College Basketball National Championship Odds: Three Teams Are Closing on Purdue
College basketball's conference play is a couple of weeks in, which has caused big shifts in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds. Everything from conference outrights to Final Four odds have been impacted by early league play.
FanDuel's college basketball national championship odds may be the most impacted lines. A handful of familiar teams remain at the top of the favorites, but several powerhouses have seen their odds lengthen due to poor play in conference matchups.
With that said, let's check out the latest odds for the 2023-24 national title. Which teams look like they could cut down the nets in March? Several squads could also provide some great value with about two months before the postseason tips off.
College Basketball National Championship Odds
Purdue Boilermakers (+800)
Since our last check in on the national championship odds, the favorite has not changed. Purdue still holds the shortest line to win it all thanks to their 16-2 record while ranking second in KenPom.
The Boilermakers are tracking to be a near-lock to win the Big Ten with -330 odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball conference odds. With 22.9 points per game (PPG) and 11.1 rebounds per game (RPG), Zach Edey remains one of the nation's most dominant players and is pulling away to repeat as the John R. Wooden Award winner -- awarded to college basketball's most outstanding player.
According to EvanMiya, Edey is the country's most valuable player with a 11.27 Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR). Frankly, this isn't even close -- with Edey leading BPR by over 2.0 points.
Guard play could finally get Purdue over the national title hump. Braden Smith (12.0 PPG), Lance Jones (11.6 PPG), and Fletcher Loyer (11.4 PPG) form a backcourt that is full of double-digit scorers. Smith also has the fourth-best BPR in college basketball (8.65).
Tightening the defense could be the Boilermakers' focus from here on out as they have KenPom's 2nd-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th-best adjusted defensive efficiency.
Connecticut Huskies (+1000)
Perhaps Purdue's biggest challenger could be the defending national champs -- the Connecticut Huskies. Similar to the Boilermakers, UConn is pulling ahead as the favorite to win the Big East (-250). The Huskies also have one of the nation's best players in Donovan Clingan (13.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG and third-best BPR in the nation).
Even with Clingan missing nearly a month of action, UConn has won six straight games. Clingan just returned from injury on January 17. The Huskies are rolling as the AP Top 25 Poll's top team and look as dangerous as ever.
Connecticut certainly seems to have scoring covered with KenPom's 3rd-best adjusted offensive efficiency, but the defense needs to improve as they sport the 33rd-best defensive efficiency.
Arizona Wildcats (+1000)
Arizona has seen their national championship odds lengthen due to recent struggles. Following concerning losses against Stanford (83rd in KenPom) and Washington State (61st in KenPom) since December 31, the Wildcats have fallen to No. 12 in the AP Poll.
Some of Arizona's current issues include shooting efficiency, such as ranking outside the top 50 in two-point percentage. The Wildcats may want to alter their shot selection to more three-point tries as they rank in the 93rd percentile of three-point percentage.
They continue to play at a blistering pace (ninth-quickest). While this can be an advantage, when the shots are not falling, Arizona is susceptible to some bad losses. The defense is in the bottom 34% of two-point and three-point attempts allowed per contest. The Wildcats must address some issues if they are to truly contend in March.
Houston Cougars (+1000)
Early Big 12 play has not been kind to Houston as they are 2-2 in league play. The Cougars are still in the hunt in the super competitive Big 12, listed with the second-shortest odds to win the conference (+270).
Houston possesses an elite defense with the top adjusted defensive efficiency in college basketball. They also lead the nation in PPG allowed and in opponent field goal percentage (FG%) and two-point percentage. With such a fearsome defense, how are the Cougars not leading the ranks?
The offense -- at times -- really struggles. However, Wednesday's dominant 77-54 win over Texas Tech was encouraging. This could be Houston's formula going forward as they leaned into their exceptional guard play, with Jamal Shead erupting for 29 points. Plus, L.J. Cryer remains a dangerous threat as the team's leading scorer at 15.2 PPG. Shead is college basketball's second-most valuable player, according to EvanMiya.
North Carolina Tar Heels (+1500)
Now, let's get into the schools that were not among the favorites in our last odds update but are climbing the ranks. North Carolina -- a perennial Blue Blood -- is used to the national spotlight. The Tar Heels are looking like a national title contender once again.
Since December 16's loss against Kentucky, UNC has ripped off seven consecutive wins. Since coach Hubert Davis took over in 2021, the Tar Heels have regularly had talented scorers, but defense has been a different story (46th in efficiency last season).
An improved defense could be North Carolina's best hope for a title. The unit has held opponents to only 61.7 PPG during the winning streak, which has caused the Tar Heels' defensive efficiency to rise to the fifth-best mark in the nation.
Auburn Tigers (+1500)
Auburn is another team that's hot and rising in the national ranks. The Tigers have swooped into the title picture while becoming the favorite to win the SEC (+140).
Good luck finding a team that's playing better than Auburn is right now. They are on a 10-game winning streak with an averaging margin of 21.7 points. The Tigers feature a balanced team that ranks ninth in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Plus, they have one of the best frontcourts in America with Johni Broome (15.4 PPG; 8.6 RPG) and Jaylin Williams (12.5 PPG; 5.3 RPG).
Others
Behind Auburn are a trio of Blue Bloods in Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky -- all listed at +2000 to win it all. Tennessee is also +2000 as they rank sixth in KenPom.
Duke (+2000), Alabama (+2200), and Baylor (+3300) could be intriguing schools to keep an eye on. The Bears are establishing themselves as a contender in the Big 12 with a 14-3 record. Following rough starts, the Blue Devils and Crimson Tide are hitting their stride and are within KenPom's top 10 best teams.
With about two months before the postseason, it feels like UConn has the best chance of surpassing Purdue as the national title favorite. Several rising teams -- such as Auburn at +1500 or Duke at +2000 -- also hold plenty of appeal.
Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.
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