College Basketball Betting Picks for Thursday 1/4/23

The college basketball season always provides a flurry of twists and turns that few saw coming -- especially when March Madness comes around. This can make college basketball one of the most challenging sports to bet on.

Fortunately, we have plenty of tools available that can aid our chances of taking the most favorable college basketball bets. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Best Bets

Penn State at Michigan State

Michigan State -13.5 (-110)

The Michigan State Spartans (8-5, 0-2 Conf) are 13.5-point favorites as they host the Penn State Nittany Lions (7-6, 1-1 Conf).

I'm all over the Spartans.

Despite their five losses, Michigan State continues to boast strong metrics. They're up to 28th in the NET rankings and 19th on KenPom. MSU has been strong on both ends of the floor, ranking 36th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Be wary of putting too much stock in Michigan State's winless conference record. Though they dropped games against Wisconsin (at home by 13) and Nebraska (on the road by seven), they've since rattled off four straight double-digit wins. That includes a 24-point shellacking of Baylor (15th on KenPom) and a 12-point victory over Indiana State (55th).

Most importantly, the Spartans are a perfect 5-0 against Quad 3 and 4 teams.

Penn State is ranked 124th in the NET. They've gone just 1-3 inside the top two quadrants but also have three losses in Quads 3 and 4.

The Nittany Lions are outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They do boast the 16th-highest forced turnover rate (19.9%), but MSU averages just 10.9 turnovers per game, 71st nationally.

Penn State really struggles on the glass where they give up the 12th-highest offensive rebound rate in the country. Michigan State isn't a great offensive rebounding team, but center Mady Sissoko has averaged 2.8 offensive 'boards in just 19.5 minutes per game across their four-game win streak.

The Spartans are finally starting to look like the team many thought they'd be before the season. I'm expecting them to keep rolling and cover as 13.5-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the conference.

Colorado at No. 10 Arizona

Over 159.5 (-110)

Tonight's bout between the Colorado Buffaloes (11-2, 2-0 Conf) and No. 10 Arizona Wildcats (10-3, 1-1 Conf) features the second-highest over/under of the night.

But 159.5 is a tick too low given these two offenses.

Arizona enters tonight averaging 92.3 points per game, good for second in Division I. They rank seventh in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted tempo. They haven't scored fewer than 74 points in any game this season and have eclipsed 80 points in seven straight outings.

As you'd expect, the Wildcats aren't short on high-level scorers. Guard Caleb Love (17.4 points per game) spearheads a roster that features five players averaging double-digit points. All five starters shoot at least 42% from the floor while three of the five shoot over 53%.

Defensively, Arizona has strong metrics -- they're seventh in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.

However, their swift pace has allowed opponents to average 73.4 points per game against them.

It's been even worse of late. Across their last six games, the Wildcats have given up 86 points per game. In three of their last five, they've surrendered over 90 points, and they just let Stanford (76th in adjusted offensive efficiency) drop 100 on them in their most recent outing.

Colorado is no slouch on offense, either. The Buffaloes average 84.2 points per game (25th nationally) and rank 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They, too, play at a fast pace, ranking 87th in adjusted tempo.

Their offense is more funneled than Arizona's. KJ Simpson (21.1 points per game), Tristan da Silva (15.7), and Cody Williams (14.0) are all capable of scoring 20 on any given night -- though they do feature six players who average over 9.0 points per game.

The Buffaloes are better on defense, but they're no stalwarts. Colorado gives up 68.8 points per game (122nd) and ranks 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Yet they haven't played an offense of Arizona's caliber. The Buffaloes have KenPom's 187th-ranked strength of schedule and have faced just one team inside KenPom's top 30. That game (against No. 28 Colorado State) finished with a 171-point total.

Neither offense has been particularly undervalued thus far, as both squads are 7-6 toward the over this season.

Still, Arizona's blistering pace and recent indifference toward defense make the over a strong play tonight.

Looking for more college basketball betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the upcoming college basketball odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.