Slate Overview
Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.
Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Spread | Over/Under | Opp D Rank | Opp Pass D Rank | Opp Rush D Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DAL | NYG | 27.5 | -16.5 | 38.5 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
CIN | HOU | 26.75 | -6.5 | 47.0 | 23 | 25 | 8 |
DET | @LAC | 25.75 | -3.0 | 48.5 | 25 | 24 | 13 |
SEA | WSH | 25.25 | -6.0 | 44.5 | 29 | 27 | 22 |
SF | @JAC | 24.25 | -3.0 | 45.5 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
LAC | DET | 22.75 | 3.0 | 48.5 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
ATL | @ARI | 22.5 | -1.5 | 43.5 | 31 | 30 | 25 |
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Salary: $8,200
Matchup: vs. Houston Texans
The theme of the week -- to me -- is that there are a lot of good plays but only a few great plays that really stand out as virtually unblemished process plays.
Also, to me, Joe Burrow is one of the great ones this week.
Firstly, while I care heavily about data, Burrow is starting to look more like himself despite still not being 100% after his offseason calf injury. He's averaged 1.6 scrambles per game over his past five, via NextGenStats, after not scrambling at all through three games.
Over his past four games, Burrow has averaged 283.3 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game while putting up 0.13 EPA (expected points added) per dropback (0.20 per dropback once adjusting for opponents faced). The success rate is great, and the matchup with Houston (last in completion rate over expectation allowed) means a ceiling game is in play.
Update: Tee Higgins is expected to miss Sunday's game, and Ja'Marr Chase was limited in practice on Thursday.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Matchup: vs. Atlanta Falcons
I think you can find a safer alternative to Burrow, such as Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, or C.J. Stroud as part of game stacks.
But Kyler Murray is set to return this week, and his upside is pretty obvious -- especially with news that his offensive coordinator doesn't expect any restrictions on his rushing.
The Falcons rank 25th in pressure rate and 22nd in adjusted pass defense (per numberFire's metrics) while boasting a top-five adjusted rush defense.
That could lead to passing volume from Murray in a plus matchup. It's possible his salary isn't this low the rest of the season.
Others to Consider
Justin Herbert ($8,500 vs. Detroit Lions) - Great game stack start; Lions are a top-12 pass D, though.
Jared Goff ($8,000 at Los Angeles Chargers) - Chargers are 24th in adjusted pass D; could be a high-scoring game.
C.J. Stroud ($7,700 at Cincinnati Bengals) - Coming off a career game to face a mid-range pass D but still in a run-heavy offense.
Geno Smith ($6,900 vs. Washington Commanders) - Commanders are bottom-six in adjusted pass D; Smith's efficiency is fine but not great.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
FanDuel Salary: $8,400
Matchup: vs. San Francisco 49ers
The role for Travis Etienne is really great. He has had a 71.9% snap rate or better in every game this season and is now coming off of a bye to face a 49ers defense that may be a little overrated.
They're 23rd in rushing success rate and 21st in adjusted FanDuel points per target allowed to backs.
Etienne has averaged 106.1 scrimmage yards per game, second only to Christian McCaffrey (118.0) in the league. Etienne also has a solid 32.0% red zone opportunity share.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel Salary: $7,800
Matchup: vs. New York Giants
The salary here doesn't match the production here, and I get it. Rather, the salary is up because of the matchup as extremely heavy favorites.
But Tony Pollard is still averaging an okay 83.0 yards per game from scrimmage while maintaining a 37.4% red zone opportunity share in a good overall offense.
The Giants are just 16th in adjusted rush defense, and in their first matchup, Pollard scored his only two touchdowns of the season. They were carved up last week on the ground and are bottom-six in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry allowed to RBs.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Salary: $6,800
Matchup: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Similar to all positions, running back is lacking true priority-level plays as we enter the weekend until (or if) we get any breaking news that opens up obvious value.
With that in mind, Aaron Jones stands out in the sub-$7,000 range.
Jones is coming off a season-high snap rate (57.4%) last week, and he faces a Steelers team that is 20th in adjusted rush defense and is allowing a top-five RYOE per carry rate to RBs.
Despite a shared workload so far this season, he's still had a 36.5% red zone share in his active games.
Others to Consider
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 at Jacksonville Jaguars) - Not enough value to get to CMC easily, but he's worth it when possible with a lack of priority plays.
Joe Mixon ($7,700 vs. Houston Texans) - Constantly playing snaps, and now Burrow is playing better.
Rachaad White ($7,000 vs. Tennessee Titans) - Quietly top-four in snap rate among RBs in active games on the main slate.
Bijan Robinson ($6,600 at Arizona Cardinals) - 72.7% and 61.2% of snaps the past two games; Cards are 31st in overall adjusted defense.
Wide Receivers
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase FanDuel Salary: $9,300
Higgins FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Matchup: vs. Houston Texans
Keying on the Bengals/Texans game is something I think makes sense this week, and that'll point me to the Bengals' top-two WRs.
In five games with Higgins playing at least 65% of the team's snaps, Ja'Marr Chase has a 27.4% target share (35.4% air yards share) with a per-game average of 10.4 targets and 70.4 yards.
As for Tee Higgins, he has a 22.6% target share but 40.7% air yards share (8.6 targets and 57.8 yards per game).
Notably, Higgins has caught just 26.1% of his targets of at least 10-plus air yards (6 of 23), a position-low among wideouts with at least 20 such targets.
Houston is 27th in yards per target allowed on downfield passes.
Update: Tee Higgins is expected to miss Sunday's game, and Ja'Marr Chase was limited in practice on Thursday. Chase would be an elite play without Higgins.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
FanDuel Salary: $6,800
Matchup: vs. Washington Commanders
Tyler Lockett is holding a 27.9% target share over the past two games, which is notable because that was after D.K. Metcalf returned from a one-game absence and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's role increased.
Overall, he has a 23.5% target share (7.1 per game) for only 50.3 yards per game on an 11.7-yard average depth of target.
Like Higgins, Lockett is underperforming on downfield throws -- just not nearly as much. He's caught 45.0% of his targets (9 of 20). Washington is 30th in passing aDOT allowed and 23rd in yards per target allowed on downfield passes.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
FanDuel Salary: $6,400
Matchup: at Cincinnati Bengals
Tank Dell has a really fun role within the Texans' offense. He is averaging 1.3 carries per game, which is third among all main-slate receivers, and he's up to 2.3 per game since Week 4 -- a pretty sizable sample. Those extra touches shouldn't be overlooked.
Dell also has a 24.2% target share and a team-high 40.6% air yards share in two post-bye games, and post-bye numbers for rookies deserve some extra attention. It's a great overall role.
Others to Consider
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,600 at Los Angeles Chargers) - 11.1 targets per game in healthy contests.
Chris Olave ($7,400 at Minnesota Vikings) - Huge regression candidate still; 9.4 targets per game.
Christian Kirk ($6,700 vs. San Francisco 49ers) - 2.06 yards per route run and part of a potentially fun game stack.
Marquise Brown ($6,600 vs. Atlanta Falcons) - 26.3% target share and 41.8% air yards share in first six games with Kyler last season.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Matchup: at Los Angeles Chargers
Tight end, again, is fine but not amazing, so game stacks could determine tight end distribution.
Sam LaPorta is maintaining a 22.6% target share since a Week 3 breakout, which has led to 7.8 targets and 53.5 yards per game. The yards rank him fifth among main-slate tight ends.
The Chargers are allowing a top-eight catch rate over expectation to tight ends (+6.7%).
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $5,100
Matchup: vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons allow a league-high 23.6% target-per-route rate to tight ends, and that type of funneling this deep into the season means something.
Plus, targets should flow to Trey McBride either way.
He has a 33.9% target share and 41.5% air yards share in two games without Zach Ertz.
Others to Consider
T.J. Hockenson ($6,600 vs. New Orleans Saints) - 28.9% target share in four games without Justin Jefferson but not the best matchup.
Dalton Schultz ($6,100 at Cincinnati Bengals) - Past four in-game target shares: 31.3%, 29.2%, 20.8%, and 28.9%; Bengals aren't a great TE defense.
Defenses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Salary: $4,000
Matchup: vs. Tennessee Titans
The Buccaneers are not a great pass defense (29th, per numberFire) but remain a stout run defense (2nd).
The Titans are not the most lethal passing offense (20th), and while the team has committed to Will Levis, it wasn't the most ringing endorsement from head coach Mike Vrabel, noting that there is "something there" with Levis.
Levis' passing success rate (36.5%) is worse than the team average (38.5%) and league average (46.1%).
Others to Consider
Baltimore Ravens ($,4600 vs. Cleveland Browns)
Seattle Seahawks ($4,500 vs. Washington Commanders)
Arizona Cardinals ($3,700 vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Be sure to check out all of the Week 10 daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.