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Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Divisional Round Sunday

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin•@skyler_carlin

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Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Divisional Round Sunday

We have some enticing matchups on Sunday in the Divisional Round, beginning with an expected high-scoring showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions at 3 p.m. ET. Then, the Kansas City Chiefs will be the visiting team against the Buffalo Bills to conclude the weekend's games at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- for Sunday's Divisional Round FanDuel main slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Team
Opponent
Implied Total
Spread
Over/Under
Opp D Rank
Opp Pass D Rank
Opp Run D Rank
TBDET21.56.548.525308
DETTB27.5-6.548.515213
KCBUF21.52.545.56619
BUFKC23.5-2.545.54225

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($9,400) -- Quarterbacks shouldn't be capable of doing what Josh Allen did on his 52-yard touchdown run in last week's win. The always-aggressive quarterback has a league-best 16 rushing touchdowns at the position, and 15 of those have come in the red zone. Allen led all quarterbacks with 24.67 FanDuel points per game -- in large part due to his rushing usage -- and he's tallied 25-plus FanDuel points in three of his last four games. No quarterback possesses the ceiling that Allen has, which is why he carries the highest salary at quarterback by a wide margin.

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700) -- It has been far from a smooth campaign for Patrick Mahomes despite the Chiefs being alive in the Divisional Round. Mahomes doesn't have a reliable group of weapons, the Chiefs aren't at home in Sunday's contest, and he has tossed a career-high 14 interceptions. All that being said, Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL. Ceiling games have been few and far between for Mahomes this season, so it's tough to expect him to be an overly popular choice for Sunday's main slate.

Jared Goff ($7,600) -- Jared Goff helped lead the Lions to their first playoff victory in 32 years last week in a narrow win over the Los Angeles Rams. While his performance against the Rams netted only 14.78 FanDuel points, Goff efficiently completed 22 of his 27 attempts for 277 yards and a touchdown. After facing his former team, Goff will square off against a Buccaneers team that is allowing the 6th-most passing FanDuel points (275.72) and the 10th-most expected points added per drop back (-0.01) to quarterbacks, per NextGenStats. It should be noted that the Lions have the highest projected team total (27.5) on Sunday's main slate.

Baker Mayfield ($7,300) -- On the opposite sideline as Goff, Baker Mayfield will look to build off of his performance from last week. Mayfield torched the Philadelphia Eagles to the tune of 337 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, which resulted in 27.08 FanDuel points. Following a matchup with the Eagles, the Lions also present a suspect pass defense. Detroit's defense is surrendering the third-most expected points added per drop back (0.04), the fifth-most passing FanDuel points per drop back (0.48), and owns the seventh-worst success rate (53.7%) against the pass. In a dome, Goff and Mayfield are the quarterbacks I'll likely have the most exposure to for Sunday's main slate.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco ($7,500) -- The Chiefs are relying on Isiah Pacheco to shoulder the majority of the backfield's workload down the stretch. Aside from Week 18 when he sat out due to rest, Pacheco has averaged 17.5 rushing attempts, 83.2 rushing yards, 3.7 targets, and 17.5 FanDuel points per game since the team's bye in Week 10. The Bills can be had on the ground, allowing the 11th-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.23). Buffalo's defense is also giving up the ninth-most receptions (89) and the fourth-most receiving yards (740) to running backs.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300) -- It's been proven that both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can be effective DFS plays at the same time in Detroit's offense. Since the Lions had their bye week in Week 9, Gibbs has averaged 22.1 adjusted opportunities, 76.4 scrimmage yards, and 15.1 FanDuel points per game. In that same span, Montgomery has averaged 20.3 adjusted opportunities, 68.3 scrimmage yards, and 11.5 FanDuel points per game. While the Buccaneers are viewed as a pass-funneling defense, they are permitting the 14th-most adjusted fantasy points per target (1.09) to running backs.

David Montgomery ($7,000) -- Even though Gibbs is the more explosive back, Montgomery gives the Lions a level of physicality at the running back position that is invaluable. Since Week 10, Montgomery leads the Lions in rushing success rate (38.8%), red-zone rushing share (57.9%), rushing attempts per game (16.3), and rushing yards per game (66). The veteran back has found the end zone in four straight games -- and in 8 of his last 10 appearances.

James Cook ($6,800) -- James Cook has seen an increased role down the stretch, averaging 18.4 rushing attempts, 82.4 rushing yards, and 12.8 FanDuel points per game over his last five contests. The dynamic back's ceiling is certainly capped due to Allen commanding the vast majority of Buffalo's red-zone carries. At the same time, the Chiefs are allowing the 6th-most rushing yards over expectation per attempt (0.47) and the 11th-most FanDuel points per target (1.14) to running backs.

Rachaad White ($6,700) -- Volume is rarely an issue for Rachaad White; the Buccaneers don't have any other notable backs on their roster to steal touches. While playing in all 18 games for the Buccaneers thus far, White has tallied 15-plus rushing attempts in 12 of those games. The second-year back has averaged 24.2 adjusted opportunities per game while posting a 78.1% snap share, a 66.7% route participation, a 60% red-zone rushing share, and a solid 13.8 FanDuel points per game. Even with the Lions being stout against running backs, they are giving up the 12th-most yards per route run (YPRR) to running backs (1.11 yards).

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,200) -- Speaking of volume, Amon-Ra St. Brown is pacing the Lions with a healthy 30.6% target share, which is the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. The extremely consistent pass-catcher also leads all receivers on Sunday's main slate with 16.81 FanDuel points per game. In 16 of his 17 games thus far, St. Brown has recorded 95-plus receiving yards and/or one receiving touchdown. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are permitting the fifth-most receptions (240), the third-most receiving yards (3,223), and the eighth-most YPRR (1.75) to wide receivers. St. Brown is one of the players that I'll be trying to fit into the majority of my lineups.

Rashee Rice ($7,800) -- With the Chiefs desperate to find a reliable option in the passing game, Rashee Rice has emerged as the team's No. 1 target for Mahomes. The rookie wideout has logged nine-plus targets in six of his last seven games. Only Deebo Samuel (8.9) has recorded more yards after the catch per reception than Rice (8.4). Being that the Bills surrender the fifth-lowest average depth of target (10.1) to receivers, Rice is in store for plenty of quick passes on Sunday.

Mike Evans ($7,600) -- Mike Evans has shown no signs of slowing down in his 10th season in the league. Despite turning seven targets into only three receptions for 48 yards in last week's win, Evans led Tampa Bay's receivers in air yards (126.6) and expected FanDuel points (11.4). Evans snagged a league-best 13 receiving touchdowns this season, yet he has gone three straight games without finding the end zone. The Lions are surrendering the second-most FanDuel points per target (1.57), the most receiving yards (3,376), the third-most receiving touchdowns (24), and the second-most YPRR (1.91) to wideouts.

Chris Godwin ($6,900) -- After an inconsistent stretch, Chris Godwin has gotten more involved in Tampa Bay's offense in his last five games. Since Week 15, Godwin leads the Buccaneers in target share (24.8%), YPRR (2.55), and FanDuel points per game (13.6). The route-running extraordinaire is dealing with a knee ailment, but he logged a limited practice session on Thursday. Stacking Mayfield with Evans and Godwin is possible since Baker holds the lowest salary of the starting quarterbacks on the main slate.

Others to Consider

  • Josh Reynolds ($6,100) -- Josh Reynolds has the second-highest average depth of target (10.7) and end-zone target share (31.8%) on the Lions. He tied St. Brown for the highest route participation (96.7%) in Detroit's offense during last week's win.
  • Khalil Shakir ($5,900) -- Gabriel Davis has been ruled out for the Bills in Sunday's contest. Khalil Shakir has run a route on at least 82.9% of Buffalo's passing snaps in the last two weeks with Davis sidelined.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,100) -- The Bills are banged up at linebacker and safety, which should allow Travis Kelce to be more effective over the middle of the field. At the same time, the All-Pro tight end fell short of 1,000 receiving yards this season for the first time in his career since 2015 and hasn't scored a touchdown in seven consecutive appearances. Nevertheless, the Chiefs need Kelce to be a prominent piece of their offense alongside Rice. It's tough to avoid Kelce given his long-lasting success, but his slate-high $7,100 salary at the tight end position is hard to justify right now.

Sam LaPorta ($6,600) -- Even with a hobbled knee, Sam LaPorta managed to find the end zone for the Lions last week. Despite dealing with a hyperextended and bruised knee, LaPorta played 80% of Detroit's offense snaps versus the Rams. As a rookie, LaPorta registered the seventh-most expected FanDuel points per game (9.2) at tight end. The Buccaneers are allowing the third-most receptions (104), the third-most receiving yards (1,068), the third-highest target rate (21.4%), and the sixth-most YPRR (1.47) to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid ($6,200) -- Another rookie who has carved out a solid role in his respective offense is Dalton Kincaid. As mentioned above, Davis has already been ruled out for the Bills, which could increase Kincaid's usage. In the last two weeks with Davis inactive, Kincaid owns the second-highest target share (20.9%), the second-highest air yards share (26%), the second-highest average depth of target (10.3), and the most YPRR (2.92) on the Bills.

Cade Otton ($5,300) -- After topping 50-plus receiving yards just once in his first 16 games this season, Cade Otton led the Buccaneers in targets (11), receptions (8), and receiving yards (89) in last week's victory over the Eagles. It's hard to get overly excited about Otton because of his lack of consistency -- and the fact he has to compete for targets with Evans and Godwin. Despite all that being true, Otton does provide potential value and allows us to fit in the high-salaried players at other positions.

Defenses

Buffalo D/ST ($4,000) -- Both defenses involved in the game with the lowest projected total on Sunday's main slate are certainly viable. The defense and special teams unit of the Bills averages a slate-best 9.27 FanDuel points and has tallied 12-plus FanDuel points in two of their last three contests. Buffalo's defense has also forced the third-most turnovers (30) and have posted 10 games this season where they've extracted multiple turnovers.

Kansas City D/ST ($3,800) -- We've seen Allen and Buffalo's offense been on the wrong side of turnover luck this season. The Chiefs' defense and special teams group has been solid as of late, logging seven-plus FanDuel points in four of their last five games. Kansas City's formidable defense has also given up fewer than 20 points in five consecutive contests.


Be sure to check out all of the NFL Divisional Round's daily fantasy football contests on FanDuel, including the $700K NFL Sunday Special!

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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