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College Football Betting Picks for Week 8

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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College Football Betting Picks for Week 8

Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

Week 7's stacked slate lived up to the hype, featuring some thrilling wins for the Oregon Ducks and LSU Tigers. There's more where that came from as three top-25 matchups are on Week 8's slate, including two top-11 matchups in the SEC.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Best Bets for Week 8

No. 6 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals

Over 61.5 Points (-108)

A 61.5-point total is more than enough to scare many off from the over. But this is a matchup between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes and Louisville Cardinals -- two teams who are logging over 30 points per game (PPG) -- should have more than enough punch. The Canes lead the nation with 46.0 PPG while the Cards are in the top 26% with 31.0 PPG.

Louisville's defense isn't posing much of a threat, surrendering 382.0 yards per game (bottom 53%) and 5.7 yards per play (bottom 56%). The pass defense is alarming, giving up 7.8 yards per passing attempt (bottom 65%). Pro Football Focus also have the Cardinals ranked 93rd in coverage grade.

This could frankly be the worst possible matchup in the entire nation for Louisville. Miami is led by Cam Ward, who holds the fourth-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy (+650). Ward is second in the nation with 2,219 passing yards and fourth with 10.4 yards per passing attempt. Leading wideout Xavier Restrepo has 585 receiving yards (ninth-most), as well. This has led to one of the nation's most potent passing attacks, averaging 415.2 passing yards per game (most) and 10.3 yards per passing attempt (fourth-most). The Hurricanes probably aren't going to shy away from airing it out against a struggling secondary.

As the 33.5 point total for Miami suggests, the Canes should do plenty to contribute to the over. This offense alone gives me enough confidence for over 61.5 points. In fact, College Football Nerds' model also has the Miami with 40.4 projected points. The model is giving the Cardinals 29.0 projected points, too, putting this total at 69.4 points.

Total Match Points

Over

While the Hurricanes' offense ranks 3rd in ESPN's SP+ after Week 7, the defense looks far more vulnerable as the 34th-best unit in defensive SP+. Similar to Miami, the Cardinals love to throw it with a 51.4% pass play rate (top 34%) and 9.1 yards per passing attempt (top 9%). Quarterback Tyler Shough hasn't been too shabby, either, carrying a PFF 85.7 player grade and 87.9 pass grade.

The Canes rank 14th in PFF coverage grade and are holding opponents to 6.4 yards per passing attempt (top 24%), but we should question who they've faced. The Virginia Tech Hokies have been the only team in the top 50 of PFF pass grade (47th) that Miami has faced. The Hokies are logging only 7.2 yards per passing attempt this season (bottom 51%), though. Louisville's passing attack is on a completely different level with the 10th-best PFF pass grade.

This is a matchup between two of the top-10 teams in PFF pass grade. With each team carrying the ability to hit explosive passes paired with taking on suspect secondaries, we should get plenty of points. The biggest concern for the over is each team sitting in the top 30% for the slowest tempos across college football.

No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee Moneyline (+120)
Under 56.5 Points (-110)

Saturday's matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers has about all the stakes you could ask for in a Week 8 contest. The Volunteers are on the outside looking in for a CFP berth, carrying +100 odds to make the playoffs. Alabama feels a lot more secure with -350 odds, but that would surely drop with another loss under its belt.

Neither team has performed well over the last couple of weeks. After their shocking loss against the Vanderbilt Commodores, the Crimson Tide barely squeaked by with a two-point win over the South Carolina Gamecocks as 20+ point favorites last week. Tennessee had its own deflating loss on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 6, which was followed by a 6-point win as 14-point favorites against the Florida Gators.

Perhaps the biggest factor in this matchup will be the Volunteers' absurd home atmosphere in Neyland Stadium. In what's expected to be a tight game, this could make the difference, similar to what we saw in Ohio State-Oregon in Week 7.

numberFire's game projections have Alabama winning 26.7-26.1 -- that's a razor-thin margin. College Football Nerds' model is bringing back a more interesting result, giving Tennessee a 19.2-13.7 win.

Moneyline

Tennessee

Getting the Vols with plus odds at home feels like the way to go. The Tide have been far from perfect, ranking 19th in defensive SP+. It's been tough sledding for UT's offense recently, posting only 20.7 PPG and 4.8 yards per play. Compare that to an offense that racked up 63.7 PPG to start the season. Facing real competition has caused this offense to plummet, but there should be opportunities to score against Bama's defense.

Allowing 12.0 yards per passing attempt in the Vanderbilt Commodores' 40-35 win is a sore memory for the Tide. This is where the Vols have the best chance to move the ball as Alabama ranks 23rd in PFF coverage grade compared to 8th in run defense grade. Despite a 36.8% pass play rate (bottom 7%), Tennessee is posting 8.2 yards per passing attempt (top 20%). When the Volunteers do throw it, they are airing it out downfield. However, quarterback Nico Iamaleava needs to find his footing. After recording a 90.7 PFF pass grade in Week 1, he's been under 70.0 over the last five games. However, his 66.2 pass grade from Week 7 was his best since the season-opener. Perhaps, he's back on schedule.

Similar to Tennessee, the Crimson Tide like to run the ball often with a 57.3% run play rate (top 26%). This is where the Vols' ferocious defense comes into play, holding opponents to only 12.2 PPG (fifth-fewest) and 3.9 yards per play (second-fewest). According to College Football Insiders' team expected points added (EPA) per play, this will be the best defense Bama has seen. Tennessee is second in overall EPA per play allowed, first against the run, and seventh against the pass. Georgia -- who was probably the Tide's prior best challenge -- rank 13th in overall EPA per play allowed, 6th against the run, and 20th against the pass.

For once, we could see this offense greatly limited. Adding noise from rabid Volunteer fans only helps the case. We finally saw Alabama's offense look human last week with 27 points and 5.1 yards per play. This was mostly driven by South Carolina holding the Crimson Tide to 2.7 yards per rushing attempt. UT's run defense is even better -- perhaps the best in the country at this point.

Game projections like the under, and I agree considering the run defenses in this matchup. Each team has the ability to take away the opposing offense's strength. Explosive plays could be the primary driver for each offense, but will that be consistent enough to hit the over? Probably not. The lower the score, probably the better for the Vols. They don't want to get into a Iamaleava vs. Jalen Milroe battle. With the fifth-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy (+1400), Milroe would probably beat out the first-time start for Tennessee.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 1 Texas Longhorns

Texas -3.5 (-114)

The Texas Longhorns are passing the eye test as the nation's best team, carrying the shortest odds to win the national championship (+390). Week 8 is providing another clash between national title hopefuls as the Georgia Bulldogs are visiting town with the third-shortest line to win it all (+450).

Georgia is going to need all hands on deck as a 3.5-point underdog while the Longhorns hold the fourth-most EPA per play on offense and give up the third-fewest EPA per play on defense. For comparison, the Bulldogs rank 8th in the category on offense and 13th on defense.

This has not been the Georgia of old, which won back-to-back national titles. This defense is alarming by the Bulldogs' standards, giving up 5.5 yards per play (top 50%), 3.9 yards per rushing attempt (top 31%), and 7.4 yards per passing attempt (bottom 45%). None of these marks scream dominant last past defenses at Georgia.

We should especially pay attention to this pass defense. It ranks 64th in PFF coverage grade, and Texas is posting 9.6 yards per passing attempt (top 6%) and 306.5 passing yards per game (top 8%). This passing attack is loaded with NFL talent, including offensive tackle Kelvin Banks (6th), quarterback Quinn Ewers (12th), and wide receiver Isaiah Bond (24th) who are all among the top-25 prospects in NFL Mock Draft Database's 2025 Consensus Big Board. We shouldn't overlook key pieces like tight end Gunnar Helm (73.4 PFF receiving grade) and true freshman receiver Ryan Wingo (79.8 PFF receiving grade) either.

Here's perhaps the biggest concern for this matchup: the Bulldogs' pass rush. Georgia is 62nd in PFF pass rush grade while the Longhorns boast the top pass block grade in America. Ewers, who is tied for the sixth-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy (+1500), could have all day in the pocket.

Spread

Texas

I'm still a bit leery about Texas' defense due to its schedule thus far. With the sixth-best offense in ESPN's SP+ rankings, the Bulldogs will be a tough challenge. Plus, quarterback Carson Beck is fighting for the Heisman himself (+1500 odds).

Georgia is in the top 18% of yards per passing attempt and passing yards per game. The Longhorns' most notable opponents up to this point -- Oklahoma and Michigan -- are both 99th or worse in PFF pass grade. Mississippi State holds the best pass grade Texas has seen (ranked 17th), but the Bulldogs are 76th in ESPN's SP+ rankings and 61st in offensive SP+.

We could get some serious points in this one, but I'm not sure how the Bulldogs can stop the Longhorns' buzzsaw of an offense. Plus, Texas gets to be home. Georgia is 1-5 against the spread while the Longhorns are 5-1. If that wasn't enough, the Bulldogs are expected to be without their starting center, starting tight guard, starting inside linebacker, second and third-string running backs, and star defensive end Mykel Williams has been on limited snaps. I'll lay the points on Texas.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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