College Football Betting Picks for Saturday 11/25/23

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Smell it? That's Rivalry Week in the air.

It feels as if just the other day we were preparing for Week 0, scouring through an abbreviated slate for any perceived value. Fast-forward to now, and the contentious regular season finale has arrived.

Naturally, CFB Week 13 is led by "The Game"; for the 119th head-to-head meeting in history, the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes will rumble this Saturday at the Big House. With the archrivals sitting at No. 2 (OSU) and No. 3 (U-M) in the CFP rankings, have the stakes here ever been higher?

Also in the early window, we will see the Governor's Cup between the Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals. From there, I will have my eyes on the Iron Bowl and Apple Cup for the remainder of Saturday. Of course, now at No. 4, the Washington Huskies cannot afford to slip up.

Oh, and the Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen are going at it in Foxborough this weekend; I should not have to tell you what play best suits that service academy tilt.

Let's dive into the upcoming college football schedule, keeping an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable lines in traditional betting markets.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Betting Picks (11/25/23)

Governor's Cup: Kentucky Wildcats at (#10) Louisville Cardinals

• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: LOU -7.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: UK +220/LOU -275
• Total: 50.5

When it comes to the in-state rivalry between Kentucky and Louisville, followers of the Wildcats will be the first to remind you of their current four-game winning streak in this head-to-head series. Although they are in two different conferences, the cities of Louisville and Lexington sit just over 75 miles apart. With that, can the Cardinals finally reclaim bragging rights in the "Bluegrass" state?

Led by Louisville local boy Jeff Brohm at head coach, the former star quarterback has done wonders since taking over his alma mater this year. Already, the Cardinals -- currently sitting at 10-1 overall -- have won their most games in a single season since 2013. Their efforts in 2023 have clinched Louisville a spot in the upcoming ACC title game against the Florida State Seminoles (where FSU is laying 4.5 points).

Kentucky is wrapping up Season 11 under head coach Mark Stoops, who of course is part of the coveted Stoops football family. This season, the Wildcats reached as high as No. 20 on the AP poll (back in early October), but they've dropped five of their last six contests since then. Still, can UK rally in a rivalry bid?

Best Bet: Louisville -7.5 (-112)

In the land of bourbon and mandolins, I like the Cardinals to snap Kentucky's four-game heater in the Governor's Cup series. The Wildcats have appeared one-dimensional on offense through the second half of the season, scoring just 20 PPG over the past two months of action. On the flip side, Louisville is a top-30 scoring (33.2 PPG) team in FBS. Again, at home, I am on the Cardinals to cover.

Simply, I believe Louisville can win by at least two scores this Saturday. Other than a stinker at the Pittsburgh Panthers, the Cards have found a way to win in every game thus far. Through their 10 Ws this season, Louisville has displayed an 18-point average margin of victory.

Additionally, Louisville gets the nod in the quarterback battle. Cardinals signal-caller Jack Plummer -- who has no relation to Jake, ASU fans -- is completing 65.4% of his passes on 301 attempts with 19 touchdowns. Plummer also has the benefit of leaning on dynamic running back Jawhar Johnson (6.7 yards per carry). For Kentucky, quarterback Dennis Leary shows a completion clip of only 56.4% on 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt.

Iron Bowl: (#8) Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers

• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: ALA -14.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: ALA -670/AUB +470
• Total: 48.5

Ah, yes -- the old Iron Bowl. Truly, anything can happen when the Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers get together. As hated territorial rivals, this game annually serves as the "Cotton" state's most cherished sporting event, although it has not been played in the capital city of Birmingham since 1998.

Alabama and Auburn have been competing on the gridiron since 1893 (around the time automobiles were first being powered by gasoline), although the two schools took a 41-year hiatus from each other between 1907-1948. Either way, the in-state rivals have faced off in 87 total meetings with the Crimson Tide holding the advantage at 49-37-1; that includes each of the past three years going in favor of 'Bama.

Overall, the Tigers and Tide have gone on to produce some of college football's most memorable moments, such as Bear Bryant's 315th win (1981), a 24-point comeback by Cam Newton (2010), Chris Davis' "Kick Six" (2013), a quadruple-overtime bid (2022) and many more. Back in the present, what will we be in store for this Saturday at the 88th Iron Bowl? As always, "Roll Tide" and "War Eagle" will both be well represented.

Best Bet: Alabama -14.5 (-105)

It may be daunting to lay 14.5 points with the Tide in Auburn, but Alabama really is the much more competitive side in 2023. 'Bama is currently positioned eighth on the CFP poll while showing up 12th (21.05) on numberFire's power rankings. For the Tigers, they are much further down nF's list at 38th (7.71).

At quarterback, I have been thoroughly impressed with Jalen Milroe's progression as a passer with the Tide. Taking over for former Heisman winner Bryce Young, Milroe has improved as the season has moved along. Right now, his 31 total scores (19 passing and 12 rushing) is one of the top marks in FBS.

Obviously, I am expecting head coach Nick Saban's bunch to win this rivalry clash by at least two scores. Considering 'Bama is holding opponents to just 17.4 PPG in 2023, I believe they stand a great shot to cover 14 with a hook -- roll Tide.

Apple Cup: Washington State Cougars at (#4) Washington Huskies

• Time: 4 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: WASH -16.5
• Moneyline: WSU +550/WASH -820
• Total: 67.5

The Pacific Northwest -- known for its cleansing rains, lush greenery, Jimi Hendrix and crisp apples.

In this year's 115th Apple Cup game, a national audience will tune in to see No. 4 Washington take on the rival Washington State Cougars. Of course, UDub's Michael Penix Jr. is a Heisman finalist; he currently shows the third-shortest odds in the market at FanDuel Sportsbook. Additionally, the Huskies are in line to qualify for their first College Football Playoff since the 2016-17 season.

Let the record reflect that Washington State is certainly no slouch. Wazzu -- sitting at 5-6 straight up (SU) -- may not be a national title contender like Washington (the Huskies are priced at +1300 odds to go all the way), but they are led by a talented signal-caller in their own right: Cameron Ward. The dual-threat quarterback has averaged 310.8 passing yards per game for WSU while producing 8 rushing scores in 2023.

UDub has won the Apple Cup in 11 of the past 13 meetings. Further out, the Huskies hold a 75-33-6 all-time advantage over the Cougars. Despite sharing statehood, the communities of Seattle and Pullman are greatly displaced from one another and don't really have much in common -- that certainly resonates when these "Evergreen" institutions get together.

Best Bet: Under 67.5 (-110)

Like most, I expect the Huskies to handle their business at home this weekend, but I am just not sure by how much. Washington is still undefeated at 11-0 thus far, scoring an electric 39.3 PPG -- Penix, along with receivers Rome Odunze (11 rec. TD) and Ja'lynn Polk (17.1 yards per rec.), is largely to thank for that. However, they have won each of their past two games by just a single score. Do the Huskies return to dominance against an in-state rival?

Washington is laying 16.5 points against the Cougs, which sits just outside the two-score threshold. For me, that is a pesky number to work with. I don't love the Huskies ATS this week, but I am also not keen to bet on their opposition. At that, I think there is value in going under the towering total of 67.5.

I wanted to stay chalky here, but I have been eating tums all week in preparation for the upcoming holiday. All joviality aside, taking the under simply feels wiser than UDub -16.5.

I respect that WSU can also put up points in a hurry, but the Cougars will see a significant talent jump this Saturday compared to their last two opponents: the Colorado Buffaloes and California Golden Bears. Considering 67.5 points is the second-largest total number of Rivalry Week, there is ample room to go under. When looking the game projections on numberFire, my under play is supported; their model shows an estimated winning score of 40.77-20.82 (sum of 61.59) for the Huskies.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.