College Basketball Betting Picks for Thursday 12/21/23

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

No. 9 Kentucky at Louisville

Under 156.5 (-110)

The Kentucky Wildcats will make the short trip from Lexington to take on the Louisville Cardinals for the 56th time in program history.

The current iteration of this in-state rivalry is a bit tamer than we are used to. Kentucky is fresh off a victory against the ninth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels and have high hopes for this season. Louisville, meanwhile, is struggling with a 5-6 record and starting to look more and more like a football school.

With that being said, a matchup with the Wildcats, especially on their home court, will always be marked on the calendar for Louisville fans.

We should expect Louisville, who has a better adjusted defensive efficiency rank (187th on Bart Torvik) than adjusted offensive efficiency rank (190th), to bring out all the defensive stops tonight in an effort to curb Kentucky's firepower offense.

The Wildcats are averaging 88.3 points per game this season (in regulation). Led by Antonio Reeves, Reed Sheppard, and Rob Dillingham, the Wildcats have pieced together a sharp-shooting basketball team, going into tonight with a stellar 40.8% three-point percentage (3P%; sixth-best). However, their downtown numbers plummet to shooting at a 32.8% clip on the road. To make matters worse, the Cardinals are allowing opponents to shoot the three-ball at a mere 28.7% clip (31st-best).

Limiting the three-point shot won't solve all of Louisville's problems -- they are fully capable of being dominated in the interior -- but it will slow the pace down and allow this game to trend toward the under.

On offense, the Cards will go up against a Kentucky team that ranks 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom). The Cardinals have yet to play a team that fares this well on defense, but when they matched up against a 51st-ranked Virginia Tech D, they mustered only 68 points.

Dating back to 1999, these teams have faced off on 25 occasions -- the game total has surpassed 155.0 points just twice. I'm siding with the under tonight.

Stony Brook at Michigan State

Michigan State -21.5 (-120)

The Stony Brook Seawolves are on a four-game winning streak, but their good fortune stops tonight.

Stony Brook, who ranks 257th on KenPom, has played three teams that currently sit in the top 100 of KenPom's ratings -- St. John's (47th), Nebraska (53rd), and Duquesne (82nd) -- and they lost these games by 16, 21, and 22 points, respectively.

Now, they'll have the venture into East Lansing to take on the 23rd-ranked Michigan State Spartans, a team that has already hit some low spots but is dominating lesser opponents.

The Spartans have six wins and have won all six of their games by at least 17 points, with their average margin of victory standing at a sizable 24.2 points. This includes a monstrous win just last week over the then-sixth-ranked Baylor Bears. And MSU's average margin of victory against teams in the bottom 100 (Stony Brook falls into this category) stands at a whopping 28.7 points.

When targeting MSU to cover the spread, we should be concerned with their depth. Nine players on the Spartans roster are averaging at least 14.7 minutes per game and have played in every contest this season, save for standout Tyson Walker, who missed one game due to injury. This has been helpful and should be of aid tonight. If the game gets out of hand, the Spartans still have plenty of quality athletes who can keep the pace and the lead.

To make matters better for the Spartans, the Seawolves are allowing opponents to shoot the three-ball at a 44.4% clip on the road (fourth-highest). Last season, MSU was known for its three-point proficiency, touting the third-best 3P% in college basketball. They struggled shooting it early this year, but the Spartans seem to be back to their old ways, rocking with a stellar 50.0% 3P% over their last three games.

Stony Brook's defense could hardly be more vulnerable from behind the arc, so I like MSU's chances to run up the score and cover the spread tonight.

Tarleton State at No. 8 Tennessee

Tarleton State +22.5 (-110)

The Tennessee Volunteers should have no problem sailing past the Tarleton State Texans tonight, but I'm not as convinced that the Vols will cover.

Tennessee went on a three-game losing streak to nationally-ranked opponents earlier this season. Beyond this stretch, they have yet to lose a game, though they are winning by an average margin of just 16.4 points during this span -- and this includes just one nationally-ranked opponent (Illinois).

Since a 38-point rout in their season-opener against Tennessee State, the Volunteers have not won a game by more than 21 points. They went up against the 226th-ranked (per BartTorvik) Wofford Terriers and won by 21 points, later followed by a matchup with the 329th-ranked Georgia Southern Eagles, which was won by just 18 points.

Tarleton State ranks 207th and is surrendering just 52.9 field-goal attempts per game (19th-fewest).

The Volunteers, led by Dalton Knecht (16.5 points per game), are impressive on both sides of the court, but they hang their hat on their defense, which ranks fifth-best by adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Texans allow just 67.0 points per game (67th-fewest) while the Volunteers give up 67.3 points per game (71st-fewest). We have a pretty modest 138.5-point game total, and while I wouldn't feel particularly confident in siding with either end of the over/under, I do think the low total will ensure a slow pace of play and keep this game within 22 points.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.