NCAAF

College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 8/26/23

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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With daily fantasy football so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.

FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests now in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which can include tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.

Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so finding out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.

Week 0's slate isn't full of household names, but the small schools could produce some barnburners even if the powers in action may not be in competitive matches. We'll do our best to lean into variance as these teams start the new year.

Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.

The Slate

Away Team
Home Team
Home Spread
Total
Road Total
Home Total
NavyNotre Dame-20.550.51535.5
UTEPJacksonville St.+1.553.527.526
UMassNew Mexico St.-7.544.518.526
OhioSan Diego St.-2.549.523.526
HawaiiVanderbilt-17.055.519.2536.25
San Jose St.USC-30.566.51848.5
FIULousiana Tech-10.558.52434.5

The large spreads with the three Power 5 teams on the slate certainly complicate things.

USC is expected to trounce San Jose State at home, so it'll really be a question of how long their prolific playmakers stay in the mix.

In Dublin, Notre Dame is a 20.5-point favorite over Navy, but there's a path to compete with the Midshipmen's triple-option attack and Notre Dame having a complete turnover of its offensive staff and personnel this season.

Finally, Vanderbilt hosts lowly Hawaii, but the Commodores -- sporting a win total of 3.5 -- are just 17.0-point favorites, which is a "normal-sized" projected blowout. Their starters could stay viable.

We'll want to learn up quickly on players from UTEP, Jacksonville State, FIU, and Louisiana Tech. Their tight spreads with totals exceeding 50.0 points are exactly what we typically look to stack in a daily-fantasy format.

Quarterbacks

Sam Hartman ($11,400): Notre Dame was 92nd in passing yards per game last year (207.2), but that should change entirely in 2023. Hartman transferred from Wake Forest off a year where he compiled 3,701 passing yards and 38 touchdowns. Navy surrendered the fourth-most passing yards per attempt (8.9 YPA) in all of FBS last year, so I could really see Hartman and the Irish pouring it on to establish rhythm and confidence with their new top-shelf QB.

Hank Bachmeier ($9,500): Though a flameout at Boise State, Bachmeier could have loads of success chewing up Conference USA at LA Tech this season. The senior posted 3,079 passing yards and 20 touchdowns on a 62.8% completion rate at BSU in 2021. The Bulldogs were 27th in passing yards per game last year (271.9), so they brought in Hank to sling it. He's not a dual-threat option, but we'll forgive that as a huge piece of Tech's 34.5-point implied team total.

Brayden Schager ($7,200): Hawaii runs a run-and-shoot offense, which should be excellent for DFS. They're just not very good. Nonetheless, Schager chucked at least 45 passes in four of his last five games of 2022, and he projects to be trailing here as a 17.0-point underdog. On this wild slate with several co-starters at QB, he's easy to justify as a returning option projected for volume, and it's possible his efficiency improves in Tommy Chang's second year at the helm.

Others to Consider

Caleb Williams ($12,800): It's tempting to roster the best quarterback in college football, but he'll be limited to a half if USC rolls SJSU as expected. That half could produce five total touchdowns, so I'll still have some exposure here.

AJ Swann ($10,000): His practice battle was a bit too close for comfort in a game where Hawaii would represent an excellent opportunity to play both guys. He could light up the Warriors (8.3 YPA allowed in 2022) if given the full reigns, though.

Chevan Cordeiro ($8,000): A similar process play to Schager, but the 30.5-point spread could mean the Spartans wave the white flag before a full day of work. Plus, USC's defense -- though poor at a Power 5 level -- is one of the best that he'll see all season.

Grayson James ($7,800): On the other side of Bachmeier, James can provide access to this game at signal-caller, as well. He averaged 32.2 attempts per game last year while adding 4.8 on the ground.

Running Backs

Audric Estime ($9,500): With Hartman in town, Notre Dame's insane rate of rushing (59.7% rate in 2022) might decrease, but Estime is now alone as the Golden Domers' top guy. He was hyper-efficient in 2023 (8.6 YPC) but maxed out at 20 carries in a single game. Logan Diggs transferred to LSU, and Chris Tyree is now listed as a wideout, so Estime should have almost all of the touchdown equity for as long as this game stays competitive.

Sieh Bangura ($8,700): Bangura's 54.2% rush share for Ohio last season is comfortably the best of any back in a reasonable game environment on this slate, but he comes with a noted concern. The Aztecs' defense allowed just 3.5 YPC last year (23rd in FBS), so it'll be tough sledding for him to make use of his workload. He's still not too high-salaried for his lion's share of goal-line work.

Deion Hankins ($7,800): Hankins and Ronald Awatt split 74.1% of UTEP's carries last season, and Awatt's transition to the San Francisco 49ers should leave Hankins in a prime spot to over half of the backfield's carries in 2023. Despite a 53.5-point total, it's somewhat difficult to discuss this game since it's Jacksonville State's first as an FBS program, which led to a lack of available stats from their players' 2022 seasons. Hankins is a fairly sure thing inside of this one, though.

Others to Consider

MarShawn Lloyd ($8,000): Lloyd transferred from South Carolina in the offseason, and the former SEC standout likely should pull away from senior journeyman Austin Jones ($10,200) throughout USC's season. If they split first-half work, I'm not sure how either pay off their salary when USC passed it 53.5% of the time last year.

Jaylon Armstead ($7,200): SDSU has produced workhorse running backs in the past, so perhaps Armstead becomes one with speedster Jordyn Byrd now playing for the Pittsburgh Steelers. At 7.4 carries per game, he trailed only Byrd (7.6) on the roster a year ago.

Kairee Robinson ($6,600): Robinson handled 66.1% of the Spartans' carries a year ago, so this salary is obviously reflective of an uncompetitive enviornment against Southern Cal. SJSU should be forced to throw often, but a touchdown would still make the senior a worthwhile dart.

Ron Wiggins ($5,700): Wiggins and Malik Jackson ($5,300) are listed as co-starters for Jacksonville State, and the Gamecocks are definitely a rush-first program under Rich Rodriguez. Three different tailbacks last year topped 45 rushing yards per game, but Wiggins is the only returning member of the trio.

Wide Receivers

Tyrin Smith ($9,000): Returning top wideouts are worth their weight in gold in Week 0 DFS, and Smith absolutely is one for the Miners. He saw the most targets per game last year (10.3) on the slate, which was good for a 34.7% share overall. It's tough to stack this game with the Gamecocks such an unknown on the other side, but Smith is an excellent, high-floor individual play.

Smoke Harris ($8,600): The Harris tandem that led LA Tech's wideout corps has been split up with Tre transferring to Ole Miss, but Smoke should be the benefactor in DFS. Smoke already had a 24.6% target share with Tre (25.4%) soaking up a good amount of work. Bachmeier should also lift this offense beyond its 2022 heights.

Jonah Panoke ($6,400): I didn't plan on targeting Hawaii Warriors, but their passing game is in a high-volume spot, and Panoke should be the lead wideout this year with Zion Bowens now playing for the Washington Commanders. Kansas transfer Steven McBride ($5,000) appears to be the 6'2" senior's closest competition for targets.

Others to Consider

Will Sheppard ($8,500): Sheppard has as much of a case as Smith and Harris. The trio are projected well over a 30.0% target share with uncertainty across nearly the entirety of the rest of the slate.

Sam Wiglusz ($7,800): Wigulsz (23.6% target share in 2022) is the clear returning top option for the Ohio Bobcats. The lone drawback for him -- beyond a smaller target share -- is the opposing San Diego State pass defense, which was 23rd in passing YPA (6.5) last season.

Michael Jackson III ($6,500): Lincoln Riley teams are notoriously terrible for wideouts in DFS, shrinking the prolific Jordan Addison to just a 21.3% target share last year. Jackson could work in earlier due to Tahj Washington's potential injury, but he's buried deep enough on the depth chart to potentially play in a blowout, too.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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