College Basketball Betting Picks for Wednesday 11/8/23: Mid-Major Darlings Square Off

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

No. 10 Florida Atlantic Owls at Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Loyola +6.5 (-110)

The 10th-ranked Florida Atlantic Owls carry sky-high expectations into the 2023-24 season after winning 35 games and making the Final Four last year. FAU returns 90.3% of their minutes from last year's team -- the third-most in Division I, per Bart Torvik.

That includes their pair of All-Conference First-Team guards, Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin. Davis (13.8 points) and Martin (13.4) led the team in scoring last season and will likely serve as the Owls' primary offensive options tonight. March Madness fanatics likely remember Martin from the 26 points he scored in FAU's Final Four loss to San Diego State, but this is a deep team through and through. Nine players averaged at least 15 minutes per game last season.

Loyola is coming off a horrific 10-win season in 2022-23. However, the Ramblers return 72.7% of last year's minutes (38th) and added a number of solid transfers. Leading scorers Philip Alston (14.6 points), Braden Norris (10.9), and Ben Schwieger (9.2) are back -- joined by a pair of All-Ivy League transfers, Dame Adelekun (13.8) and Greg Dolan (13.3).

Breaking down the matchup, FAU is the more established team, but Loyola's new-look roster matches up well with them.

FAU's four-guard offense propelled them to a 22nd ranking in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency (115.1) last season, with 43.9% of the Owls' field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc last season (35th in the country).

Loyola will need to key in on the three tonight after they allowed opponents to shoot 34% from deep last season. They finished 262nd in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric (108.8), but the offseason additions (specifically Adelekun's 2.0 blocks per game) should help them improve on that end. Bart Torvik has them at No. 45 in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.9) for the upcoming season.

Offensively for the Ramblers, Loyola attempted 40.2% of their shots from deep last season, albeit hitting at just a 33.4% clip (221st). They'll get a nice boost from distance via newcomer Greg Dolan. Dolan notably shot 42.5% from three last season. Despite widespread offensive struggles, Loyola posted a 56.5% assist rate (51st) and a 52.9% effective field goal percentage (56th).

Defensively, FAU finished 34th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency (95.7). They did an incredible job stifling their opposition's ball movement as they allowed the second-lowest assist rate (35.1%) in the country.

Despite lacking overwhelming size, the Owls were a sound rebounding team. Led by seven-footer Vladislav Goldin (6.5 rebounds per game), FAU ranked 17th in rebound rate (54.2%).

That's where Loyola would've gotten into trouble last year. The Ramblers had a rebound rate (48.9%) outside the top 250, but 6'8" transfer Adelekun and his 7.2 rebounds per game should help them improve on the glass.

Take secret scrimmages with a grain of salt, but FAU reportedly lost by 16 points to North Carolina -- though they were without Alijah Martin. Loyola didn't play nearly as tough of competition as FAU, but the Ramblers won their lone exhibition, 104-44, against Trinity Christian College.

Overall, KenPom has Loyola at No. 74 and Florida Atlantic at No. 36.

I won't be shocked to see the favorites win tonight, but Loyola is a much better (and more experienced) team than it was last year. Coupled with this game's close proximity to Loyola's campus, I like the Ramblers to keep things tight.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Arizona State +3.5 (-110)

The Arizona State Sun Devils (78th on KenPom) square off with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (31st) in a neutral-site matchup in Chicago. While the Bulldogs are favored in the game, I think the spread is a bit too big.

Mississippi State returns 74.7% of their minutes (32nd) from last year's 21-13 team. The Bulldogs lost in the First Four but still finished 53rd in KenPom. They return all five starters and their top-five returning scorers. Leading scorer and rebounder Tolu Smith (15.7 points; 8.5 rebounds) was the lone Bulldog to earn All-SEC honors, but he'll be out until conference play with a foot injury.

Arizona State, meanwhile returns just 29.6% of last year's minutes. The Sun Devils, too, made the First Four last season, but they played their way into the Big Dance, losing in the first round to TCU. They return just one starter and two other rotation players from last year's squad. Their lone returning starter is Frankie Collins -- a 6'1" guard who averaged 9.7 points (fifth on the team) and 4.3 assists (first) per game.

These are two teams whose identities were formed on the defensive end last season. Mississippi State finished ninth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency (91.4) while Arizona ranked 35th (95.8). Neither team pushed the pace particularly well, but the Bulldogs' 336th-ranked adjusted tempo (63.6) was a hallmark of their philosophy.

For Mississippi State, I'm pessimistic they'll be able to generate offense without Smith considering they finished 176th in adjusted offensive efficiency (104.8) with him last season.

Senior guards Dashawn Davis (8.7 points) and Shakeel Moore (9.8) flashed in spurts last season, but they both shot under 42% from the field. JUCO transfer Lorenzo Fort averaged 24.9 points and shot 45.2% from three last season, but it's unclear how much he'll play given the returning guards -- or how well his scoring will transfer over to the D1 level.

Forward Cameron Matthew is a force on defense (2.1 stocks per game), but he was essentially a nonfactor on offense. He averaged just 6.9 points per game last season. Even D.J. Jeffries' 8.8 points per game come with an asterisk of a 35.1% field goal percentage.

Arizona State had question marks before they lost forward Alonzo Gaffney (16.8 minutes per game) to a foot sprain.

Collins will be the focal point, but only Jamiya Neal (4.9 points) joins him as a healthy returner. Both guards played big minutes in last year's NCAA Tournament, so ASU at least has their backcourt set.

ASU will likely rely on a trio of transfers to carry a major scoring load. Senior guard Jose Perez averaged 18.9 points per game at Manhatten last season, but he's on his fifth school in six years and hasn't shot above 40% since the 2018-19 season.

JUCO transfer Malachi Davis averaged 17.1 points per game last season, but he's never played at this level before.

Perhaps the biggest X-factor for ASU -- and why I like them to cover tonight -- is big man Shawn Philips Jr. A 7'0" transfer from LSU, Philips is a former four-star recruit who averaged just 7.5 minutes per game last season. However, he flashed in his lone game with 20-plus minutes, recording a double-double in the SEC Tournament.

There's a lot up in the air for both of these squads. Even if Mississippi State wins outright, I don't see them having enough offense to win by more than a bucket. While Arizona State is inexperienced, they at least return their point guard from an offense that was serviceable last season.

Canisius Golden Griffins at Syracuse Orange

Under 152.5 (-110)

We close things out in upstate New York, where the Syracuse Orange will be coached by someone not named Jim Boeheim for the first time in 47 years. While Boeheim and his patented 2-3 zone are out, long-time assistant (and new head coach) Adrian Autry should be more than capable of keeping Canisius' offense under wraps.

While 'Cuse will play a lot more man-to-man this season, they had to call on their old friend, the 2-3, late in their 83-72 win over New Hampshire on Monday night. The Orange held New Hampshire to just 36.8% shooting and forced 16 turnovers.

Surrendering 72 points to a New Hampshire team that ranked 319th in adjusted offensive efficiency (97.4) last season isn't great, but it likely inflated tonight's total. New Hampshire attempted 68 shots in Monday's game -- something Canisius did just five times last season.

The Golden Griffins finished 2023 ranked 248th in adjusted offensive efficiency (101.6) and 163rd in adjusted tempo (67.6). They shot just 42.2% overall (302nd) and 34.7% from three (153rd).

As if their offense was bad enough last season, the Golden Griffins graduated two of their three leading scorers while another (Jacco Fritz) transferred.

Their defensive efficiency was just as bad (249th), but Syracuse's offense isn't too big of a threat. The Orange ranked 81st in adjusted offensive efficiency (110.5) last season, but they were 170th in adjusted tempo (67.3). However, they lost two of their three leading scorers to the transfer portal.

Sophomore guard Judah Mintz (16.3 points per game) scored 20 in the season-opener, but he's their only established offensive threat. Transfer JJ Starling (11.2) was expected to take on a larger scoring load but shot just 3 for 13 in Monday's opener.

I just don't see enough offensive firepower on Syracuse's end for them to shoulder the lion's share of the load toward pushing this game over. More suspect defense from the Orange could let Canisius put up points, but the offensive talent from the Golden Griffins is severely lacking.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.